2023 NFL Mock Draft From Ryan McCrystal

Ryan McCrystal, the #5 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his 2023 NFL Mock Draft — making predictions for every team and every pick in the first round. Teams without a first-round pick are also included. 

The 2023 NFL Draft season is finally here.

In this NFL mock draft, I’m projecting what I think each team will do based on a combination of draft needs, available talent, GM tendencies, and scheme fits.

To simplify the process, no trades are projected in this version, which may lead to some players (especially quarterbacks) coming off the board slightly lower in this mock draft than they will on draft day.

Reminder: there are 31 first-round picks this season with the forfeiture of the Miami Dolphins’ first-round pick.

All stats are from TruMedia/PFF, unless otherwise noted.

2023 NFL Mock Draft

Earlier 2023 NFL mock drafts from Ryan McCrystal:

• NFL Mock Draft 3.0 (Mar 13)
• NFL Mock Draft 2.0 (Mar 10)
• NFL Mock Draft 1.0 (Feb 27)

1. Carolina Panthers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Stroud

Best Draft Targets for the Panthers with the ninth pick:

• C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young: Owner David Tepper is desperate for a quarterback to turn his franchise around. He’s made offers for every big-name quarterback on the trade market in recent years and always come up short. Now he’s going to get his guy, and it’s almost certainly going to be Stroud or Young. Although Anthony Richardson has his supporters, even those optimistic on Richardson’s future acknowledge he need time to sit and learn — Tepper is not going to sign up for that. 

Who calls the shots in the Panthers’ draft room?

GM Scott Fitterer (third year) will have final say over the Panthers roster for the first time in his tenure, taking that role from Matt Rhule. Despite the new power structure, head coach Frank Reich is expected to have significant input. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Panthers heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 20.8% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 21st)

2. Houston Texans, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE

Best Draft Targets for the Texans with the second pick:

• Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud: GM Nick Caserio spent most of his career in New England, and we know of the Patriots’ affinity for Alabama players (due to Bill Belichick’s friendship with Nick Saban). We don’t know to what degree Caserio shares that bias, but he did draft two of Saban’s players last year. Both Young and Stroud have the football IQ Caserio likely values in a quarterback. 
• Will Anderson Jr.: We now know Nick Caserio may not get his top choice at quarterback, which slightly decreases the odds Houston takes a quarterback with this selection. With multiple first-round picks, Houston may be content to land the best pass-rusher with this selection, and roll the dice that someone falls to them later. And, although this is less significant, Houston also has multiple first-round picks in 2024, which should be a stronger class of quarterbacks. 

Who calls the shots in the Texans’ draft room?

GM Nick Caserio (third year) has final say over the roster. In previous years, executive VP Jack Easterby (third year) was heavily involved in all aspects of the organization, but Easterby has since been fired, potentially giving more control to Caserio. With DeMeco Ryans in his first year as a head coach, Caserio likely has firm control over the roster. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Texans heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 25.9% of dropbacks (ranked 29th)
• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 29% of carries (ranked 29th)
• Ranked 26th in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (49.0%)
• Ranked 27th in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (8.0)
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 15.7% of carries (ranked 31st)

3. Arizona Cardinals, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Tyree Wilson, EDGE

Best Draft Targets for the Cardinals with the third pick:

• Will Anderson Jr.: The Cardinals may also be a winner in the Panthers/Bears trade, as it increases the probability Anderson falls to them. If he does, he’s a fairly obvious choice for Arizona. New head coach Jonathan Gannon needs a weapon on the edge for his defense. 
• Tyree Wilson: If Anderson is gone and Arizona still wants to add a pass rusher, Wilson is a viable backup plan. Anderson, given his early breakout and extra attention at Alabama, gets more hype, but Wilson emerged as an elite pass rusher and legitimate top-five prospect during the 2022 season. 
• Jalen Carter: Gannon and defensive coordinator Nick Rallis were in Philly last year when the Eagles spent a first-round pick on Carter’s former teammate Jordan Davis. Carter is essentially a more well-rounded version of Davis. 
• Trade Down: If Stroud and Young are not the first two selections, the value of this pick skyrockets, as someone will want to jump Indy for a quarterback. Even if they’re gone, it’s possible someone will want to trade up for Will Levis or Anthony Richardson. 

Who calls the shots in the Cardinals’ draft room?

First-year GM Monti Ossenfort likely has final say over the Cardinals roster, though the team has not officially confirmed this. Ossenfort is a former director of college scouting (Patriots) and director of player personnel (Titans), and his assistant GM is former Lions director of college scouting Dave Sears.  

Key Stats & Notes for the Cardinals heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 23.8% of dropbacks (ranked 23rd)
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 14.1% of carries (ranked 30th)
• Ranked 20th in pressure rate generated (32.1%)

4. Indianapolis Colts, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Bryce Young, QB

Best Draft Targets for the Colts with the fourth pick:

• Trade Up: The Colts can’t stay put and assume a quarterback will fall to them 一 even if their target is Will Levis. Assuming they’re done playing musical chairs with washed-up veterans, this is the year to move up and get either Stroud or Young. 
• Trade Down: If they don’t get a quarterback, it probably means someone out-bid them for the Bears’ selection. The best backup plan is to trade down and stock up on 2024 picks, which will make it easier to pull off a similar trade next year for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. 
• Will Anderson Jr. or Tyree Wilson: The Panthers move to number one greatly increases the odds that one of the top two pass-rushers is on the board for Indy. If this is the case, and the don’t Colts opt for a quarterback or a trade down, Anderson or Wilson would likely be the backup plan. With Yannick Ngakoue expected to sign elsewhere, the Colts need a new premier pass-rusher.

Who Calls the Shots in Colts Draft Room?

GM Chris Ballard (seventh year) has final say over roster construction.

