2026 Expected Fantasy Points Tool

Sharp Football Analysis is excited to debut our Expected Fantasy Points Tool as part of our Fantasy Football Draft Kit.

Click here for more information about our Fantasy Football Draft Kit!

How to Use the Expected Fantasy Points Tool

Our expected fantasy points tool allows you to get a clear view of a player’s usage, helping you identify potential bounce-back and bust candidates.

For instance, Justin Jefferson was one of the biggest fantasy disappointments in 2025.

Still, his usage last season suggests he will be right back in the WR1 conversation if Minnesota gets better quarterback play this season.

Jefferson was the WR8 in expected fantasy points last year, but he scored 31.3 fewer points than expected.

He was 22.7 points over expected in 2024, 11 over in 2023 in just 10 games, 15.4 over in 2022, and 7.8 over in 2021.

We also saw him perform much better when Carson Wentz was at quarterback last season.

Jefferson averaged 2.43 yards per route run with Wentz on the field last season, averaging nearly 100 yards per game.

Using the tool, we can see that Jefferson finished 1.5 fantasy points above his expected total from Week 3 to Week 8, when Wentz was at quarterback for the Vikings.

We just need Kyler Murray to be as good as Wentz for Jefferson to jump back into the WR1 mix.

You can make a similar case for Ashton Jeanty, assuming the Raiders are better up front after their offseason additions and coaching changes and are better overall on offense with either Kirk Cousins or Fernando Mendoza at quarterback.

On the other end, there should probably be some concern about Matthew Stafford after last year’s MVP-level campaign.

Stafford threw 46 touchdowns against a 37.7 expected total.

That expected total still ranked No. 1 among all quarterbacks, so he was getting the opportunities, but he also set an easy career high with a 7.7% touchdown rate on his throws.

Because he offers nothing as a runner, Stafford has to maintain that elite efficiency to be a weekly fantasy starter, and his performances with the Rams do not suggest he will.

2024: 20 passing touchdowns, 23.4 expected passing touchdowns
2023: 24 passing touchdowns, 28.3 expected passing touchdowns
2022: 10 passing touchdowns, 15.4 expected passing touchdowns
2021: 41 passing touchdowns, 36.5 expected passing touchdowns

Stafford is throwing to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, so it is not shocking that he was so efficient last season.

But we have also seen him be less efficient in this system in the very recent past.

Expecting some regression makes sense, and that is a big concern for a quarterback with literally zero rushing upside.