Final 2023 NFL Mock Draft From Ryan McCrystal

Ryan McCrystal, the #5 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his 2023 NFL Mock Draft — making predictions for every team and every pick in the first round. Teams without a first-round pick are also included. 

The 2023 NFL Draft is finally here.  

In this NFL mock draft, I’m projecting what I think each team will do based on a combination of draft needs, available talent, GM tendencies, and scheme fits. 

To simplify the process, no trades are projected in this version, which may lead to some players (especially quarterbacks) coming off the board slightly lower in this mock draft than they will on draft day.

Reminder: there are 31 first-round picks this season with the forfeiture of the Miami Dolphins’ first-round pick.

All stats are from TruMedia/PFF unless otherwise noted.

2023 NFL Mock Draft

Earlier 2023 NFL mock drafts from Ryan McCrystal:

• NFL Mock Draft 7.0 (Apr 17)
• NFL Mock Draft 6.0 (Apr 10)
• NFL Mock Draft 5.0 (Apr 3)
• NFL Mock Draft 4.0 (Mar 20)
• NFL Mock Draft 3.0 (Mar 13)
• NFL Mock Draft 2.0 (Mar 10)
• NFL Mock Draft 1.0 (Feb 27)

1. Carolina Panthers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Young

Best Draft Targets for the Panthers with the first pick:

• Bryce Young: Carolina probably did not know who the pick was going to be when it traded up, but it’s clear Young separated himself throughout the process. 

Who calls the shots in the Panthers’ draft room?

GM Scott Fitterer (third year) will have final say over the Panthers roster for the first time in his tenure, taking that role from Matt Rhule. Despite the new power structure, head coach Frank Reich is expected to have significant input. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Panthers Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Notable quarterbacks coached by Frank Reich: Philip Rivers (6-foot-5), Carson Wentz (6-foot-5), Matt Ryan (6-foot-4), Peyton Manning (6-foot-5)
• Fitterer was Seahawks’ director of college scouting when they drafted Russell Wilson (5-foot-11) and a scout when they drafted Seneca Wallace (5-foot-11)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 20.8% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 21st)

2. Houston Texans, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE

Best Draft Targets for the Texans with the second pick:

• Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud: As discussed on our news and rumors page, the Texans are likely hoping Carolina shocks us and lets Yung fall, but may be less interested in Stroud, who shares an agent with Deshaun Watson. 
• Will Anderson Jr. or Tyree Wilson: If Carolina goes with Young, perhaps Houston kicks the quarterback decision down the road and takes the best defensive player with this selection. Houston owns Cleveland’s first-round pick in 2024, so GM Nick Caserio can feel confident in the team’s ability to acquire a quarterback next year, either with its own first-round pick or a trade up. Wilson is probably the better fit for DeMeco Ryan’s defense.   

Who calls the shots in the Texans’ draft room?

GM Nick Caserio (third year) has final say over the roster. In previous years, executive VP Jack Easterby (third year) was heavily involved in all aspects of the organization, but Easterby has since been fired, potentially giving more control to Caserio. With DeMeco Ryans in his first year as a head coach, Caserio likely has firm control over the roster. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Texans Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 25.9% of dropbacks (ranked 29th)
• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 29% of carries (ranked 29th)
• Ranked 26th in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (49.0%)
• Ranked 27th in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (8.0)
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 15.7% of carries (ranked 31st)

3. Arizona Cardinals, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Johnson

Best Draft Targets for the Cardinals with the third pick:

• Paris Johnson Jr.: Arizona has been busy visiting with many of the top offensive tackles in this draft class. They may not take one with the third pick, but they appear to be preparing for a trade down and will consider Johnson, Broderick Jones, Peter Skoronski and Darnell Wright.
• Christian Gonzalez: New GM Monti Ossenfort spent most of his career in New England. Assuming he shares the same philosophy as his former bosses, he’s likely to favor cornerbacks over pass-rushers. Christian Gonzalez is the consensus top corner, but Devon Witherspoon and Joey Porter Jr. will be on their radar also.
• Trade Down: If Stroud and Young are not the first two selections, the value of this pick skyrockets as someone will want to jump Indy for a quarterback. Even if they’re gone, it’s possible someone will want to trade up for Anthony Richardson.
• Will Anderson Jr. or Tyree Wilson: If Ossenfort strays from the secondary-over-pass-rush trend, Anderson and Wilson become obvious targets. Jonathan Gannon and Nick Rallis will likely employ a lot of four-man fronts, and both players fit that scheme well.
• Jalen Carter: With a new GM and coaching staff, Arizona is not among the teams well suited to bring in a player with off-field concerns. That said, because it’s a new regime there is a lot we don’t know about their decision-making process, so let’s not rule out the possibility, especially if they trade down first.

Who calls the shots in the Cardinals’ draft room?

First-year GM Monti Ossenfort likely has final say over the Cardinals roster, though the team has not officially confirmed this. Ossenfort is a former director of college scouting (Patriots) and director of player personnel (Titans). His assistant GM is former Lions director of college scouting Dave Sears.  

Key Stats & Notes for the Cardinals Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 23.8% of dropbacks (ranked 23rd)
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 14.1% of carries (ranked 30th)
• Ranked 20th in pressure rate generated (32.1%)

4. Indianapolis Colts, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Will Levis, QB, Kentucky

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: C.J. Stroud, QB

Best Draft Targets for the Colts with the fourth pick:

• Will Levis or C.J. Stroud: There’s a lot of talk about the Colts loving Levis because of his S2 score (especially in comparison to Stroud) and because the Manning family is on board with him. The S2 factor could be important to Chris Ballard, while the Manning seal of approval means something to Jim Irsay. That said, everything that’s happened on the field over the last two years points to Stroud being a substantially better prospect. 
• Will Anderson Jr. or Tyree Wilson: If two quarterbacks come off the board in the top three picks, Indy might not get a shot at their guy. But it would mean Anderson and/or Wilson are on the board. 
• Trade Down: If they do not love their quarterback options, the best backup plan is to trade down and stock up on 2024 picks, which will make it easier to pull off a similar trade next year for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. 
• Christian Gonzalez: The Colts traded Stephon Gilmore this offseason, and there’s now a severe lack of experience at cornerback. Kenny Moore also struggled last year and is not an ideal fit in Gus Bradley’s defensive scheme 一 Ballard has stated a desire to keep Moore, but has also acknowledged they have received trade inquiries. Christian Gonzalez has the size and length Bradley loves for his scheme. If Indy does not want a quarterback, perhaps Ballard trades down and considers Gonzalez later. 

Who Calls the Shots in Colts’ Draft Room?

GM Chris Ballard (seventh year) has final say over roster construction.

Key Stats & Notes for the Colts Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 23.5% of dropbacks (ranked 22nd)
• Ranked 29th in pressure rate generated (29.8%)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 18.6% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 28th)

5. Seattle Seahawks, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Tyree Wilson, EDGE

Best Draft Targets for the Seahawks with the fifth pick:

• Jalen Carter: Carter feels like the safest bet for Seattle because they could take him at five, or trade down a few slots at take him. For example, let’s say Indy takes Levis, leaving Stroud on the board — the Raiders might want to move up for Stroud, and Seattle could take Carter a few slots later. 
• Edge Rusher: Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor are both free agents after the 2023 season. Adding Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson could fill a need and elevate this unit to a much higher level. Since Seattle relies on three-man fronts, Anderson looks like the better fit. 
• Christian Gonzalez: This doesn’t appear to be a position Seattle wants to address early in the draft, but it’s hard to overlook how Gonzalez’s length and athleticism perfectly fit the mold of a Seahawks cornerback. If they trade down, Gonzalez could enter the conversation.
• Quarterback: Seattle’s extremely public tour of the quarterback pro days reeks of a smoke screen. But we can’t rule out the possibility they fell in love with one of those prospects along the way.