Key Stats & Notes for the Colts heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 23.5% of dropbacks (ranked 22nd)
• Ranked 29th in pressure rate generated (29.8%)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 18.6% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 28th)

5. Seattle Seahawks, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Jalen Carter, DT

Best Draft Targets for the Seahawks with the fifth pick:

• Christian Gonzalez: This doesn’t appear to be a need Seattle needs to address, but it’s hard to overlook how Gonzalez’s length and athleticism perfectly fits the mold of a Seahawks cornerback.
• Edge Rusher: Seattle’s pass rush wasn’t terrible last year, but they did lack that one player opposing offenses needed to plan around. Adding Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson could elevate this unit to a much higher level. 
• Quarterback: The Seahawks will probably re-sign Geno Smith but they have to consider taking advantage of their draft position and multiple first-round picks to move up for the quarterback of the future. 
• Jalen Carter: Carter appeared here in my first few mock drafts but following his dreadful pro day performance, he no longer looks like a viable top-10 pick. Despite the talent, there are just too many questions regarding his off-field decisions and work ethic. 

Who calls the shots in Seahawks’ draft room?

Head coach Pete Carroll (14th year) has final say over personnel decisions, but works in tandem with GM John Schneider (14th year).

Key Stats & Notes for the Seahawks heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Gabe Jackson ranked 64th out of 69 guards in pressure rate allowed among players with at least 200 snaps in pass protection.
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 11.8% of carries (ranked 19th)
• Ranked 26th in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (7.9)

6. Detroit Lions, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Van Ness

Best Draft Targets for the Lions with the sixth pick:

• EDGE: Adding another young, athletic edge-rusher to pair with Aidan Hutchinson could have a ripple effect on the defense, improving the performance of every other unit as well. Tyree Wilson, Will Anderson, Myles Murphy and Lukas Van Ness are all potential top-10 picks. 
• Cornerback: Detroit’s secondary was torched last year. Jeff Okudah will probably get another year to prove himself, but the starting job on the other side is up for grabs. Christian Gonzalez, Joey Porter Jr., Devon Witherspoon, and Cam Smith are all possible targets. 
• Quarterback: Although Jared Goff has exceeded expectations in Detroit, he still isn’t a franchise quarterback to build around. Detroit has the draft capital to trade up for Young or Stroud if this is the year they want to land Goff’s replacement. 

Who calls the shots in Lions’ draft room?

GM Brad Holmes (third year) has final say over personnel decisions. This will be his first year working without his director of college scouting, Dave Sears, who took the assistant GM job in Arizona. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Lions heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Receivers had a 10.8% drop rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield (ranked 31st)
• Allowed NFL-worst 75 completions at 15 or more yards downfield
• Ranked 30th in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (8.2)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 20.7% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 22nd)

7. Las Vegas Raiders, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Levis

Best Draft Targets for the Raiders with the seventh pick:

• Quarterback: The Panthers trade likely eliminated the Raiders from contention for Stroud or Young. As a result, gambling on Will Levis or Anthony Richardson is a more realistic option. That said, the addition of Jimmy Garoppolo means they can afford to wait on a quarterback if they don’t love their options. 
• Offensive Line: The Raiders must protect Garoppolo better than they did Derek Carr. Georgia’s Broderick Jones, Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski, or Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr. could be options to step in at right tackle. 

Who calls the shots in Raiders’ draft room?

GM Dave Ziegler (second year, spent previous nine seasons in Patriots front office) has final say over the roster, though head coach Josh McDaniels (second year) likely has significant input. McDaniels and Ziegler were college teammates at John Carroll and it was McDaniels who helped Ziegler get his first NFL job with the Broncos when McDaniels was their head coach.

Key Stats & Notes for the Raiders heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.4% of dropbacks (ranked 24th)
• Alex Bars and Dylan Parham ranked 65th and 68th, respectively, in pressure rate allowed among 69 guards with at least 200 snaps in pass protection. 
• Ranked 27th in pressure rate generated (30.0%)

8. Atlanta Falcons, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Nolan Smith, EDGE

Best Draft Targets for the Falcons with the eighth pick:

• Cornerback: While GM Terry Fontenot worked in the Saints front office, few teams aggressively added talent to the secondary via the draft more than the Saints. Fontentot has not invested heavily in the position since coming to Atlanta, but the unit has underperformed 一 even A.J. Terrell took a step back last year 一 and it could be time for some changes.
• Edge: Arguably the league’s worst pass-rush unit could use an upgrade. With five pass-rushers in the top-10 conversation (Anderson, Wilson, Van Ness, Murphy, Smith), someone will be on the board. 
• Offensive Line: The Falcons don’t have an obvious weak link on the offensive line, but the unit has not been the sum of its parts in recent years. Right tackle Kaleb McGary is a free agent, so that could be the spot that gets upgraded first. Ohio State’s Paris Johnson and Georgia’s Broderick Jones are the most likely targets. 
• Quarterback: Desmond Ridder was good enough in his four games as a rookie to get another look, but the Falcons’ third-round investment in him should not be enough to make us assume the team won’t consider the quarterbacks in this class. 

Who calls the shots in the Falcons’ draft room?

GM Terry Fontenot (second year) has the final say over roster construction.

Key Stats & Notes for the Falcons heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Ranked 31st in pressure rate generated (25.8%)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 13.7% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 32nd)
• Ranked 26th in completions allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (55)
• Contacted opposing running backs in backfield on 18% of carries (ranked 32nd)

9. Chicago Bears, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Johnson

Best Draft Targets for the Bears with the first pick:

• Offensive Line: Ryan Poles is already an early winner in the 2023 NFL draft. He pulled off a trade for extra assets and added a significant weapon for Justin Fields (D.J. Moore). If he can also upgrade the offensive line, the Bears offense could look significantly different this fall. Paris Johnson Jr. is built like a prototypical left tackle, but also has starting experience at guard. That versatility could be especially enticing to the Bears, as they try to rebuild the unit. 

