Week 8 was better from a viewing and fantasy standpoint with the early slate of games exceeding expectations with high scores.
Last week's start and sit options were the most successful (except for the exclusion of Cade Otton).
With only the 49ers and Steelers on bye in Week 9, the fantasy player pool remains large, allowing some smoother start/sit decisions.
Week 9 Fantasy Football Starts:
| Week 9 Starts | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | Chiefs |
| Chase Brown | RB | Bengals |
| Josh Downs | WR | Colts |
| Cade Otton | TE | Bucs |
Week 9 Fantasy Football Sits:
| Week 9 Sits | Position | Team |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | Jaguars |
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | Chargers |
| Keon Coleman | WR | Bills |
| Zach Ertz | TE | Commanders |
Quarterback Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Patrick Mahomes in Week 9
The two-time MVP has now gone 12 straight regular season games without a top-12 fantasy quarterback finish but is a starting candidate against the Buccaneers in Week 9.
The Buccaneers have allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (thanks to Kirk Cousins) while allowing the fourth-most passing yards against per game and sixth-most passing touchdowns per game.
Travis Kelce is coming off the best regular season game in a calendar year in terms of both receptions and yards, and DeAndre Hopkins has had more time to become acclimated with his new team.
Both factors provide Mahomes a chance to get his passing stats on track.
Mahomes will not live up to his fantasy draft position, but this matchup provides a ceiling outcome as the Buccaneers have allowed the third-most rushing yards and the most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season.
Honorable Mention: Joe Flacco
If you believe the Vikings are a good football team despite their two-game losing streak, Flacco is a deeper start option in Week 9.
Despite having an elite defense, the Vikings have played with a lead for the majority of the season, which results in opponents abandoning the run game.
Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 41.3 passing attempts per game against the Vikings. Based on volume alone, that provides a floor for fantasy scoring.
A dome game as a five-point underdog should provide a solid fantasy environment for Flacco in his first start with Anthony Richardson healthy.
Sit Trevor Lawrence in Week 9
Lost in some of the noise of the Jaguars' 2-6 start has been the improvement of Lawrence over the past month.
Lawrence has averaged 276 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and completed 71.9% of passes over the past four starts, but the Jaguars could struggle on offense against the Eagles.
Cluster injuries hit the receiving room as all three starting wide receivers could be unavailable on Sunday, and to make matters worse, the offensive line traded one of its best players.
The Eagles defense is starting to improve in its first year with Vic Fangio, and I’m fading the Jaguars offense on Sunday.
Running back Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Chase Brown in Week 9
Brown has handled 60% of the Bengals running back carries while the Bengals are leading. With the Bengals a touchdown favorite at home, Brown is an ideal Week 9 start.
The Raiders are allowing 4.6 yards per rush to running backs and have allowed 17 explosive rushes this season, the seventh most in the NFL.
With increased usage weekly, Brown could see his most productive fantasy scoring week of the season in a favorable game script against a defense that ranks in the top 10 of average fantasy points allowed to running backs.
The Chase Brown second year breakout could take a big step forward in Week 9.
Sit J.K. Dobbins in Week 9
Every time Justin Herbert hands the ball off for a run play an angel loses its wings, but this has become less of a trending concern as the Chargers have struggled to run the ball in recent weeks.
Since Week 3, Dobbins has averaged 3.2 yards per rush and faces a Browns defense that ranks sixth in fantasy points per game to running backs, making Dobbins a Week 9 sit candidate.
What has hindered the Chargers run game has been the lack of consistency. Over the past five games, Dobbins has not gained or lost yardage on 22.4% of attempts, putting the Chargers behind on down and distance.
Dobbins has not finished a game with a positive EPA on rush attempts over that stretch, which has forced Greg Roman to utilize the arm of Herbert.
The Chargers have passed over expectations for consecutive games, and Herbert’s early season foot injury seems to be in the rearview mirror.