Who calls the shots in Seahawks’ draft room?

Head coach Pete Carroll (14th year) has final say over personnel decisions but works in tandem with GM John Schneider (14th year).

Key Stats & Notes for the Seahawks Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Gabe Jackson ranked 64th out of 69 guards in pressure rate allowed among players with at least 200 snaps in pass protection.
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 11.8% of carries (ranked 19th)
• Ranked 26th in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (7.9)

6. Detroit Lions, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Christian Gonzalez, CB

Best Draft Targets for the Lions with the sixth pick:

• Edge: Adding another young, athletic edge rusher to pair with Aidan Hutchinson could have a ripple effect on the defense, improving the performance of every other unit as well. Tyree Wilson and Will Anderson will be in the conversation at six, while Lukas Van Ness could enter the picture if they trade back.
• Cornerback: What does defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn look for in a cornerback? “I think the first thing is personality… How do they come in? How confident are they? I can tell right off the top if this is a guy who’s going to get after it because of just the way he operates.” Christian Gonzalez and Devon Witherspoon could each potentially fit that description. 
• Quarterback: We can’t rule this out because they’re not going to stick with Jared Goff forever. That said, reaching for Anthony Richardson or Will Levis feels out of character for Brad Holmes, who has played it safe through his first few drafts. If Stroud or Young were available, however, that’s a different story.

Who calls the shots in Lions’ draft room?

GM Brad Holmes (third year) has final say over personnel decisions. This will be his first year working without his director of college scouting, Dave Sears, who took the assistant GM job in Arizona. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Lions Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Receivers had a 10.8% drop rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield (ranked 31st)
• Allowed NFL-worst 75 completions at 15 or more yards downfield
• Ranked 30th in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (8.2)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 20.7% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 22nd)

7. Las Vegas Raiders, Top Draft Pick Prediction: C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Devon Witherspoon, CB

Best Draft Targets for the Raiders with the seventh pick:

• Quarterback: With Jimmy Garoppolo in place, the Raiders could draft Will Levis or Anthony Richardson and let them sit for a year or two. But since the first year of this regime was a significant disappointment, drafting a quarterback to sit and learn is a risk. They likely feel the pressure to turn the ship around more quickly. If Stroud becomes available, he is definitely an option. Those who come from the Patriots coaching/front office tree tend to like tall, accurate pocket passers, a description which fits Stroud better than any other prospect in this class.   
• Cornerback: Anyone who comes from the Patriots front office tree tends to value cornerbacks over the pass rush. This applies to Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels. Devon Witherspoon lacks ideal length, but that’s also a trait that tends to matter less to the Patriots front office tree. Christian Gonzalez could also be a fit. 

Who calls the shots in Raiders’ draft room?

GM Dave Ziegler (second year, spent previous nine seasons in Patriots front office) has final say over the roster, though head coach Josh McDaniels (second year) likely has significant input. McDaniels and Ziegler were college teammates at John Carroll and it was McDaniels who helped Ziegler get his first NFL job with the Broncos when McDaniels was their head coach.

Key Stats & Notes for the Raiders Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.4% of dropbacks (ranked 24th)
• Alex Bars and Dylan Parham ranked 65th and 68th, respectively, in pressure rate allowed among 69 guards with at least 200 snaps in pass protection. 
• Ranked 27th in pressure rate generated (30.0%)

8. Atlanta Falcons, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Van Ness

Best Draft Targets for the Falcons with the eighth pick:

• Lukas Van Ness: The Falcons front office came from New Orleans, where they drafted Payton Turner, Marcus Davenport and Cameron Jordan 一 all players who were coached by new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. Van Ness and Tyree Wilson perfectly fit that same physical profile.
• Cornerback: While GM Terry Fontenot worked in the Saints front office, few teams aggressively added talent to the secondary via the draft more than the Saints. Fontenot has not invested heavily in the position since coming to Atlanta, but the unit has underperformed 一 even A.J. Terrell took a step back last year 一 and it could be time for some changes. Devon Witherspoon and Christian Gonzalez could be the targets with this selection. 
• Quarterback: Desmond Ridder was good enough in his four games as a rookie to get another look, but the Falcons’ third-round investment in him should not be enough to make us assume the team won’t consider the quarterbacks in this class. 
• Bijan Robinson: Fontenot has a long history of ignoring running backs early in the draft — and it paid off last year with Tyler Allgeier producing as a fifth-rounder. Perhaps they take the best-available approach and grab Robinson, but it would be an odd selection given where they’re at in the rebuilding process.

Who calls the shots in the Falcons’ draft room?

GM Terry Fontenot (second year) has the final say over roster construction.

Key Stats & Notes for the Falcons Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• In 10 years as a director of scouting, assistant GM and GM, Fontenot’s teams have drafted one running back inside the top 150 picks (Alvin Kamara, 67th overall)
• Ranked 31st in pressure rate generated (25.8%)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 13.7% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 32nd)
• Ranked 26th in completions allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (55)
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 18% of carries (ranked 32nd)

9. Chicago Bears, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Jones

Best Draft Targets for the Bears with the ninth pick:

• Offensive Line: Paris Johnson Jr. and Broderick Jones appear to be natural fits for Chicago based on their length and athleticism. Peter Skoronski could be in the conversation, but Chicago likely views him as a guard, which probably diminishes his value in their eyes.
• Jalen Carter: The Bears still have holes all over the place, so taking the best-available approach and gambling on Carter’s upside is a possibility. Poles comes from Kansas City, where they’ve taken risks on character concerns before, so he may be more comfortable with this gamble than most.

Who calls the shots in the Bears’ draft room?

GM Ryan Poles (second year) has final say over roster construction. Poles was previously with the Chiefs since 2009, most recently working under GM Brett Veach as director of player personnel.

Key Stats & Notes for the Bears Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Braxton Jones allowed a 6.3% pressure rate when lined up at left tackle, ranked 29th out of 35 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at left tackle.
• Ranked 32nd in pressure rate generated (24.2%)
• Ranked 32nd in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (8.5)
• Ranked 28th in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (51.0%)
• Allowed three or more yards before contact to running backs on 28% of carries (ranked 29th)

10. Philadelphia Eagles, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Jalen Carter, DT

Best Draft Targets for the Eagles with the 10th pick:

• Trade Up: It’s a near certainty that Howie Roseman is making calls to trade up for one of the top-tier prospects. He loves trading up to land one of the blue chip prospects on their board, as he did last year with Jordan Davis and the year prior with DeVonta Wyatt. Will Anderson Jr. and Paris Johnson Jr. both could be targets depending on how the board falls.
• Nolan Smith: Smith fits into the Haason Reddick role, and we know Roseman likes to address needs before the appear. Reddick has two years remaining on his deal, but the Eagles don’t plan to be in the top 10 again any time soon, so this is an opportunity to land a premier player at the position.
• Jalen Carter: The Eagles’ veteran defensive leadership could make them more confident than most in adding a player with off-field concerns. Howie Roseman also has a history of stockpiling depth at the position, so it would also fit in terms of his approach to team building. Bryan Bresee could also be an option at defensive tackle. 
• Offensive Line: 33-year-old Lane Johnson is still playing at a high level, but few teams have dealt with offensive line injuries more than Philadelphia in recent years. Paris Johnson or Broderick Jones could be long-term replacements for Johnson. Peter Skoronski could be an immediate starter at right guard. 