Who calls the shots in the Bears’ draft room?

GM Ryan Poles (second year) has final say over roster construction. Poles was previously with the Chiefs since 2009, most recently working under GM Brett Veach as director of player personnel.

Key Stats & Notes for the Bears heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Braxton Jones allowed a 6.3% pressure rate when lined up at left tackle, ranked 29th out of 35 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at left tackle.
• Ranked 32nd in pressure rate generated (24.2%)
• Ranked 32nd in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (8.5)
• Ranked 28th in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (51.0%)
• Allowed three or more yards before contact to running backs on 28% of carries (ranked 29th)

10. Philadelphia Eagles, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Devon Witherspoon, CB

Best Draft Targets for the Eagles with the 10th pick:

• Offensive Line: 33-year-old Lane Johnson is still playing at a high level, but few teams have dealt with offensive line injuries more than Philadelphia in recent years. The ability to add depth and a potential future replacement for Johnson will be enticing. Ohio State’s Paris Johnson or Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski could be ideal fits due to the potential to play guard or tackle.
• Defensive Tackle: The interior defensive line is the Eagles’ most glaring weakness 一 hence, the in-season additions of Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph. There’s a steep dropoff at this position once Jalen Carter and Bryan Bresee are off the board, so it would make sense for Philly to snag one of them with this selection. 
• Cornerback: This briefly looked like an area Philly should address, but with Darius Slay and James Bradberry returning, it’s no longer a pressing need. Illinois’s Devon Witherspoon or Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez could still be appealing based purely on value. 

Who calls the shots in the Eagles’ draft room?

GM Howie Roseman (12th year) has final say over the roster. Roseman has held the title of general manager and/or executive vice president of football operations since 2010, however, he did not control the roster during Andy Reid’s or Chip Kelly’s tenures. Roseman gained full control of personnel decisions in 2016.

Key Stats & Notes for the Eagles heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 26.8% of dropbacks (ranked 31st)
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 12.6% of carries (ranked 23rd)
• Contacted opposing running backs in backfield on 23% of carries (ranked 18th)

11. Tennessee Titans, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Peter Skoronski, OL

Best Draft Targets for the Titans with the 11th pick:

• Offensive Line: Right tackle was already a potential area of need, but the offseason release of Taylor Lewan created a massive hole at left tackle as well. Ohio State’s Paris Johnson, Georgia’s Broderick Jones, and Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski are the most likely targets. 
• Quarterback: Tennessee still has Malik Willis as a developmental prospect, but he was only a third-round investment 一 and selected by a previous front office. Although they’re in an awkward draft position for targeting a quarterback, we can’t rule it out. 

Who calls the shots in the Titans’ draft room?

The Titans have refused to address this question since hiring Ran Carthon this offseason. Former GM Jon Robinson had final say, but it was Robinson who hired Mike Vrabel, making that distinction easier. Vrabel’s tenure may now give him more sway than Carthon, who was previously the 49ers’ director of player personnel. Director of college scouting Jon Salge (seventh year) will likely be heavily involved as well. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Titans heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Ryan Tannehill generated an EPA of -1 or worse on 13.6% of dropbacks without pressure (ranked 40th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks)
• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 28.4% of dropbacks (ranked 32nd)
• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 28% of carries (ranked 27th)
• Ranked 31st in completions allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (65)

12. Houston Texans, Draft Pick Prediction: Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Anthony Richardson, QB

Best Draft Targets for the Texans with the 12th pick:

• Anthony Richardson or Will Levis: If Houston passes on a quarterback with the second pick, it could have the option to draft one here (or in a trade up). Both quarterbacks are flawed, but Houston has already expressed interest in Jimmy Garoppolo, who could start in 2022 while the rookie learns from the bench.
• Defensive Line: New head coach Demeco Ryans relied on a deep defensive line rotation in San Francisco. Due to his size, Calijah Kancey won’t be a fit in every scheme, but Ryans averaged 60 plays per game with four defensive lineman last year 一 that’s the type of scheme that can use Kancey as an interior pass-rusher. 
• Edge: Houston has holes everywhere, but given the available talent in this class, we should assume they’ll be considering a pass rusher with this selection. Myles Murphy, Lukas Van Ness, and Nolan Smith are all options for who could be on the board. 
• Wide Receiver: If Houston adds a quarterback with its first selection, adding another young weapon such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnson, or Jordan Addison could be the follow-up move 一 though there’s probably better value at the position on Day 2. 

See second pick for more on Texans’ draft plans. 

13. New York Jets, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Broderick Jones, OT

Best Draft Targets for the Jets with the 13th pick:

• Wide Receiver: This is unlikely to be the primary goal of this selection, but if the top offensive linemen are off the board, building an elite receiving corps would be appealing. It’s also worth noting Corey Davis is entering the final year of his contract, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be a natural fit in his role.
• Offensive Line: Nothing has gone right for Mekhi Becton since his promising rookie year in 2020. At this point, the Jets probably can’t count on him due to a combination of injuries and concerns about his work ethic. Georgia’s Broderick Jones, Ohio State’s Paris Johnson, or Oklahoma’s Anton Harris could be options with this selection. 
• Quarterback: We’re expecting the quarterback situation to be addressed with a veteran addition, but until that happens we have to include the Jets on the list of teams in the mix for a quarterback in this year’s draft class. 

Who calls the shots in the Jets’ draft room?

GM Joe Douglas (fifth year) has final say over personnel decisions.

