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I wanted to be excited about preseason games.
We hadn’t seen live reps since early February, so when August rolls around, not only are we almost to the start of the regular season, but we’re hungry for any sort of football where Team A lines up and tries to overpower or outclass Team B.
Sadly, this preseason hasn’t been too fun. If you’ve watched it, you’ve seen it too.
I have access to detailed preseason data since 2017 (seven years of data).
Here’s what it says about the 2024 preseason:
Offenses are averaging -0.13 EPA/play.
The worst of any year.
Offenses are averaging 35% success.
The worst of any year.
Quarterbacks are averaging only -0.10 EPA/dropback.
The worst of any year.
Quarterbacks are averaging only 6.2 yards per attempt.
The worst of any year.
Quarterbacks are completing only 60.9% of their attempts.
The worst of any year.
What has been the result of all this inefficient offense?
Teams are averaging 15.6 points per game.
The lowest of any year.
And as a result, unders have been cashing like gold. Preseason unders have gone 27-6 (82%).
That’s insane.
That can’t be good for the product, can it?
The NFL came out with rule changes to make the game more exciting because the NFL knows more people will watch if the games see more scoring.
This year, the NFL changed the kickoff rules to generate more kickoff returns, which makes the game more exciting.
A byproduct was starting field position should improve slightly, which should help scoring and benefit the NFL.
But instead of us watching more points being scored, we’re watching paint dry.
So what gives? Why are these games so preseason games so boring? Why is scoring at a historic low?
Let’s examine three reasons.
The first two are pretty obvious and anyone could guess they would contribute to worse offense and fewer points being scored.
But the third one…the third one is potentially the real reason and it’s yet another example of the NFL’s incompetence.
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Starting Quarterbacks Are Playing Less
This is a part of it. We’ve played two weeks of preseason football, and even the youngest QBs aren’t getting as much run.
Josh Allen has four total dropbacks. Jordan Love has two. Joe Burrow has seven. We know some coaches don’t let their QBs get any preseason run, like Sean McVay, but we’re seeing plenty of starting QBs with very few game reps through two weeks.
With worse quarterbacks playing more of the game, we’ll get worse QB play and we’ll see worse offense.
I count eight starting QBs who have played but have seven dropbacks or fewer: Love, Allen, Burrow, Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, Will Levis, and Brock Purdy.
This isn’t the entire problem, however.
For instance, in 2023’s preseason seven starting QBs played but had nine or fewer dropbacks. So slightly less passing from QB1s, but not by an incredible margin.
A part of the issue, but not close to the whole issue.
Head Coaches Don’t Care Nearly as Much About Game Results
More and more head coaches are calling offensive plays. But during the preseason, they’ve been handing those duties off to assistants to help give them experience.
As a result, we’re not getting the “A+” play calling that we will get during the season. We’re getting an understudy getting his toes wet.
In addition, many coaches care even less about preseason games. Certainly not about winning them. It’s not something you can measure, but it sure feels that way.
As such, there is probably less time spent on scheming anything for an opponent. The focus is on evaluating the back half of the roster and keeping guys healthy.
Thus, coaches are “showing” less, hiding more, and not even wanting to waste their time stressing on it. They’re letting assistants handle it.
But it’s been trending this way for some time and is extremely difficult to measure.
Again, this is a part of the issue, but not close to the whole issue.
A HUGE Part of the Problem: Referees
I don’t always blame refs, but when I do, I’m right.
Despite seeing the same number of games being played now for seven straight years through two weeks of preseason football, refs are swallowing their whistles on defensive infractions and offenses are paying the price, as are we, the viewers.
I’ll walk through several different sets of data, and to be clear, every year they cover the same sample size: all 32 games played in the first two weeks of preseason since 2017.
Automatic first downs awarded by penalty:
- 2017: 112
- 2018: 192
- 2019: 164
- 2021: 105
- 2022: 127
- 2023: 123
- 2024: 85
There were an average of 137 from 2017-2023 and an average of 125 in the prior two years.
But this year, only 85.
A reduction of between 32%-38%.
Massive.
In terms of overall defensive penalties, we’ve had almost 150 per year called the last two years and an average of 166 over the prior six years.
This year, we’re down to 107, a reduction of between 28%-36%.
But the same is not happening on offense.
So far, we’ve had 222 offensive penalties this year.
In the prior two years, we averaged 228. Nearly identical.
In the prior six years, we averaged the very same 228. We’re talking a decrease of six penalties, from 228 down to 222.
Nothing close to the 38% decrease in defensive penalties.
What types of penalties are being called less on defenses?
We are seeing a massive drop in several penalty types. The top-five?
- 57% decline in defensive offsides penalties
- 6 this year
- 14/yr the prior two years
- 15/yr the prior six years
- 47% decline in roughing the passer
- 8 this year
- 15/yr the prior two years
- 15/yr the prior six years
- 39% decline in defensive pass interference
- 21 this year
- 35/yr the prior two years
- 35/yr the prior six years
- 33% decline in DPI yardage assessed
- 337 yards this year
- 566 yards/yr the prior two years
- 612 yards/yr the prior six years
- 24% decline in defensive holding
- 17 this year
- 23/yr the prior two years
- 26/yr the prior six years
Why are we seeing so many of these defensive penalty types not called? When you look at the prior year averages, the prior two years (2022-23) are generally QUITE SIMILAR to the prior six-year averages (2017-23).
So why is 2024 so different?
I fail to believe it’s just accidental. These refs are getting coached and instructed. And for whatever reason, they’re throwing far fewer flags on the defense.
Take for example just the simple pre-snap penalties of defensive offsides & neutral zone vs offensive false starts.
2024 false starts on the offense: 88
Prior two years? 88 per year (zero change)
Identical rates of false starts on the offense.
2024 offsides on the defense? 6
Prior two years? 14 pear year (decrease of 57% this year)
2024 neutral zone infractions on the defense? 12
Prior two years? 16 per year (decrease of 23% this year)
Before a play really gets underway, we’re calling much less on the defense than usual but similar on the offense.
And when the play is underway, we’re seeing way less being called on defenses via DPI, defensive holding, and roughing the passer.
This has a DIRECT IMPACT on scoring.
Meanwhile, refs have called 12 ineligible man downfield penalties this year. In the prior two years, the average was 6.5 per year.
In the prior six years, it was only 4 per year. Double to triple the amount called this year, while defenses are being penalized less often.
Is the NFL aware of this?
I’d be shocked if they were because they weren’t aware of what refs were doing to scoring to start the 2023 season before I wrote a detailed article describing things and, no shock, penalties were called much more evenly thereafter when word of the article made its way to the right people.
This isn’t something that should be ignored.
If the product is painful to watch, as it has been, it hurts everyone.
Why are refs calling things differently this year? Why are they calling penalties on the offense at the same rates, but swallowing their whistles on defensive penalties?
Unless you strangely think that defenses are suddenly error-free and have found a way to clean up the game on their side of the ball by 40%, which I do not.
If the NFL’s refs continue to call penalties in the regular season in a similar manner to what they’ve called in the preseason, we will be in for a hard to watch, ugly, and lower scoring season in 2024.
I don’t think the NFL wants that, because we as viewers certainly don’t want that, and they want what will make them the most money, and that’s TV viewers.
The NFL has only two weeks to clean this up before the regular season is here. Better get started right now.