Who calls the shots in the Eagles’ draft room?

GM Howie Roseman (12th year) has final say over the roster. Roseman has held the title of general manager and/or executive vice president of football operations since 2010, however, he did not control the roster during Andy Reid’s or Chip Kelly’s tenures. Roseman gained full control of personnel decisions in 2016.

Key Stats & Notes for the Eagles Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 26.8% of dropbacks (ranked 31st)
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 12.6% of carries (ranked 23rd)
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 23% of carries (ranked 18th)

11. Tennessee Titans, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Peter Skoronski, OL

Best Draft Targets for the Titans with the 11th pick:

• Quarterback: The Ohio State connection (Mike Vrabel) means few teams will have as much inside info on C.J. Stroud. If they like what they hear, the will try to trade up. If they can’t get Stroud, maybe Tennessee just stays put and snags whoever falls into their lap. Anthony Richardson would certainly benefit from sitting for year behind Ryan Tannehill. Tennessee’s run-heavy offense would also easy Richardson’s transition.  
• Offensive Line: No one’s job is safe on Tennessee’s offensive line, so every prospect is a candidate. Paris Johnson Jr. and Broderick Jones are potential left tackles. Peter Skoronski or Darnell Wright could play right tackle or guard. 
• Wide Receiver: This is a definite need, but none of the top prospects appear to be ideal fits. Tennessee’s offense is best suited for receivers who produce after the catch, and new GM Ran Carthon comes from San Francisco where they exclusively drafted receivers who fit that mold. That said, if changes are coming to the Tennessee offense, they could target Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Who calls the shots in the Titans’ draft room?

The Titans have refused to address this question since hiring Ran Carthon this offseason. Former GM Jon Robinson had final say, but it was Robinson who hired Mike Vrabel, making that distinction easier. Vrabel’s tenure may now give him more sway than Carthon, who was previously the 49ers’ director of player personnel. Director of college scouting Jon Salge (seventh year) will likely be heavily involved as well. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Titans Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Ryan Tannehill generated an EPA of -1 or worse on 13.6% of dropbacks without pressure (ranked 40th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks)
• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 28.4% of dropbacks (ranked 32nd)
• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 28% of carries (ranked 27th)
• Ranked 31st in completions allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (65)

12. Houston Texans, Draft Pick Prediction: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Smith-Njigba

Best Draft Targets for the Texans with the 12th pick:

• Wide Receiver: Whether Houston adds a rookie quarterback this year or next, it’s coming. And improving this pitiful receiving corps would be a smart move. Jaxon Smith-Njigba appears to have solidified himself as the top weapon on the board, though USC’s Jordan Addison could be in the mix as well. 
• Anthony Richardson or Will Levis: If Houston passes on a quarterback with the second pick, it could have the option to draft one here (or in a trade up). Both quarterbacks are flawed, but Houston still has Davis Mills, who could start in 2022 while the rookie learns from the bench. I guess I also have to mention Hendon Hooker, as there have been rumors if potential interest. It’s tough to imagine anyone spending a first-round pick on a 25-year-old quarterback coming off a serious injury and playing in a scheme far removed from what his NFL playbook will look like — but Houston is stubborn and will draft their board regardless of outside opinions. 
• Defensive Line: New head coach Demeco Ryans relied on a deep defensive line rotation in San Francisco. Due to his size, Calijah Kancey won’t be a fit in every scheme, but Ryans averaged 60 plays per game with four defensive linemen last year. That’s the type of scheme that can use Kancey as an interior pass-rusher. 
• Edge: Houston has holes everywhere, but given the available talent in this class, we should assume they’ll be considering a pass rusher with this selection. Myles Murphy, Lukas Van Ness, and Nolan Smith are all options who could be on the board. 

See second pick for more on the Texans’ draft plans. 

13. Green Bay Packers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Myles Murphy, EDGE

Best Draft Targets for the Packers with the 13th pick:

• Broderick Jones: Gutekunst loves drafting young prospects with plenty of room for growth. Jones is just 21 and could be groomed as David Bakhtiari’s replacement at left tackle. It obviously doesn’t hurt that Jones played at Georgia, a program Gutekunst respects.
• Bryan Bresee: This selection wouldn’t be purely about need, but fits a trend for the Packers. Bresee is an elite talent who’s still raw in his technique. That fits the mold of a common Packers draft pick, as they are one of the organizations comfortable spending a first-round pick on a high-upside prospect in need of development (take Rashaan Gary and Jordan Love as examples).
• Myles Murphy: Similar to Bresee, Murphy is a talented but raw prospect the Packers could groom for the future. Edge rusher is not a glaring need, but adding depth with Gary coming off an injury makes sense.
• Safety: Maybe Green Bay already addressed this need by signing Tarvarius Moore, but that feels like more of a backup plan than the primary option for replacing Adrian Amos. Alabama’s Brian Branch is probably one of the few rookies capable of stepping into Amos’s shoes immediately.
• Pass-Catcher: Although GM Brian Gutekunst has under-invested in the wide receiver position, he should be in position to land one of the top prospects in this year’s class. Someone with experience in the slot 一 Jordan Addison or Jaxon Smith-Njigba一 would be the ideal complement to Christian Watson, who is better suited for a role on the outside. Dalton Kincaid could also fit as a weapon at tight end, and would likely quickly emerge as a favorite weapon of Jordan Love.

Who calls the shots in the Packers’ draft room?

GM Brian Gutekunst (fifth year) has final say over the roster, but Gutekunst, director of football operations Russ Ball, and head coach Matt LaFleur all report directly to president/CEO Mark Murphy. This structure theoretically gives more personnel influence to Ball and LaFleur than if they reported directly to the GM, as most front offices are organized.

Key Stats & Notes for the Packers Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Yosh Nijman allowed a 7.7% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 34th out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle
• Receivers had a 10.3% drop rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield (ranked 29th)
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 13.6% of carries (ranked 28th)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 18.4% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 29th)
• Ranked 32nd in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (57.6%)

14. New England Patriots, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Joey Porter Jr., CB

Best Draft Targets for the Patriots with the 14th pick:

• Offensive Line: The Patriots offensive line underperformed last year. Riley Reiff was signed to play right tackle, but his peak is in the rearview mirror. Peter Skoronski and Broderick Jones would both be good fits at right tackles with the skill set to potentially shift to guard. 
• Cornerback: The Patriots relied on a patchwork secondary last year, and could use a true lockdown corner to bolster the unit. Belichick has always leaned on man coverage at a high rate, and Illinois’s Devon Witherspoon has plenty of experience in that type of system under former Belichick assistant Bret Bielema. Joey Porter Jr.’s physical play could also make him an attractive option.
• Myles Murphy: This probably isn’t a position New England is specifically targeting, but Murphy looks like an ideal fit. Matt Judon is getting older and will be a free agent after 2024. Murphy fits nicely into the Judon role and would be a great complement to the smaller, more athletic Josh Uche. Lukas Van Ness is a possibility for similar reasons. 
• Wide Receiver: The Patriots need to determine if Mac Jones is deserving of an extension and to do so they must give him some weapons. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison are probably the most polished weapons in this class and are capable of producing immediately. 
• Safety: There isn’t a perfect Devin McCourty replacement available, but Alabama’s Brian Branch is a potential target for Belichick in the first round.