Key Stats & Notes for the Jets heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Zach Wilson had the second-worst completion percentage above expectation (-6.1%) per NextGenStats
• Wilson had a 56.8% catchable pass rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield, per Sports Info Solutions (only quarterback under 60%)
• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 32% of carries (ranked 31st)
• Max Mitchell allowed a 6.3% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 30th out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle

14. New England Patriots, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR

Best Draft Targets for the Patriots with the 14th pick:

• Cornerback: The Patriots relied on a patchwork secondary last year, and could use a true lockdown corner to bolster the unit. Belichick has always leaned on man coverage at a high rate, and Illinois’s Devon Witherspoon has plenty of experience in that type of system under former Belichick assistant Bret Bielema. Joey Porter Jr.’s physical play could also make him an attractive option.
• Wide Receiver: The Patriots need to determine if Mac Jones is deserving of an extension, and to do so they must give him some weapons. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison are probably the most polished weapons in this class and capable of producing immediately. 
• Safety: Devin McCourty is a free agent and, even if he returns, he’ll be 36 years old in August and it’s time to start considering life without him. Alabama’s Brian Branch is a potential target for Belichick in the first round.
• Offensive Line: This unit underperformed last year and has a few key players set to hit free agency, most notably former first-round pick Isaiah Wynn. The top prospects may be off the board already, but if someone such as Paris Johnson or Broderick Jones were to unexpectedly fall, New England may be a landing spot.  

Who calls the shots in the Patriots’ draft room?

Head coach Bill Belichick (23rd year) has final say over personnel decisions. Matt Groh was promoted to director of player personnel last offseason after one season as the Patriots’ director of college scouting. Aside from Belichick, this remains a relatively inexperienced front office due to the recent losses of Nick Casserio (Texans) and Dave Ziegler (Raiders). 

Key Stats & Notes for the Patriots heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Mac Jones had a boom-bust ratio of 1.0, ranked 38th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks (boom-bust ratio: plays with +1 EPA or higher compared to plays of -1 EPA or worse)
• Trent Brown allowed a 6.3% pressure rate when lined up at left tackle, ranked 28th out of 35 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at left tackle
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 19% of carries (ranked 30th)

15. Green Bay Packers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Brian Branch, DB

Best Draft Targets for the Packers with the 15th pick:

• Bryan Bresee: This selection wouldn’t be purely about need, but fits a trend for the Packers. Bresee is an elite talent who’s still raw in his technique. That fits the mold of a common Packers draft pick, as they are one of the organizations comfortable spending a first-round pick on a high-upside prospect in need of development (take Rashaan Gary and Jordan Love as examples).
• Safety: Maybe Green Bay already address this need by signing Tarvarius Moore, but that feels like more of a backup plan than the primary option for replacing Adrian Amos. Alabama’s Brian Branch is probably one of the few rookies capable of stepping into Amos’s shoes immediately.
• Wide Receiver: Although GM Brian Gutekunst has under-invested in the wide receiver position, he should be in position to land one of the top prospects in this year’s class. Someone with experience in the slot 一 Jordan Addison or Jaxon Smith-Njigba一 would be the ideal complement to Christian Watson, who is better suited for a role on the outside.

Who calls the shots in the Packers’ draft room?

GM Brian Gutekunst (fifth year) has final say over the roster, but Gutekunst, director of football operations Russ Ball, and head coach Matt LaFleur all report directly to president/CEO Mark Murphy. This structure theoretically gives more personnel influence to Ball and LaFleur than if they reported directly to the GM, as most front offices are organized.

Key Stats & Notes for the Packers heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Yosh Nijman allowed a 7.7% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 34th out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle
• Receivers had a 10.3% drop rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield (ranked 29th)
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 13.6% of carries (ranked 28th)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 18.4% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 29th)
• Ranked 32nd in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (57.6%)

16. Washington Commanders, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Dawand Jones, OT, Ohio State

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Jones

Best Draft Targets for the Commanders with the 16th pick:

• Offensive Line: The offensive line was a mess last year, making it an obvious area to target with this selection. Although most of last year’s unit remains under contract, expect Washington to add a rookie at some point and shuffle guys around in training camp. This selection is likely the floor for the top tier of offensive line prospects. 
• Quarterback: The Commanders will likely give Sam Howell the 2023 season to prove himself, but they’d be foolish to not take a close look at this year’s quarterback class. If they fall in love with someone (Anthony Richardson?), perhaps they could snag another quarterback. 

Who calls the shots in the Commanders’ draft room?

Head coach Ron Rivera (fourth year) has final say, with input from GM Martin Mayhew (fourth year)

Key Stats & Notes for the Commanders heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Carson Wentz had a 61.6% catchable pass rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield (ranked 39th out of 41) per Sports Info Solutions
• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.6% of dropbacks (ranked 25th)
• Charles Leno allowed a 5.4% pressure rate when lined up at left tackle, ranked 21st out of 35 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at left tackle
• Cornelius Lucas allowed an 8.7% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 35th out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle.
• Sam Cosmi allowed a 5.5% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 23rd out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle
• Generated three or more yards before contact for running backs on 19% of carries (ranked 30th)

17. Pittsburgh Steelers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Christian Gonzalez, CB

Best Draft Targets for the Steelers with the 17th pick:

• Wide Receiver: Although it’s not a glaring need, adding another weapon for Kenny Pickett has to be an option for Pittsburgh. The Steelers have a track record of drafting and developing undersized receivers with good-but-not-great athletic traits, and Jordan Addison fits that mold.
• Cornerback: It’s going to be difficult for Pittsburgh to pass over Joey Porter Jr. if he’s on the board given the perfect blend of need and nostalgia. It’s a good fit, good value, and fans will love it. That said, other cornerbacks such as Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez or Illinois’s Devon Witherspoon will be options as well.
• Nose Tackle: There probably isn’t a nose tackle worthy of this selection, but it’s a definite need in Pittsburgh and Baylor’s Siaki Ika or Michigan’s Mazi Smith could potentially draw interest. 

