What if I told you the team that could’ve gone 15-2 last year was the Denver Broncos?
No, seriously.
Flip every one-score result in 2024 — turn close losses into close wins, and vice versa — and the Broncos would’ve finished 15-2. Best in the NFL. By far.
The Chiefs? They fall to 4-13.
The Browns? Also 4-13.
But Denver? 15-2!
Now, of course, that’s not how football works. The Broncos actually went 10-7.
But here’s the twist: they were 1-6 in one-score games.
And when they won? They crushed teams.
Seven of their 10 wins were by 14 or more points — the most in the league.
That’s not a team sneaking out victories.
That’s a team with real firepower — and massive potential.
And it all happened with a rookie QB…facing the league’s fourth-toughest schedule of defenses.
Bo Nix had every reason to struggle — and he still led this team to a 10-5 finish over the final 15 weeks.
Now, the expectations are sky high.
Last summer, Denver was favored in just two games.
This year? Favored in 12.
Their win total jumped from 5.5 to 9.5.
Let’s talk about why that optimism might be warranted — and what still needs to improve.
First, the offensive line.
Quietly, the 2024 Broncos had the NFL’s #1 ranked blocking unit:
- #1 in run block win rate
- #1 in pass block win rate
- #1 in short-yardage conversion rate (on non-Javonte Williams carries)
- #5 in yards before contact per rush
But you wouldn’t know it watching Javonte Williams run into defenders.
Williams ranked:
- Dead last in yards after contact
- Dead last in explosive runs
- Bottom five in YPC, success rate, and fumbles
Over two full seasons, he was one of the least efficient backs in football — so his departure this offseason was a blessing in disguise.
In his place, enter RJ Harvey, one of the most explosive backs in the 2025 draft class.
At UCF, he racked up 1,844 total yards and 25 touchdowns last season.
He led the class in outside run production with 8.2 YPC and posted elite speed and burst metrics across the board. This dude isn’t just a replacement — he’s a potential game-changer.
And behind that dominant line? He’s walking into the perfect setup.
But if Harvey doesn’t pop, the Broncos still brought in J.K. Dobbins, who quietly finished sixth in explosive run rate last year after a bounce back season with the Chargers.
Now let’s pivot to what really fueled Denver’s rise — the defense.
In 2023, this was a bottom-three unit across the board.
But in 2024?
- From 31st to 1st in overall defensive efficiency
- From 30th to 1st in pass defense
- From 32nd to 2nd in run defense
- Most sacks in the NFL — 63 total, a franchise record
The key? Simplifying the scheme.
Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph stripped it down.
Patrick Surtain II won Defensive Player of the Year. Riley Moss stepped up as a legit CB2. Brandon Jones solidified the back end with 115 tackles and 3 picks.
They ran the third-highest rate of man coverage, mixed in disguised blitzes and stunts, and suffocated opposing offenses.
Can they repeat that level of dominance this year? Maybe. But the scheme, continuity, and talent all remain.
So…what’s still missing?
Three key things:
1. Faster starts
Denver ranked 23rd in first-quarter points per game last year, but eighth in the rest of the game.
Sean Payton eased Nix in early… but often found himself trailing after 15 minutes.
2. Better early down efficiency
Denver was 29th in early-down offense.
Half of their first downs led to third downs — that’s bottom three.
With Williams gone, that should improve. But Payton has to stay aggressive.
3. Continued growth from Bo Nix
Early in games, when pressured, Nix was brutal: -0.54 EPA per attempt.
But in the second half, his EPA under pressure jumped to -0.13 — a massive improvement.
Now heading into 2025, the Broncos face a top 10 schedule of defenses including the #7 toughest set of pass defenses.
But they also have a better rest schedule and a smart roster build.
They’re spending bottom-five money on quarterbacks and running backs — and instead investing heavily in the trenches, where games are won.
The Broncos are built the right way.
The defense is legit.
The offensive line is elite.
The run game is finally explosive.
And Nix? He’s got the tools and now, the experience.
If Payton lets him attack early, and if Nix takes even a small step forward, Denver isn’t just a fun story.
They’re a legitimate playoff contender and threat to everyone they face in 2025.
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Warren Sharp’s 550+ page full-color PDF, the 2025 Football Preview, is unlike anything you have previously read. Stunning visualizations, including new heat maps, are built with the reader in mind. Innovative, next-level thought process abounds in every team chapter and article.
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