Who calls the shots in the Patriots’ draft room?

Head coach Bill Belichick (23rd year) has final say over personnel decisions. Matt Groh was promoted to director of player personnel last offseason after one season as the Patriots’ director of college scouting. Aside from Belichick, this remains a relatively inexperienced front office due to the recent losses of Nick Casserio (Texans) and Dave Ziegler (Raiders). 

Key Stats & Notes for the Patriots Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Mac Jones had a boom-bust ratio of 1.0, ranked 38th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks (boom-bust ratio: plays with +1 EPA or higher compared to plays of -1 EPA or worse)
• Trent Brown allowed a 6.3% pressure rate when lined up at left tackle, ranked 28th out of 35 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at left tackle
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 19% of carries (ranked 30th)

15. New York Jets, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Nolan Smith, EDGE

Best Draft Targets for the Jets with the 15th pick:

• Offensive Line: Nothing has gone right for Mekhi Becton since his promising rookie year in 2020. At this point, the Jets probably can’t count on him due to a combination of injuries and concerns about his work ethic. Georgia’s Broderick Jones and Ohio State’s Paris Johnson are the most likely targets at left tackle given their length. If simply adding the best available lineman is the goal, Darnell Wright could be a fit, though he’s more likely viewed as a right tackle or guard. 
• Nolan Smith: The Jets are probably comfortable with their pass-rush unit right now, but Carl Lawson is in the final year of his deal. If one of the top tier edge rushers slides, the Jets might take advantage of the opportunity to fill this need a year early. 
• Wide Receiver: This is unlikely to be the primary goal of this selection, but if the top offensive linemen are off the board, building an elite receiving corps would be appealing. It’s also worth noting Corey Davis is entering the final year of his contract, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be a natural fit in his role.

Who calls the shots in the Jets’ draft room?

GM Joe Douglas (fifth year) has final say over personnel decisions.

Key Stats & Notes for the Jets Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Zach Wilson had the second-worst completion percentage above expectation (-6.1%) per NextGenStats
• Wilson had a 56.8% catchable pass rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield, per Sports Info Solutions (only quarterback under 60%)
• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 32% of carries (ranked 31st)
• Max Mitchell allowed a 6.3% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 30th out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle

16. Washington Commanders, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Darnell Wright, OL

Best Draft Targets for the Commanders with the 16th pick:

• Defensive Back: If Gonzalez Witherspoon unexpectedly fall, Washington will jump at the chance to add an upgrade at cornerback. If they don’t, this is still an area of need and Emmanuel Forbes and Brian Branch will likely be in the conversation. Branch is typically listed as a safety, but primarily plays in the slot and fits nicely in Washington’s scheme. 
• Offensive Line: The offensive line was a mess last year, making it an obvious area to target with this selection. Although most of last year’s unit remains under contract, expect Washington to add a rookie at some point and shuffle guys around in training camp. This selection is likely the floor for the top tier of offensive line prospects. Darnell Wright is probably the safest bet at the position based on fit and potential availability. 
• Quarterback: The Commanders will likely give Sam Howell the 2023 season to prove himself, but they’d be foolish to not take a close look at this year’s quarterback class. If they fall in love with someone (Anthony Richardson?), perhaps they could snag another quarterback. 

Who calls the shots in the Commanders’ draft room?

Head coach Ron Rivera (fourth year) has final say with input from GM Martin Mayhew (fourth year)

Key Stats & Notes for the Commanders Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Carson Wentz had a 61.6% catchable pass rate on throws 10 or more yards downfield (ranked 39th out of 41) per Sports Info Solutions
• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.6% of dropbacks (ranked 25th)
• Charles Leno allowed a 5.4% pressure rate when lined up at left tackle, ranked 21st out of 35 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at left tackle
• Cornelius Lucas allowed an 8.7% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 35th out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle.
• Sam Cosmi allowed a 5.5% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 23rd out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle
• Generated three or more yards before contact for running backs on 19% of carries (ranked 30th)

17. Pittsburgh Steelers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Bryan Bresee, DL

Best Draft Targets for the Steelers with the 17th pick:

• Cornerback: It’s going to be difficult for Pittsburgh to pass over Joey Porter Jr. if he’s on the board given the perfect blend of need and nostalgia. It’s a good fit, good value, and fans will love it. That said, Mike Tomlin also knows Deonte Banks, who was a teammate of his son at Maryland. If Christian Gonzalez or Devon Witherspoon fall, they will also be in consideration. 
• Bryan Bresee: The Steelers have a history of trying to fill holes before they develop. Bryan Bresee could be groomed as a replacement for Cameron Heyward. 
• Wide Receiver: Although it’s not a glaring need, adding another weapon for Kenny Pickett has to be an option for Pittsburgh. The Steelers have a track record of drafting and developing undersized receivers with good-but-not-great athletic traits, and Jordan Addison fits that mold. Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be an obvious target if he’s available, especially given Tomlin’s respect for Ohio State prospect. 
• Nose Tackle: There probably isn’t a nose tackle worthy of this selection, but it’s a definite need in Pittsburgh. It’s worth mentioning Mazi Smith as a possible target, though he likely slides to Day 2.

Who calls the shots in the Steelers’ draft room?

GM Omar Khan (first year) takes over after Kevin Colbert ran the team for 23 years. Khan likely has final say over the roster, though assistant GM Andy Weidl (first year) will have significant input, as will head coach Mike Tomlin. Khan has been with Pittsburgh since 2001, but his background is in the administrative side of the team. Weidl joins the team from the Eagles, where he was vice president of player personnel and has extensive experience in scouting. Sheldon White (first year) serves as the director of college scouting, and will likely also play a large role due to Khan’s inexperience in that area. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Steelers Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Receivers had a 10.5% drop rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield (ranked 30th)
• Dan Moore allowed a 5.9% pressure rate when lined up at left tackle, ranked 23rd out of 35 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at left tackle
• Chuks Okorafor allowed a 6.2% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 27th out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle.
• Ranked 23rd in pressure rate generated (31.4%)
• Ranked 31st in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (8.2)

18. Detroit Lions, Draft Pick Prediction: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Michael Mayer, TE

Best Draft Targets for the Lions with the 18th pick:

• Cornerback: If the Lions don’t land a cornerback with their first selection, expect them to target one here. Maryland’s Deonte Banks appears to have the aggressive, physical style to fit well in Detroit’s defense. It’s also possible one of the top corners falls, and Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez would be an easy choice if they are on the board. Joey Porter Jr. is a candidate as well.
• Tight End: Detroit needs an upgrade at tight end after trading T.J. Hockenson last season. Although Dalton Kincaid would add an appealing dimension to the pass game, Michael Mayer is a significantly more effective blocker. This regime has a noticeable preference for physical players, likely putting Mayer atop their board at tight end. 
• Calijah Kancey: GM Brad Holmes played a key role in the Rams drafting Aaron Donald, so he’s likely among the GMs who will be okay with Kancey’s lack of size. Holmes drafted Levi Onwuzurike to play this role two years ago, but it’s unclear how the team feels about Onwuzurike after he missed the 2022 season due to injury.
• Quarterback: If Detroit can’t trade up for Stroud or Young, they may decide to gamble on Anthony Richardson or Will Levis with their second selection, either with this pick or in a trade up. The ability to sit a developmental prospect behind Goff makes Detroit better equipped to handle a raw quarterback prospect than most of the other quarterback-needy teams. 