Who calls the shots in the Steelers’ draft room?

GM Omar Khan (first year) takes over after Kevin Colbert ran the team for 23 years. Khan likely has final say over the roster, though assistant GM Andy Weidl (first year) will have significant input, as will head coach Mike Tomlin. Khan has been with Pittsburgh since 2001, but his background is in the administrative side of the team. Weidl joins the team from the Eagles, where he was vice president of player personnel and has extensive experience in scouting. Sheldon White (first year) serves as the director of college scouting, and will likely also play a large role due to Khan’s inexperience in that area. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Steelers heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Receivers had a 10.5% drop rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield (ranked 30th)
• Dan Moore allowed a 5.9% pressure rate when lined up at left tackle, ranked 23rd out of 35 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at left tackle
• Chuks Okorafor allowed a 6.2% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 27th out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle.
• Ranked 23rd in pressure rate generated (31.4%)
• Ranked 31st in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (8.2)

18. Detroit Lions, Draft Pick Prediction: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Joey Porter Jr., CB

Best Draft Targets for the Lions with the 18th pick:

• Quarterback: If Detroit can’t trade up for Stroud or Young, they may decide to gamble on Anthony Richardson or Will Levis with their second selection, either with this pick or in a trade up. The ability to sit a developmental prospect behind Goff makes Detroit better equipped to handle a raw quarterback prospect than most of the other quarterback-needy teams. 
• Cornerback: If the Lions don’t land a cornerback with their first selection, expect them to target one here. This class is loaded with cornerbacks who could land in the back half of the first round such as Maryland’s Deonte Banks, South Carolina’s Cam Smith, or Penn State’s Joey Porter Jr.

See sixth pick for more on the Lions’ draft plans.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Bryan Bresee, DL

Best Draft Targets for the Buccaneers with the 19th pick:

• Defensive Line: The Bucs primarily rely on three-man fronts, which would make a prospect like Clemson’s Bryan Bresee appealing, as someone who could potentially replace free agent William Gholston.
• Edge: 2021 first-round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has continued to develop, but there’s no young depth around him. Georgia’s Nolan Smith, Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness, and LSU’s BJ Ojulari are possible targets in this range. 
• Secondary: The only meaningful defensive backs under contract are Carlton Davis and Antoine Winfield Jr. Cornerbacks Deonte Banks of Maryland and Cam Smith of South Carolina stand out as possible targets.  

Who calls the shots in the Buccaneers’ Draft Room?

GM Jason Licht (10th year) has final say over the roster. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Buccaneers heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Ranked 24th in pressure rate generated (31.3%)

20. Seattle Seahawks, Draft Pick Prediction: O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Jordan Addison, WR

Best Draft Targets for the Seahawks with the 20th pick:

• Offensive Guard: The release of Gabe Jackson was not a shock, but does leave Seattle without an obvious solution at left guard. O’Cyrus Torrence, Peter Skoronski and Darnell Wright are all potential options to fill an interior offensive line role in the first round.
• Wide Receiver: Seattle still has a strong duo in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but 2021 second-round pick D’Wayne Eskridge has not panned out and the depth is lacking. Jordan Addison, Jalin Hyatt and Josh Downs all have experience in the slot, which could allow for an easy transition into that role in Seattle’s offense. 

See fifth pick for more on the Seahawks’ draft plans. 

21. Los Angeles Chargers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Darnell Wright, OL, Tennessee

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Wright

Best Draft Targets for the Chargers with the 21st pick:

• Offensive Line: The Chargers have been slowly rebuilding the offensive line and could invest a high pick in the position again. Unfortunately, the top of this class is light at the position. There may be better value on Day 2, unless the Chargers want to reach for someone like Tennessee’s Darnell Wright or Ohio State’s Dawand Jones. Wright’s potential versatility between guard and tackle could be especially appealing.
• Wide Receiver: When healthy, the Chargers have a strong receiving corps. However, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen combined to miss 11 games last year. TCU’s Quenton Johnston would be an ideal fit if the Chargers want to add another weapon on the outside, while North Carolina’s Josh Downs or Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt could be an option if Los Angeles values their experience in the slot.  

Who calls the shots in the Chargers’ draft room?

GM Tom Telesco (10th year) has final say over personnel decisions.

Key Stats & Notes for the Chargers heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 26.7% of dropbacks (ranked 30th)
• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 28% of carries (ranked 28th)
• Jamaree Salyer allowed a 6.7% pressure rate when lined up at left tackle, ranked 31st out of 35 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at left tackle
• Allowed three or more yards before contact to running backs on 31% of carries (ranked 31st)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 18.8% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 17th)

22. Baltimore Ravens, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Murphy

Best Draft Targets for the Ravens with the 22nd pick:

• Edge: The league’s 28th-ranked pass-rush could use some help, especially with veterans Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Houston hitting the free agent market. This edge class is top heavy, but if someone like Myles Murphy or Nolan Smith were to fall, Baltimore could pounce.
• Defensive Back: Chuck Clark (traded to Jets) is a significant loss. Although Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams remain, when all three were active, they were on the field at the same time for an average of 35.8 snaps per game. Baltimore could address this need with Alabama’s Brian Branch, Texas A&M’s Antonio Johnson or Illinois’s Sydney Brown.
• Wide Receiver: Baltimore just can’t quite get it right when it comes to drafting and developing receivers around Lamar Jackson, but they have to give it another shot. Someone who can stretch the field from the slot and the outside would be an ideal fit, making Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Josh Downs, and Jalin Hyatt strong options. 

Who calls the shots in the Ravens’ draft room?

