This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
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Over the course of the entire season, my metrics rank the Patriots with the #10 run defense despite playing the #14 best rushing attacks.
But it’s even better than that now with the return of Milton Williams, their stud defensive lineman.
Williams was healthy Week 1 through Week 11, and then he didn’t return until Week 18.
Look at the splits with Williams on vs. off the field this year.
Williams off the field:
- -0.08 EPA per rush (#11)
- 38% success rate (#11)
- 4.2 YPC (#13)
- 1.5 yards before contact per rush (#25)
- 19% stuff rate (#13)
- 7% explosive run rate (#15)
Williams on the field:
- -0.16 EPA per rush (#2)
- 34% success rate (#5)
- 3.1 YPC (#1)
- 0.64 yards before contact per rush (#1)
- 22% stuff rate (#1)
- 2% explosive run rate (#1)
The difference is massive.
On 151 RB-rushes with Williams on the field this year, only 1 run gained more than 12 yards (0.66%).
It was in the fourth quarter of a Week 10 game against the Bucs with just 2:33 remaining and the Patriots leading, when backup RB Sean Tucker came into the game and took a carry 18 yards.
During the games when Williams played, the Patriots did face a fair share of above average rushing attacks:
- Week 2, they held De’Von Achane to 30 yards on 11 carries for 2.7 YPC and a long of 9.
- Week 3, they held Jaylen Warren to 47 yards on 18 carries for 2.6 YPC and a long of 11.
- Week 4, they held Rico Dowdle to 32 yards on 9 carries for 3.6 YPC and a long of 10.
- Week 5, they held James Cook to 49 yards on 15 carries for 3.3 YPC and a long of 9.
- Week 9, they held Bijan Robinson to 46 yards on 12 carries for 3.8 YPC and a long of 15.
- Week 18, they held Jaylen Wright to 23 yards on 13 carries for 1.8 YPC and a long of 7.
- Last game, they held RJ Harvey to 37 yards on 13 carries for 2.8 YPC and a long of 9.
Those are the only games they played with Williams against top-15 rushing attacks, and that is how the lead RB performed for their opponents.
Statistically, the Seahawks rushing offense is WORSE than all of those rushing offenses.
None of those RBs cleared even 3.8 yards per carry, with most averaging far worse.
None of those RBs even hit 50 rushing yards in the entire game, with most totaling far worse.
Their other playoff games?
They held Woody Marks to 17 yards on 14 carries for 1.2 YPC and a long of 8.
They held Kimani Vidal to 31 yards on 11 carries for 2.8 YPC and a long of 10.
This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
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In the Klint Kubiak offense with Sam Darnold at quarterback, it’s absolutely no secret that the Seahawks’ goal is to run the ball often and generate shots from play action.
This is not a pass-first team by any stretch.
Seattle has the #1 highest run rate (49%) over the course of the entire game.
In non-reactionary play calls, aka offensive intent from the play caller, on first half early downs, the Seahawks’ 51% run rate ranks #4 highest in the NFL.
This seems like it could set up a problem for the Seahawks.
They are the #4 highest run rate team (51%) on first half early downs and are facing a Patriots run defense that ranks #1 in the NFL with Williams.
Other teams have tried running the ball against the Patriots on first half early downs, and it obviously hasn’t worked out for them.
So, will the Seahawks “do what we do” and run the ball at a high rate in the first quarter and into the entire first half?
It feels like the Arrested Development scene where Tobias, a therapist, proposed to his wife that they should explore having an open relationship to explore extramarital encounters, which he advised for some of his clients.
He pitched it as a way to improve their emotional relationship at the expense of their physical relationship.
His wife, Lindsay, asked him, “Well, did it work for those people?” To which Tobias replied, “Well, no. It never does. These people somehow delude themselves into thinking it might…. But… it might work for us.”
Or, could Kubiak pivot into a far more balanced approach out of the gate in an attempt to avoid first down runs that fail and set up the Seahawks in second and obvious pass situations?
It’s hard to guess.
But I did parse out the three strongest run defenses the Seahawks played this year aside from the Rams, a very familiar opponent:
The Texans
The Jaguars
The Colts
All three ranked in the top 10 against the run this year.
In the first half of those three games, all of which were Seahawks wins by between 2 and 8 points, Seattle had a 58% pass rate on early downs in the first half.
That’s vastly higher than their 49% first half early down run rate over the course of the entire season, which ranked #4 highest in the NFL.
In fact, a 58% pass rate on first half early downs would have ranked #11 in the NFL this year.
Kubiak has shown his ability to adapt.
However, this is a unique game, being that it’s the Super Bowl, and Mike Macdonald, a defensive-minded head coach, surely will have input over the Seahawks overall strategy, even on offense.
I honestly would be surprised (pleasantly) if the Seahawks came out with a pass first approach, but it doesn’t even need to be heavily pass first to help be more efficient.
It just cannot be as run-centric as they have averaged over the course of the season, particularly if those runs are not very efficient.
This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!