See sixth pick for more on the Lions’ draft plans.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Anthony Richardson, QB

Best Draft Targets for the Buccaneers with the 19th pick:

• Offensive Line: This once-dominant offensive line fell apart quickly. Now they need a new left tackle and, possibly, another guard. Darnell Wright, Anton Harrison and Dawand Jones are the most likely options on the board. Jones and Harrison would be considered a slight reach by most, but there’s a steep dropoff at the position once they’re off the board. 
• Anthony Richardson: Tampa does not appear to be taking a quarterback-or-bust approach to his draft, but could pull the trigger if the right player is there. New offensive coordinator Dave Canales (hired from Seattle) takes a simplistic approach to developing quarterbacks and his scheme could be the ideal fit for Richardson’s underdeveloped skill set.
• Bijan Robinson: Tampa doesn’t appear ready to rebuild. So if the passing game is going to take a step back without Tom Brady, it would make sense to lean into the run game. Licht has tried and failed to find a quality starting running back in the middle rounds of the draft, so he may adjust his approach and snag Robinson. 
• Defensive Line: The Bucs primarily rely on three-man fronts, which would make a prospect like Clemson’s Bryan Bresee appealing.
• Edge: 2021 first-round pick Joe Tryon-Shoyinka has continued to develop, but there’s no young depth around him. Georgia’s Nolan Smith or Iowa’s Lukas Van Ness would be tempting if they slide. 

Who calls the shots in the Buccaneers’ Draft Room?

GM Jason Licht (10th year) has final say over the roster. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Buccaneers Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Ranked 24th in pressure rate generated (31.3%)

20. Seattle Seahawks, Draft Pick Prediction: Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: John Michael Schmitz, C

Best Draft Targets for the Seahawks with the 20th pick:

• Myles Murphy: If Seattle can’t land Will Anderson at number five, Murphy could be a fallback plan here.
• Center: Seattle has an immediate need at center and this class is lacking depth at the position. Wisconsin’s Joe Tippman and Minnesota’s John Michael Schmitz are the two first-round candidates. If Seattle decides not to pursue one of the falling quarterbacks, expect them to trade down and potentially snag a center a few picks later. 
• Anthony Richardson: I can already hear the comments: “If they like Richardson, they’d just take him at five.” There are plenty of examples of teams addressing a more glaring need first and then rolling the dice on a quarterback prospect in the late first round. The Ravens drafted Hayden Hurst before Lamar Jackson, the Vikings took Anthony Barr before Teddy Bridgewater, and the Browns took Justin Gilbert before Johnny Manziel, to name a few. 
• Offensive Guard: The release of Gabe Jackson was not a shock, but does leave Seattle without an obvious solution at left guard. O’Cyrus Torrence, Peter Skoronski, and Darnell Wright are all potential options to fill an interior offensive line role in the first round.
• Wide Receiver: Seattle still has a strong duo in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, but 2021 second-round pick D’Wayne Eskridge has not panned out and the depth is lacking. Jordan Addison, Jalin Hyatt, and Josh Downs all have experience in the slot, which could allow for an easy transition into that role in Seattle’s offense. 

See fifth pick for more on the Seahawks’ draft plans. 

21. Los Angeles Chargers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Dalton Kincaid, TE

Best Draft Targets for the Chargers with the 21st pick:

• Wide Receiver: When healthy, the Chargers have a strong receiving corps. However, Mike Williams and Keenan Allen combined to miss 11 games last year. TCU’s Quentin Johnston would be an ideal fit if the Chargers want to add another weapon on the outside, while Jordan Addison or Zay Flowers wants to develop another weapon in the slot. 
• Dalton Kincaid: It’s possible Kincaid isn’t on the Chargers’ radar because of his shaky blocking skills. However, he’s one of the top pass-catchers in this class 一 among tight ends and receivers. If adding another reliable weapon for Justin Herbert is a priority, Kincaid should be high on their board. If they value blocking, Michael Mayer and Darnell Washington are better fits. 
• Bijan Robinson: Tom Telesco recently said Austin Ekeler‘s trade request doesn’t factor into their draft plans. Well, Ekeler is a 28-year-old year running back in the final year of his contract, so he doesn’t factor in their plans at all. Robinson is definitely in the conversation, especially because of what he brings to the table as a pass-catcher. Alabama’s Jahmyr Gibbs is worth mentioning also. If Robinson is gone, and Los Angeles doesn’t love this weak class of receivers, maybe Gibbs is an option. 
• Offensive Line: The Chargers plugged all their holes with short-term concerns, but long-term questions remain. If one of the top prospects falls, Telesco could pounce given the extreme lack of depth on Day 2 at the position. 

Who calls the shots in the Chargers’ draft room?

GM Tom Telesco (10th year) has final say over personnel decisions.

Key Stats & Notes for the Chargers Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 26.7% of dropbacks (ranked 30th)
• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 28% of carries (ranked 28th)
• Jamaree Salyer allowed a 6.7% pressure rate when lined up at left tackle, ranked 31st out of 35 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at left tackle
• Allowed three or more yards before contact to running backs on 31% of carries (ranked 31st)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 18.8% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 17th)

22. Baltimore Ravens, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Deonte Banks, CB

Best Draft Targets for the Ravens with the 22nd pick:

• Wide Receiver: Baltimore just can’t quite get it right when it comes to drafting and developing receivers around Jackson, but they have to give it another shot even after signing Odell Beckham. Lamar Jackson is rumored to like Zay Flowers, which could make him appealing to the Ravens as another sign of their commitment to Jackson. 
• Trade Down: Over the last 10 years, the Ravens have averaged 9.5 picks per draft, and have used more than their allotted seven picks in nine of those 10 years. Baltimore has just five picks in this draft. With Lamar Jackson likely signing a large contract soon, that further incentivizes them to add more cheap rookie contracts to the roster, so expect them to trade out of this slot.
• Cornerback: The Ravens reportedly pursued Darius Slay before he returned to Philly, so they clearly recognize this as a need. Deonte Banks and Emmanuel Forbes stand out as potential targets in this range.
• Edge: The league’s 28th-ranked pass rush could use some help, especially with veterans Jason Pierre-Paul and Justin Houston hitting the free agent market. This edge class is top heavy, but if someone like Myles Murphy or Nolan Smith were to fall, Baltimore could pounce.
• Safety: Chuck Clark (traded to Jets) is a significant loss. Although Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams remain, when all three were active, they were on the field at the same time for an average of 35.8 snaps per game. Baltimore could address this need with Alabama’s Brian Branch.

Who calls the shots in the Ravens’ draft room?