GM Eric DeCosta (fifth year as GM, 26th year in organization) controls roster construction and has maintained a similar approach to his former boss Ozzie Newsome.

Key Stats & Notes for the Ravens heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 28% of carries (ranked 27th)
• Ranked 28th in pressure rate generated (30.0%)
• Ranked 31st in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (56.3%)

23. Minnesota Vikings, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Quentin Johnston, WR

Best Draft Targets for the Vikings with the 23rd pick:

• Wide Receiver: As Adam Thielen’s production slowly fades, this is becoming a more pressing need in Minnesota. The Vikings like to rotate their receivers, so adding someone with experience in the slot and the outside 一 North Carolina’s Josh Downs or Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba 一 would make sense. If they want more size, TCU’s Quentin Johnson could be an option.
• Defensive Back: GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah values the secondary. He spent his first two picks on defensive backs last year, and the previous two seasons in Cleveland, helped the Browns land Greg Newsome and Grant Delpit with top-50 selections. Minnesota’s secondary was a mess last year and now three of its top four cornerbacks in terms of snaps played are set to hit free agency. Any of the top cornerbacks remaining on the board should be high on the Vikings’ radar. 
• Tight End: Minnesota has T.J. Hockenson under contract for one more year, but it’s unclear if he’s part of the team’s long-term plans. In a deep class of tight ends, we should consider the possibility that Minnesota drafts Hockenson’s replacement now, and allows him to learn for a year behind the veteran. Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer and Utah’s Dalton Kincaid stand out as good fits for a Hockenson-like role. 

Who calls the shots in the Vikings’ draft room?

GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah (second year) has final say over the roster. He has a background in analytics and spent the previous two seasons working under Andrew Berry in Cleveland. He was the director of football research & development under Trent Baalke in San Francisco prior to joining the Browns.

Key Stats & Notes for the Vikings heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 32% of carries (ranked 32nd)
• Ezra Cleveland ranked 63rd out of 69 guards in pressure rate allowed among players with at least 200 snaps in pass protection
• Ranked 30th in completions allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (59)
• Ranked 29th in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (8.1)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 19.1% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 26th)

24. Jacksonville Jaguars, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Previous3.0 Mock Draft selection: Mayer

Best Draft Targets for the Jaguars with the 24th pick:

• Tight End: Doug Pederson helped develop an offense around Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert in Philly and will have an opportunity to land a quality tight end with this selection. Michael Mayer’s well-rounded traits makes him a good fit.
• Offensive Line: Jacksonville needs to improve the protection for Trevor Lawrence and create a better run-blocking unit. Left tackle Cam Robinson and right guard Brandon Scherff are likely locked into starting roles, but upgrades are possible at the other positions. Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence, potentially the first interior lineman off the board, could slide into the starting job at left guard. 

Who Calls the Shots in Jaguars Draft Room?

GM Trent Baalke (third year) and head coach Doug Pederson (second year) supposedly share control of the roster. The Jaguars have not publicly stated who has the final say 一 though it’s likely Baalke, considering he participated in the hiring of Pederson.

Key Stats & Notes for the Jaguars heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 27% of carries (ranked 23rd)

25. New York Giants, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Quention Johnston, WR, TCU

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Jalin Hyatt, WR

Best Draft Targets for the Giants with the 25th pick:

• Wide Receiver: The Giants’ got the most out of a patchwork receiving corps last season, but significant upgrades are needed. Jalin Hyatt’s ability to stretch the field could add a new dimension to the offense. Quentin Johnston’s size on the outside could also be a valuable addition. 

Who calls the shots in the Giants’ draft room?

GM Joe Schoen (second year) has final say over roster decisions. He spent the previous five seasons as the assistant general manager to Brandon Beane in Buffalo.

Key Stats & Notes for the Giants heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 25.7% of dropbacks (ranked 28th)
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 19% of carries (ranked 31st)
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 16.8% of carries (ranked 32nd)

26. Dallas Cowboys, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Tyrique Stevenson, CB

Best Draft Targets for the Cowboys with the 26th pick:

• Tight End: The Cowboys could still re-sign Dalton Schultz, but this is a strong class of tight ends, which may influence Dallas’s approach. The balanced skill set of Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer would be an ideal fit. If he’s off the board, settling for a weapon in the pass game like Utah’s Dalton Kincaid could be a strong option.
• Wide Receiver: Dallas missed Amari Cooper this past season. Adding a versatile weapon might emerge as a priority with this selection. Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba stands out as an ideal fit given his ability to impact the passing game at all levels. 
• Cornerback: The addition of Stephon Gilmore makes this a less pressing immediate need. However, there’s a long list of cornerbacks with late-first-round potential such as Miami’s Tyrique Stevenson, South Carolina’s Cam Smith, Maryland’s Deonte Banks and Georgia’s Kelee Ringo. Given the talent at the position and Gilmore’s age (33 in September), cornerback is still a possibility. 

Who calls the shots in the Cowboys’ draft room?

Director of player personnel Stephen Jones effectively acts as the general manager with significant input from VP of player personnel Will McClay. Obviously, owner Jerry Jones has been known to step in and make decisions as well.

Key Stats & Notes for the Cowboys heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Generated three or more yards before contact for running backs on 21% of carries (ranked 27th)
• Receivers had a 9.9% drop rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield (ranked 28th)
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 13.5% of carries (ranked 26th)
• Ranked 24th in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (7.9)

27. Buffalo Bills, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Sydney Brown, S

Best Draft Targets for the Bills with the 27th pick:

• Jalen Carter: Carter is a top-10 talent in this class but he’s done everything wrong off the field this offseason and his draft stock is extremely volatile. He could potentially slide this far and Buffalo might be one of the teams willing to gamble on his upside. An established franchise like Buffalo doesn’t expect to own a high pick anytime soon, so the opportunity to draft someone with Carter’s elite skill is a rare opportunity. It also helps that Sean McDermott and his staff have been in place for a number of years, potentially enhancing their confidence in handling a player who needs off-field guidance.
• Offensive Line: Rodger Saffold held down the starting job at left guard in 2022, but he’s a free agent and will soon turn 35 years old. It’s also unclear how confident the team remains in right tackle Spencer Brown, who was often a liability in pass protection this past season. If they’re looking for an upgrade at right tackle, Ohio State’s Dawand Jones fits the profile Buffalo has targeted at that position. 

