The Ravens are 5-2 and sit atop the AFC North. While win total is a bad measuring stick for quarterback performance, Lamar Jackson has been a big part of the Ravens’ success. After a less-than-assuring rookie campaign, there are some skeptics who are writing off his newfound success or otherwise reserving judgment until they see a greater sample of games.
One idea that’s been batted around by this vocal minority is the notion that Jackson is a ‘system quarterback,’ which has long been a pejorative term for quarterbacks whose production is either exclusively or overwhelmingly attributable to their coaches and the talent around them. Ignoring the fact that quarterbacks seldom succeed without help from the friends they’ve met along the way, this labeling of Jackson seems strange because it’s being used in the most antithetical sense.
Whereas the system quarterback of lore is theoretically easily replaced, there may not be another quarterback who could take Jackson’s place as the engine of the Ravens’ offense. While the scheme has certainly been architected with him in mind, his abilities open Baltimore to possibilities that few other teams could hope to even experiment with. And whereas NFL defenses are by and large accustomed to shooting at stationary targets in the pocket, Jackson poses a unique set of challenges not just because of his mobility, but with his understated ability as a passer, as well.
Running Ability
It is not a revelation to say Jackson is a dynamic running talent, and it is no coincidence the Ravens have been very efficient from a rushing standpoint. They are averaging a whopping 0.12 EPA/Attempt on designed runs, which is double the figure of the next-highest team (the Texans). Much of this success can be attributed to the option run game. 34% of the Ravens’ designed runs have been some form of option scheme, whether it be zone read, power read, speed option, or the rare triple option. Jackson’s game-changing abilities in the run game have enabled the Ravens to execute these concepts to the tune of 0.14 EPA/Attempt.
It merits clarifying that those figures don’t consider scrambles. In addition to his utility as a designed runner, Jackson also fundamentally changes the complexion of defensive structures due to his ability to exploit man coverage. SIS alumnus and Next Gen Stats researcher Keegan Abdoo previously investigated this and found that 1) Jackson’s collegiate opponents avoided playing man against him, and 2) scrambles were generally more effective against man coverage schemes.
Indeed, the data from this season bears out the conclusions of Abdoo’s research. Five of the Ravens’ seven opponents thus far have played considerably less man in their matchups against Jackson than they have in their other games this season. The Seahawks (-8 percentage points), Chiefs (-21), Cardinals (-15), Dolphins (-24), and Browns (-8) all toned down their usage of man – presumably out of respect for Jackson’s running ability.
Passing Proficiency
Now that we’ve established the running game value Jackson has—with respect to how he opens schematic possibilities for his offense while limiting possibilities for opposing defenses—it’s time to impose our will on those that suggest he’s a Mendoza line passer. He ranks 13th in Sports Info Solutions’ Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) (105.5) — which accounts for drops and throwaways — and 19th in Passing Total Points Earned/Attempt (0.15) among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts.
While the latter figure isn’t particularly impressive, it’s worth noting that he’s outperforming his 2018 quarterback classmates.
It would be disingenuous to suggest he doesn’t have room to improve, however — he ranks 26th of 33 quarterbacks (minimum 100 attempts) in catchable throw rate at 72%, and his efficiency metrics would accordingly benefit from a few more bullseyes. He could also help himself by finding the holes in zone coverage more, as his 44% positive play rate (percentage of plays with positive expected points added) vs. zone ranks just 28th of 34 quarterbacks (minimum 50 attempts).
Nevertheless, Jackson is providing sufficient value in the passing game while adding a dimension of complexity to the run game, helping make the Ravens the seventh-ranked offense from a DVOA perspective. The undefeated Patriots come into town this week, and if anybody can figure out how to clip Jackson’s wings, it’s Bill Belichick, who has already faced the other four first-round members of the 2018 quarterback class this season. Regardless of what happens Sunday night, we should acknowledge Jackson’s development and appreciate the show he’s put on so far.