GM Eric DeCosta (fifth year as GM, 26th year in organization) controls roster construction and has maintained a similar approach to his former boss Ozzie Newsome.

Key Stats & Notes for the Ravens Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 28% of carries (ranked 27th)
• Ranked 28th in pressure rate generated (30.0%)
• Ranked 31st in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (56.3%)

23. Minnesota Vikings, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Kelee Ringo, CB

Best Draft Targets for the Vikings with the 23rd pick:

• Defensive Back: GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah values the secondary. He spent his first two picks on defensive backs last year, and the previous two seasons in Cleveland helped the Browns land Greg Newsome and Grant Delpit with top-50 selections. He also favors younger prospects with elite traits, which should put Kelee Ringo on his radar. Emmanuel Forbes’s elite on-ball production will also be appealing to the Vikings. 
• Wide Receiver: With Adam Thielen gone, this has become a more pressing need in Minnesota. The Vikings like to rotate their receivers, so adding someone with experience in the slot and the outside 一 North Carolina’s Josh Downs or USC’s Jordan Addison 一 would make sense. If they want more size, TCU’s Quentin Johnston could be an option.
• Tight End: Minnesota has T.J. Hockenson under contract for one more year, but it’s unclear if he’s part of the team’s long-term plans. In a deep class of tight ends, we should consider the possibility that Minnesota drafts Hockenson’s replacement now and allows him to learn for a year behind the veteran. Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer stands out as a good fit for a Hockenson-like role. 

Who calls the shots in the Vikings’ draft room?

GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah (second year) has final say over the roster. He has a background in analytics and spent the previous two seasons working under Andrew Berry in Cleveland. He was the director of football research & development under Trent Baalke in San Francisco prior to joining the Browns.

Key Stats & Notes for the Vikings Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 32% of carries (ranked 32nd)
• Ezra Cleveland ranked 63rd out of 69 guards in pressure rate allowed among players with at least 200 snaps in pass protection
• Ranked 30th in completions allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (59)
• Ranked 29th in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (8.1)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 19.1% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 26th)

24. Jacksonville Jaguars, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Brian Branch, S, Alabama

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Branch

Best Draft Targets for the Jaguars with the 24th pick:

• Brian Branch: The Jaguars primarily play single-high safety coverage, and need an upgrade in the strong safety role over Rayshawn Jenkins. Brian Branch fits that need and, as a team captain for Alabama, also fits their recent affinity for players with leadership traits.
• Wide Receiver: If you’re going to get past the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals, you’ll have to do it with offense. The Jaguars are close to building a unit that can compete on that level, but a receiving corps anchored by Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk isn’t enough. Doug Pederson likes flashy traits 一 either big receivers or speedsters 一 so Quentin Johnston’s size or Zay Flowers’s speed could be appealing. 
• Mazi Smith: Davon Hamilton has served as an adequate nose tackle, but he’s in the final year of his contract. Since defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell leans heavily on a three-man front, this is a critical position and the Jaguars are one of the few teams who might value Smith in the first round.
• Tight End: Doug Pederson helped develop an offense around Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert in Philly and will have an opportunity to land a quality tight end with this selection. Michael Mayer’s well-rounded traits make him a good fit.
• Offensive Line: Jacksonville needs to improve the protection for Trevor Lawrence and create a better run-blocking unit. Left tackle Cam Robinson and right guard Brandon Scherff are likely locked into starting roles, but upgrades are possible at the other positions. Florida’s O’Cyrus Torrence, potentially the first interior lineman off the board, could slide into the starting job at left guard. 

Who Calls the Shots in Jaguars’ Draft Room?

GM Trent Baalke (third year) and head coach Doug Pederson (second year) supposedly share control of the roster. The Jaguars have not publicly stated who has the final say 一 though it’s likely Baalke, considering he participated in the hiring of Pederson.

Key Stats & Notes for the Jaguars Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 27% of carries (ranked 23rd)

25. New York Giants, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Joe Tippmann, C

Best Draft Targets for the Giants with the 25th pick:

• Cornerback: Most of the Giants secondary is on track to hit free agency after this season, so address that need a year early could be a priority here. It’s hard to guess who will still be on the board, but it’s a deep cornerback class and someone among Deonte Banks, Joey Porter Jr. and Emmanuel Forbes is likely to be available.
• Center: The Giants don’t have a starting center on the roster. It’s a fairly deep class at the position, so it appears they’re aiming to land one in the draft. Wisconsin’s Joe Tippman is a unique prospect due to his size (6’6”). Centers are rarely that tall, but Giants offensive line coach Bobby Johnson recently worked with 6’6” Mitch Morse in Buffalo.
• Wide Receiver: The Giants’ got the most out of a patchwork receiving corps last season, but significant upgrades are needed. Jalin Hyatt’s ability to stretch the field could add a new dimension to the offense. Quentin Johnston’s size on the outside could also be a valuable addition. 

Who calls the shots in the Giants’ draft room?

GM Joe Schoen (second year) has final say over roster decisions. He spent the previous five seasons as the assistant general manager to Brandon Beane in Buffalo.

Key Stats & Notes for the Giants Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 25.7% of dropbacks (ranked 28th)
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 19% of carries (ranked 31st)
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 16.8% of carries (ranked 32nd)

26. Dallas Cowboys, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Jordan Addison, WR

Best Draft Targets for the Cowboys with the 26th pick:

• Bijan Robinson: Dallas likes drafting from the top tier of players across all positions, which almost certainly puts Robinson near the top of the draft board. Although the Cowboys have not signaled any interest in Robinson this offseason, that could be because they know certain teams behind them (especially the division-rival Eagles) may also have interest and Dallas doesn’t want to force someone to trade up (which the Eagles are known to do).
• Tight End: Following that trend of targeting the top tier of players at each position, Dallas likely will consider Dalton Kincaid or Michael Mayer. Due to his blocking skills, Mayer may be a better fit for the Dallas offense. 
• Wide Receiver: Dallas missed Amari Cooper this past season. Adding a versatile weapon might emerge as a priority with this selection. Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba stands out as the ideal fit, but would probably require a trade up. Jordan Addison has slot/outside versatility, which is a trait Dallas typically likes.

Who calls the shots in the Cowboys’ draft room?

Director of player personnel Stephen Jones effectively acts as the general manager with significant input from VP of player personnel Will McClay. Obviously, owner Jerry Jones has been known to step in and make decisions as well.

Key Stats & Notes for the Cowboys Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Generated three or more yards before contact for running backs on 21% of carries (ranked 27th)
• Receivers had a 9.9% drop rate on targets 10 or more yards downfield (ranked 28th)
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 13.5% of carries (ranked 26th)
• Ranked 24th in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (7.9)

27. Buffalo Bills, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Bijan Robinson, RB

Best Draft Targets for the Bills with the 27th pick:

• Wide Receiver: Since Gabriel Davis is on track to hit free agency after the year, Buffalo may want to address that need a year early. Quentin Johnston’s size makes him the best fit as a Davis replacement. Josh Downs or Jalin Hyatt could be options as well, but are better suited for a role in the slot in Buffalo.
• Trenton Simpson: The Bills need to find a replacement for Tremaine Edmunds, which means finding a linebacker who excels in coverage. Simpson is the most logical fit, though Iowa’s Jack Campbell or Arkansas’s Drew Sanders are possible options.  
• Offensive Tackle: It’s also unclear how confident the team remains in right tackle Spencer Brown, who was often a liability in pass protection this past season. If they’re looking for an upgrade at right tackle, Ohio State’s Dawand Jones fits the profile Buffalo has targeted at that position.
• Bijan Robinson: GM Brandon Beane has tried to solve Buffalo’s running back issues with Day 2 picks, but not much has come of those selections. With relatively few holes elsewhere, he could probably justify spending a first-round pick on someone as special as Robinson.  Beane was in Carolina when the Panthers drafted Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams in the first round, so he’s been a part of a front office willing to invest in the position.