Who calls the shots in the Bills’ draft room?

GM Brandon Beane (seventh year) officially has final say over the roster, but head coach Sean McDermott’s opinion is believed to carry equal weight. McDermott and Beane were hired together in 2017 and also worked together for six seasons in Carolina.

Key Stats & Notes for the Bills heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Opposing quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 25.6% of dropbacks (ranked 27th)
• Spencer Brown allowed a 6.6% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 31st out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle.
• Led league in drop rate on targets of 10 or more yards downfield at 12.6%
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 14.0% of carries (ranked 29th)

28. Cincinnati Bengals, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Brian Branch, S, Alabama

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL

Best Draft Targets for the Bengals with the 28th pick:

• Secondary: The Bengals lost Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates to free agency. Last year’s first-round pick Dax Hill should take one of the starting jobs, despite an underwhelming rookie year. Nick Scott was added from the Rams in free agency, but is probably more of a backup plan than someone the Bengals are expecting to start and produce at a high level. Alabama’s Brian Branch would be an obvious target if still on the board.
• Offensive Line: Despite last offseason’s investments, the Bengals offensive line remained a liability. La’el Collins was disappointing at left tackle and the interior offensive line was inconsistent. Four-year starter O’Cyrus Torrence could be an option to step in immediately at left guard.
• Defensive Line: D.J. Reader is an anchor on the Bengals’ defensive line at nose tackle, but they could use an upgrade over B.J. Hill, who offers modest value as an interior pass-rusher. This need likely isn’t a high priority, but if the right player is on the board 一 maybe Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey or Clemson’s Bryan Bresee 一 it’s an area the Bengals could address.

Who calls the shots in the Bengals’ draft room?

Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin has final say over roster construction.

Key Stats & Notes for the Bengals heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Opposing quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 22.1% of dropbacks (ranked 18th)
• Ranked 25th in pressure rate generated on non-blitzes (27.8%)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 20.6% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 23rd)
• Allowed three or more yards before contact to running backs on 27% of carries (ranked 27th)

29. New Orleans Saints, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Deonte Banks, CB

Best Draft Targets for the Saints with the 29th pick:

• Defensive Tackle: David Onyemata, Kentavius Street and Shy Tuttle each played over 500 snaps last year and are all hitting free agency. If the Saints need an interior pass-rusher, Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey is their guy; if they want a nose tackle, Michigan’s Mazi Smith or Baylor’s Siaki Ika could make sense.
• Cornerback: Almost everyone in the Saints’ secondary underachieved last year, which likely means changes are coming. Marshon Lattimore will be back, but 2021 third-round pick Paulson Adebo has underwhelmed through two seasons. A number of cornerbacks are likely to come off the board near the back end of the first round, including Maryland’s Deonte Banks. South Carolina’s Cam Smith and Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes.

Who calls the shots in the Saints’ draft room?

GM Mickey Loomis likely has final say, though the power dynamic is unclear since the departure of Sean Payton (who previously had final say). Since Loomis does not have a background in scouting, assistant GM and director of college personnel Jeff Ireland likely has substantial input in the draft.

Key Stats & Notes for the Saints heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Ranked 26th in pressure rate generated (30.6%)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 15.8% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 31st)
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 22% of carries (ranked 23rd)

30. Philadelphia Eagles, Draft Pick Prediction: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Robinson

Best Draft Targets for the Eagles with the 30th pick:

• Running Back: Miles Sanders is set to hit free agency and Philly will likely opt to save money on a rookie running back rather than spend on a veteran. Perhaps that means a Day 2 selection, but Bijan Robinson will be tempting if he’s on the board. Eagles running backs ran between the tackles on 45% of carries last year, the league’s eighth-highest rate per Sports Info Solutions 一 a style that suits Robinson perfectly. 

See 10th pick for more on the Eagles’ draft plans. 

31. Kansas City Chiefs, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Harrison

Best Draft Targets for the Chiefs with the 31st pick:

• Offensive Line: Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie are both set to hit the free agent market. Since Kansas City does not have a ton of cap space, and has needs elsewhere to address, keeping both may be difficult. Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison, Ohio State’s Dawand Jones and Tennessee’s Darnell Wright all have the potential to still be on the board and could replace Wylie at right tackle.
• Tight End: Obviously the Chiefs don’t need to replace Travis Kelce yet. However, tight ends are typically slow to develop and Kelce turns 34 years old in October. This is a fantastic class of tight ends, so it may be a good opportunity for the Chiefs to add a young prospect to groom behind Kelce for a year or two. 
• Wide Receiver: The patchwork receiving corps worked in 2022, but JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman are both free agents. A revolving door at the position isn’t a great plan, so giving Patrick Mahomes another young weapon to develop would be a good use of his selection. North Carolina’s Josh Downs and Tennessee’s Jalin Hyatt both have skill sets that would fit the Chiefs’ offense. 

Who calls the shots in the Chiefs’ draft room?