Dobbins was an easy volume play earlier in the season, but with efficiency dropping, his fantasy output has cooled off.
He has not finished as a top-12 running back fantasy scorer in any of his last five games.
With the Chargers leaning on Herbert more and a difficult matchup, Dobbins could be considered as a sit this week.
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Wide Receiver Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Josh Downs in Week 9
No one is more excited for their own production with the decision to start Joe Flacco than Downs, and he becomes an auto-start in Week 9 and onward with Flacco under center.
Flacco has targeted Downs on 33.3% of his routes, a large jump from the 21.1% rate with Anthony Richardson.
The targets are more efficient from a completion standpoint as Downs has caught 79.3% of Flacco’s targets, but Downs did generate double the YAC with Richardson.
Regardless, Flacco is a massive upgrade for Downs as he is averaging 1.91 PPR points per target with Flacco compared to 1.69 PPR points per target with Richardson.
More targets and more efficient targets are a great combination for Downs to be a weekly fantasy contributor.
Start Josh Downs in Week 9 and moving forward with Flacco at quarterback.
Honorable Mention: Jalen Coker
The UDFA rookie had six targets on Sunday with Bryce Young under center, giving the backup quarterback and second string receiver narrative more ammunition.
With Diontae Johnson traded, Coker’s role should grow as he has been by far the most efficient Panthers receiver in terms of EPA added with 1.02 EPA/target, double the next best receiver on the list.
Coker has a good matchup against the Saints, who have surrendered more points to slot receivers this season. If you spend your FAAB on Coker, this is a fine week to start the rookie.
Sit Keon Coleman in Week 9
Coleman has had his two most productive games in terms of yards and targets since the acquisition of Amari Cooper, much to the chagrin of those who dropped him.
I’m not going to comment on Coleman’s production past Week 9, but this is a difficult matchup for the rookie receiver and more favorable for Khalil Shakir, the Bills' best zone receiver.
Coleman was held off the score sheet in the first matchup of the season against the Dolphins.
It is difficult to imagine that will be the case again this week, but it will be difficult for Coleman to provide a double digit PPR fantasy score.
Galaxy Brain Honorable Mention: DeVonta Smith
Smith had a solid game last week, but there is a game state against the Jaguars in which Smith is limited to under a handful of targets.
The Jaguars want to play more man coverage, which favors A.J. Brown, and the Jaguars struggle to defend running back passes.
If the Eagles build an early lead, it will be difficult for the Jaguars to punch back, and Jalen Hurts may not need to throw often in the second half.
Now it would take a lot of receiver depth to sit Smith, made even more difficult because of injuries, but it is tough to envision a ceiling outcome for Smith on Sunday.
Tight End Lineup Advice, Fantasy Football
Start Cade Otton in Week 9
Nothing is certain in 2024 except death, taxes, and the DFS chalk tight end scoring multiple touchdowns.
I am a week late to the Cade Otton year three breakout.
Otton will surpass his career high in receptions in the next couple of weeks as he has become Baker Mayfield’s safety blanket without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Otton has been targeted on 22.2% of passes with Godwin and Evans off the field, and that combined with the Buccaneers averaging over 35 pass attempts provides a safe fantasy floor at the tight end position.
Otton is a plug-and-play tight end until Evans returns from injury, and this week he has the top scoring tight end in his range of outcomes as the Chiefs are allowing the second most fantasy points to the position this season.
Sit Zack Ertz in Week 9
Before last week, the last time Ertz had 11 targets was Week 2 in 2022, so don’t chase last week’s boxscore with Ertz as he is a sit candidate in Week 9.
The Commanders face a different defense this week, one that has yielded the fourth-fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season.
In their previous matchup against the Giants, Ertz managed only four targets as teams tend to attack elsewhere against this defense.
The Giants have not allowed a touchdown to opposing tight ends and have allowed the third-fewest targets to opposing tight ends.
Bet on the Commanders' running game and Terry McLaurin this week and sit Zach Ertz.