Who calls the shots in the Bills’ draft room?

GM Brandon Beane (seventh year) officially has final say over the roster, but head coach Sean McDermott’s opinion is believed to carry equal weight. McDermott and Beane were hired together in 2017 and also worked together for six seasons in Carolina.

Key Stats & Notes for the Bills Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Opposing quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 25.6% of dropbacks (ranked 27th)
• Spencer Brown allowed a 6.6% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 31st out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle.
• Led league in drop rate on targets of 10 or more yards downfield at 12.6%
• Allowed 10 or more rushing yards on 14.0% of carries (ranked 29th)

28. Cincinnati Bengals, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Darnell Washington, TE

Best Draft Targets for the Bengals with the 28th pick:

• Tight End: Michael Mayer is the ideal fit, but Darnell Washington could be a backup plan. The Bengals love team captains and big-game experience, both of which apply to Mayer and Washington. 
• Offensive Line: Whether the Bengals honor Jonah Williams’ trade request or not, they’ll still need to find a suitable right tackle soon, as Williams hits free agency after the 2023 season. Dawand Jones, Anton Harrison, and Darnell Wright are all possible targets. 
• Secondary: The Bengals lost Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates to free agency. Last year’s first-round pick Dax Hill should take one of the starting jobs despite an underwhelming rookie year. Nick Scott was added from the Rams in free agency but is probably more of a backup plan than someone the Bengals are expecting to start and produce at a high level. Alabama’s Brian Branch would be an obvious target if still on the board.
• Defensive Line: D.J. Reader is an anchor on the Bengals’ defensive line at nose tackle, but they could use an upgrade over B.J. Hill, who offers modest value as an interior pass-rusher. This need likely isn’t a high priority, but if the right player is on the board 一 maybe Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey or Clemson’s Bryan Bresee 一 it’s an area the Bengals could address.
• Emmanuel Forbes: Lou Anarumo likes corners with length and speed. Emmanuel Forbes is the most obvious fit of those likely on the board. South Carolina’s Darius Rush is another great fit, but he is probably a reach. Kelee Ringo, Deonte Banks, Cam Smith, and Tyrqiue Stevenson all have traits that might put them in the conversation.

Who calls the shots in the Bengals’ draft room?

Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin has final say over roster construction.

Key Stats & Notes for the Bengals Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Opposing quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 22.1% of dropbacks (ranked 18th)
• Ranked 25th in pressure rate generated on non-blitzes (27.8%)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 20.6% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 23rd)
• Allowed three or more yards before contact to running backs on 27% of carries (ranked 27th)

29. New Orleans Saints, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Calijah Kancey, DL, Pitt

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Trenton Simpson, LB

Best Draft Targets for the Saints with the 29th pick:

• Defensive Tackle: David Onyemata, Kentavius Street, and Shy Tuttle each played over 500 snaps last year and all left in free agency. If the Saints need an interior pass-rusher, Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey is their guy; if they want a nose tackle, Michigan’s Mazi Smith could make sense.
• Trenton Simpson: The Saints have been known to draft for needs a year or two early, which could put Simpson on their radar as a replacement for 34-year-old Demario Davis. New Orleans tends to like players with elite athleticism without sacrificing too much in terms of size. Iowa’s Jack Campbell looks like a good fit as well. 
• Wide Receiver: Despite drafting Chris Olave in the first round last year, the Saints receiving corps is still in a rough place. We don’t know what Michael Thomas has left, and there’s minimal depth after him. Jordan Addison, who excels from the slot, would be a nice complement to Olave on the outside. 
• Cornerback: Almost everyone in the Saints’ secondary underachieved last year, which likely means changes are coming. Marshon Lattimore will be back, but 2021 third-round pick Paulson Adebo has underwhelmed through two seasons. A number of cornerbacks are likely to come off the board near the back end of the first round, including Maryland’s Deonte Banks and Mississippi State’s Emmanuel Forbes.

Who calls the shots in the Saints’ draft room?

GM Mickey Loomis likely has final say, though the power dynamic is unclear since the departure of Sean Payton (who previously had final say). Since Loomis does not have a background in scouting, assistant GM and director of college personnel Jeff Ireland likely has substantial input in the draft.

Key Stats & Notes for the Saints Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Ranked 26th in pressure rate generated (30.6%)
• Generated pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 15.8% of opponent dropbacks (ranked 31st)
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 22% of carries (ranked 23rd)

30. Philadelphia Eagles, Draft Pick Prediction: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: O’Cyrus Torrence, OG

Best Draft Targets for the Eagles with the 30th pick:

• Brian Branch: The Eagles won’t reach to fill this need, but if Branch is on the board he’s a good fit. Terrell Edmunds and Justin Evans were signed to one-year contracts, so clearly the team is still looking for long-term solutions at safety. Illinois’s Sydney Jones is another potential target. 
• Offensive Line: The offensive line is in a good place for now, but the Eagles know from recent experience the value of offensive line depth. With Jason Kelce likely to retire soon and Lane Johnson getting up there in age, they could add an interior lineman like O’Cyrus Torrence or a future right tackle in Anton Harrison.  
• Bijan Robinson: It’s hard to imagine the Eagles are confident in Rashaad Penny‘s ability to stay healthy. They’re more likely to add depth later, but Robinson will be tempting if he’s on the board. Eagles running backs ran between the tackles on 45% of carries last year, the league’s eighth-highest rate per Sports Info Solutions 一 a style that suits Robinson perfectly. If Robinson is gone, Jahmyr Gibbs’s could be a fit, though for different reasons. Gibbs would add a new dimension to the passing game, and give the Eagles offense even more flexibility. 

See 10th pick for more on the Eagles’ draft plans. 

31. Kansas City Chiefs, Top Draft Pick Prediction: O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Dawand Jones, OT

Best Draft Targets for the Chiefs with the 31st pick:

• Offensive Line: Orlando Brown and Andrew Wylie are both gone. Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison, Ohio State’s Dawand Jones, and Tennessee’s Darnell Wright all have the potential to still be on the board and could replace Wylie at right tackle. All three will also be 21 years old on draft day, which fits the Chiefs’ tendency for targeting younger prospects. Offensive line coach Andy Heck has a strong track record of quickly developing raw prospects (applies to Harrison) and bigger tackles (applies to Jones and Wright). O’Cyrus Torrence could also potentially fit as an eventual replacement for Joe Thuney. 
• Wide Receiver: With JuJu Smith-Schuster gone, the Chiefs are lacking size in the receiving corps. TCU’s Quentin Johnston has a similar skill set to Smith-Schuster and could step into that role. The Chiefs have also shown an obvious interest in Zay Flowers, though his skill set is awfully similar to Skyy Moore, last year’s second-round pick. 
• Tight End: Obviously the Chiefs don’t need to replace Travis Kelce yet. However, tight ends are typically slow to develop and Kelce turns 34 years old in October. This is a fantastic class of tight ends, so it may be a good opportunity for the Chiefs to add a young prospect to groom behind Kelce for a year or two. 