GM Brett Veach (seventh year) officially has final say over the roster, but Andy Reid’s opinion carries significant weight. The two have worked together since Reid hired Veach as a coaching intern in 2004, and Veach followed Reid to Kansas City in 2013. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Chiefs heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Ranked 23rd in yards per attempt allowed when quarterback was not pressured (7.9)

Non-first-round top picks

36. Los Angeles Rams, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Matthew Bergeron, OT

Best Draft Targets for the Rams with the 36th pick:

• Pass-Rushers: Leonard Floyd, Bobby Wagner and Greg Gaines combined for 90 pressures last year, 42% of the Rams total. Attempting to replace some of that production will be a priority in the draft.
• Left Tackle: Joe Noteboom did not get the job done as Andrew Whitworth’s replacement last year. Fortunately, he’s still under contract, so the Rams don’t need to force a rookie into that role. However, it would be wise to add a young prospect to compete for the job. Syracuse’s Matthew Bergeron and Maryland’s Jaelyn Duncan and two possible Day 2 options. 

Who calls the shots in the Rams’ draft room?

GM Les Snead (12th year) has final say over personnel decisions.

Key Stats & Notes for the Rams heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Joe Noteboom allowed a 10.0% pressure rate when lined up at left tackle, ranked 35th out of 35 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at left tackle.
• Ranked 30th in pressure rate generated (27.7%)
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 21% of carries (ranked 27th)

42. Cleveland Browns, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE

Best Draft Targets for the Browns with the 42nd pick:

• Running Back: Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson are free agents, so depth is needed. Additionally, 27-year old Nick Chubb is under contract for only two more years. Adding a young ball carrier to help keep Chubb fresh during his final years in Cleveland should be on their radar on Day 2. 
• Pass Rusher: Jadeveon Clowney wore out his welcome and is unlikely to return. Although Myles Garrett can do damage on his own, Cleveland’s pass rush unit was significantly more dangerous with Clowney on the field, too. Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Notre Dame’s Isaiah Foskey, and Ohio State’s Zach Harrison are some possible Day 2 targets. 

Who calls the shots in the Browns’ draft room?

GM Andrew Berry (fourth  year) has final say, with input from chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta (eighth year) and head coach Kevin Stefanski (fourth year)

Key Stats & Notes for the Browns heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Committed NFL-worst 28 offensive holding penalties. 
• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 30% of carries (ranked 30th)
• Generated 35.4% pressure rate with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney on the field; 28.6% with one or both not on the field. 
• Ranked 23rd in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (47.3%)
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 22% of carries (ranked 24th)

51. Miami Dolphins, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: John Michael Schmitz, IOL

Best Draft Targets for the Dolphins with the 77th pick:

• Wide Receiver: Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are a great one-two punch at receiver, but the unit would be more complete with a bigger weapon in the mix. The 6’3” Cedric Tillman would provide some size, while also providing another weapon who can stretch the field.
• Offensive Line: The Dolphins could address any position on the offensive line, though the depth of this class may dictate a focus on the interior offensive line with this selection. Connor Williams’s experience at both guard and center allows Miami to be flexible in who they target. 

Who calls the shots in the Dolphins’ draft room?

GM Chris Grier (seventh year) has final say over personnel decisions but has accepted substantial input from past head coaches, which likely applies to Mike McDaniel (second year) as well.

Key Stats & Notes for the Dolphins heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Opposing quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 23.4% of dropbacks (ranked 21st)
• Brandon Shell allowed a 6.8% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 35th out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle.
• Liam Eichenberg ranked 60th out of 69 guards in pressure rate allowed among players with at least 200 snaps in pass protection.

67. Denver Broncos, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Blake Freeland, OT

Best Draft Targets for the Broncos with the 67th pick:

• Running Back: With Javonte Williams coming off a season-ending injury, adding some depth wouldn’t be a bad idea. Even if Williams returns to form, adding some speed to the backfield is a must. A well-rounded weapon like Devon Achane would be an ideal complement to Williams, who is a more traditional downhill runner. 
• Defensive Line: The Broncos’ run defense was a liability at times, and building a unit capable of more disruption should be an offseason priority. Texas’s Moro Ojomo, Bowling Green’s Karl Brooks, and Wisconsin’s Keeanu Benton are possible options in this range of the draft. 

Who calls the shots in the Broncos’ draft room?

GM George Paton (third year) has final say over the roster. Prior to joining Denver, he spent the majority of his career as Rick Spielman’s right-hand man in Minnesota and Miami, and appears to be taking a similar approach to building the Broncos as he and Spielman did with the Vikings.

Key Stats & Notes for the Broncos heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Russell Wilson had a boom-bust ratio of 1.01, ranked 37th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks (boom-bust ratio: plays with +1 EPA or higher compared to plays of -1 EPA or worse)
• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 25.2% of dropbacks (ranked 26th)
• Ranked 25th in pressure rate generated (31.3%)
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 20% of carries (ranked 29th)

99. San Francisco 49ers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Tyler Steen, OT, Alabama

Previous 3.0 Mock Draft selection: Andrei Ioasivas, WR

Best Draft Targets for the 49ers with the 99th pick:

• Offensive Tackle: They can’t expect to replace Mike McGinchey with this selection, but they can add a young prospect to compete for a job. If they’re looking for immediate production, a four-year starter from the SEC like Tyler Steen could be a good fit. 
• Defensive Line: San Francisco has seven defensive linemen hitting free agency this offseason, so replenishing the depth at the position will be an offseason priority.
• Wide Receiver: It’s impossible to predict a pick this late in the draft, but there’s always wide receiver depth in his range and it’s a need for the 49ers. A weapon with slot/outside versatility, such as Princeton’s Andrei Iosivas, would be an ideal target. 

Who calls the shots in the 49ers’ draft room?

GM John Lynch (seventh year) has final say over personnel decisions.

Key Stats & Notes for the 49ers heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 27% of carries (ranked 24th)
• Ranked 31st in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (51.9%)

3.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Mar 13)

2.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Mar 10)

1.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Feb 27)