The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals Sunday afternoon game.
| Carolina | Rank | @ | Cincinnati | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | Spread | -8.5 | ||
| 17.5 | Implied Total | 26 | ||
| 19.8 | 22 | Points/Gm | 23.3 | 13 |
| 23.3 | 21 | Points All./Gm | 20.5 | 13 |
| 55.8 | 32 | Plays/Gm | 64.9 | 9 |
| 66.9 | 30 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.8 | 15 |
| 5.3 | 19 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 18 |
| 5.4 | 11 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.4 | 10 |
| 41.93% | 14 | Rush% | 35.26% | 29 |
| 58.07% | 19 | Pass% | 64.74% | 4 |
| 45.23% | 27 | Opp. Rush % | 45.02% | 25 |
| 54.77% | 6 | Opp. Pass % | 54.98% | 8 |
- Carolina has played just one team with a winning record on the season, the fewest in the league.
- The Panthers are averaging 5.9 yards per play with P.J. Walker under center compared to 4.9 yards per play prior.
- Carolina running backs are 11th in success rate (40.0%) per carry and second in total EPA (7.6) on carries the past two weeks.
- The Bengals have a 57.9% success rate (26th) and are allowing 4.45 YPC (20th) to opposing running backs without D.J. Reader on the field.
- With Reader on the field, the Bengals had a 78.9% defensive success rate against running back carries (first) while allowing 2.89 YPC to backs (first).
- The Bengals allowed a touchdown on 3-of-5 second half drives last week after not allowing a touchdown on 33 opponent drives Weeks 1-7.
- The Bengals averaged 4.6 yards per play on Monday night (their second lowest in a game this season) while allowing a season-high 6.4 yards per play defensively.
- Cincinnati is last in the NFL in the rate of rushing attempts to gain 10 or more yards (7.8%) and last in the rate of those runs (4.7%) on carries from running backs.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Joe Burrow: In his first game without Ja’Marr Chase, not much went right for Burrow and the Bengals offense on Monday night. Burrow had his worst fantasy game of the season, closing as the QB22 (13.5 points).
After throwing for 8.1 and 11.5 yards per attempt the previous two weeks, Burrow threw for just 6.6 Y/A.
37.1% of Burrow’s pass attempts were at or behind the line of scrimmage this past week (third highest in Week 8) after a 25.9% rate prior. As a byproduct, Burrow’s average depth of target was just 5.7 yards downfield, which was 27th in Week 8.
The Bengals still have viable targets and skill players offensively, but this was not an encouraging start following up the loss of Chase. Chase has not been put on injured reserve, but it sounds as if it will be a longshot that he plays this weekend.
Carolina is allowing 13.7 passing points per game (17th), allowing 6.9 yards per pass attempt (ninth), and a 3.9% touchdown rate (18th) to opposing passers.
Prior to those boom weeks against depleted New Orleans and Atlanta defenses, Burrow was camping out in the QB10-QB12 range weekly, which feels like an appropriate area to treat him this week. I would not overextend myself to stream for him, but there are passers in that same area as Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins I have more confidence in this week.