Who calls the shots in the Chiefs’ draft room?

GM Brett Veach (seventh year) officially has final say over the roster, but Andy Reid’s opinion carries significant weight. The two have worked together since Reid hired Veach as a coaching intern in 2004, and Veach followed Reid to Kansas City in 2013. 

Key Stats & Notes for the Chiefs Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Ranked 23rd in yards per attempt allowed when the quarterback was not pressured (7.9)

Non-first-round top picks

36. Los Angeles Rams, Top Draft Pick Prediction: BJ Ojulari, EDGE, LSU

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Ojulari

Best Draft Targets for the Rams with the 36th pick:

• Trade Down: The Rams’ roster is bare and so is their draft capital. Trading down to acquire more picks and help fill out the roster should be a priority.
• Pass-Rushers: Leonard Floyd, Bobby Wagner, and Greg Gaines combined for 90 pressures last year, 42% of the Rams’ total. Attempting to replace some of that production will be a priority in the draft.
• Left Tackle: Joe Noteboom did not get the job done as Andrew Whitworth’s replacement last year. Fortunately, he’s still under contract, so the Rams don’t need to force a rookie into that role. However, it would be wise to add a young prospect to compete for the job. Syracuse’s Matthew Bergeron and Maryland’s Jaelyn Duncan and two possible Day 2 options. 

Who calls the shots in the Rams’ draft room?

GM Les Snead (12th year) has final say over personnel decisions.

Key Stats & Notes for the Rams Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Joe Noteboom allowed a 10.0% pressure rate when lined up at left tackle, ranked 35th out of 35 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at left tackle.
• Ranked 30th in pressure rate generated (27.7%)
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 21% of carries (ranked 27th)

51. Miami Dolphins, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Matthew Bergeron, OL, Syracuse

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Bergeron

Best Draft Targets for the Dolphins with the 51stpick:

• Trade Down: The Dolphins need more picks to fill out the roster, so moving down to acquire a few extra players might be the top priority for this pick.
• Wide Receiver: Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are a great one-two punch at receiver, but the unit would be more complete with a bigger weapon in the mix. The 6’3” Cedric Tillman would provide some size, while also providing another weapon who can stretch the field.
• Offensive Line: The Dolphins could address any position on the offensive line, though the depth of this class may dictate a focus on the interior offensive line with this selection. Connor Williams’s experience at both guard and center allows Miami to be flexible in who they target. 

Who calls the shots in the Dolphins’ draft room?

GM Chris Grier (seventh year) has final say over personnel decisions but has accepted substantial input from past head coaches, which likely applies to Mike McDaniel (second year) as well.

Key Stats & Notes for the Dolphins Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Opposing quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 23.4% of dropbacks (ranked 21st)
• Brandon Shell allowed a 6.8% pressure rate when lined up at right tackle, ranked 35th out of 36 players with at least 200 pass protection snaps at right tackle.
• Liam Eichenberg ranked 60th out of 69 guards in pressure rate allowed among players with at least 200 snaps in pass protection.

67. Denver Broncos, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Dexter

Best Draft Targets for the Broncos with the 67th pick:

• Running Back: With Javonte Williams coming off a season-ending injury, adding some depth wouldn’t be a bad idea. Even if Williams returns to form, adding some speed to the backfield is a must. A well-rounded weapon like Devon Achane would be an ideal complement to Williams, who is a more traditional downhill runner. 
• Defensive Line: The Broncos’ run defense was a liability at times, and building a unit capable of more disruption should be an offseason priority. Florida’s Gervon Dexter and Wisconsin’s Keeanu Benton are possible options in this range of the draft. 

Who calls the shots in the Broncos’ draft room?

GM George Paton (third year) has final say over the roster. Prior to joining Denver, he spent the majority of his career as Rick Spielman’s right-hand man in Minnesota and Miami and appears to be taking a similar approach to building the Broncos as he and Spielman did with the Vikings.

Key Stats & Notes for the Broncos Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Russell Wilson had a boom-bust ratio of 1.01, ranked 37th out of 41 qualified quarterbacks (boom-bust ratio: plays with +1 EPA or higher compared to plays of -1 EPA or worse)
• Quarterbacks pressured in 2.5 seconds or less on 25.2% of dropbacks (ranked 26th)
• Ranked 25th in pressure rate generated (31.3%)
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 20% of carries (ranked 29th)

74. Cleveland Browns, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Israel Abanikanda, RB, Pittsburgh

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Abanikanda

Best Draft Targets for the Browns with the 74th pick:

• Pass Rusher: Jadeveon Clowney wore out his welcome and is now gone. Although Myles Garrett can do damage on his own, Cleveland’s pass rush unit was significantly more dangerous with Clowney on the field, too. A young, developing prospect like Missouri’s Isaiah McGuire or Michigan’s Mike Morris would be options.
• Running Back: Kareem Hunt is still on the market and D’Ernest Johnson is gone, so depth is needed. Additionally, 27-year-old Nick Chubb is under contract for only two more years. Adding a young ball carrier to help keep Chubb fresh during his final years in Cleveland should be on their radar on Day 2. 

Who calls the shots in the Browns’ draft room?

GM Andrew Berry (fourth  year) has final say, with input from chief strategy officer Paul DePodesta (eighth year) and head coach Kevin Stefanski (fourth year)

Key Stats & Notes for the Browns Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Committed NFL-worst 28 offensive holding penalties. 
• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 30% of carries (ranked 30th)
• Generated 35.4% pressure rate with Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney on the field; 28.6% with one or both not on the field. 
• Ranked 23rd in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (47.3%)
• Contacted opposing running backs in the backfield on 22% of carries (ranked 24th)

99. San Francisco 49ers, Top Draft Pick Prediction: Nick Saldiveri, OT, Old Dominion

Previous 7.0 Mock Draft selection: Saldiveri

Best Draft Targets for the 49ers with the 99th pick:

• Offensive Tackle: They can’t expect to replace Mike McGinchey with this selection, but they can add a young prospect to compete for a job. 
• Wide Receiver: It’s impossible to predict a pick this late in the draft, but there’s always wide receiver depth in his range and it’s a need for the 49ers. A weapon with slot/outside versatility, such as Princeton’s Andrei Iosivas, would be an ideal target. 
• Tight End: Adding some insurance and depth behind George Kittle would be a wise decision. This is a deep class at tight end, so there will likely be some quality tight ends still on the board.

Who calls the shots in the 49ers’ draft room?

GM John Lynch (seventh year) has final say over personnel decisions.

Key Stats & Notes for the 49ers Heading into the 2023 NFL Draft

• Running backs were contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 27% of carries (ranked 24th)
• Ranked 31st in completion rate allowed at 15 or more yards downfield (51.9%)

7.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Apr 17)

6.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Apr 10)

5.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Apr 3)

4.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Mar 20)

3.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Mar 13)

2.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Mar 10)

1.0 NFL Mock Draft from Ryan McCrystal (Feb 27)