Have you ever seen a disaster coming from miles away?
Sometimes it's a hurricane.
Other times, it's the 2024 Las Vegas Raiders.
Because while natural disasters are hard to predict, man-made ones — such as Antonio Pierce‘s Raiders — were painfully obvious.
This is a team that fell for the illusion.
Pierce “earned” the head coaching job by finishing 8-9 in 2023 with a feel-good locker room, a low-turnover run-heavy style, and an absolute luckbox of a schedule. But the underlying numbers screamed: this is a fluke.
And guess what? It was.
The 2024 Raiders regressed in exactly the ways we predicted:
From the #2 healthiest team to #31
From the #1 turnover rate to #30
From #4 in red zone TD% to dead last
They couldn't sustain drives, couldn't stay healthy, couldn't finish.
They ended up firing the GM, the HC, and the staff.
A total gutting. And finally, a chance to rebuild from the rubble.
Enter Pete Carroll. Enter Chip Kelly. Enter Geno Smith. Enter Ashton Jeanty.
The 2025 Raiders might not be contenders, but for once, they actually have a vision.
Let’s start with Geno.
He doesn’t get the love he deserves, but Smith has quietly been the most accurate quarterback in the NFL over the last four seasons.
Yes, #1 in accuracy. Ahead of Joe Burrow. Ahead of Kirk Cousins. Ahead of everyone.
And what did the 2024 Raiders desperately lack? Accuracy.
Their offense ranked #26 in on-target throws, with weapons like Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers routinely seeing inaccurate passes.
That changes now.
Even more promising? Geno has massive dome splits.
Indoors over the last three years, he posted:
- 20:3 TD-to-INT
- +0.18 EPA/play
- 52% success rate
- 8.2 yards per attempt
In 2025, he’ll play 12 dome games. That’s more than the last three years combined.
Translation: We might get the best version of Geno yet.
And unlike in Seattle, where he was stuck behind a horrid offensive line, the Raiders' protection unit is better across the board.
But Geno isn't the only upgrade. The backfield gets a huge boost, too.
Meet Jeanty, the No. 6 overall pick.
He ran for 100+ yards in every game last year, averaged 7.0 YPC, and was the entire offense for Boise State.
Jeanty accounted for 42% of his team’s total yardage, broke tackles like Marshawn, and averaged a mind-bending 4.8 yards after contact per carry.
When hit at or behind the line, he still averaged nearly 3 yards per carry.
Now he replaces a Raiders rushing attack that ranked dead last in:
- EPA/rush
- Success rate
- First down or TD rate on runs
Jeanty + Geno = actual offensive firepower.
And if you want explosive plays? Look no further than rookie wideout Dont'e Thornton Jr.
This guy is a 6-foot-5 speed demon who clocked a 4.3 forty, hit 23.7 mph in the 40, and led FBS with 25.4 yards per catch. One out of every four catches went for a touchdown.
Pair that vertical threat with Bowers underneath and Meyers in the slot, and Chip Kelly finally has some pieces to cook with.
Of course, it's not all sunshine.
The Raiders' secondary is the worst in football.
Their schedule is brutal.
- #32 in net rest
- #32 in rest and prep variables
- 5 games with less rest than opponent
- 2 short-week road games
Their one “rest edge”? A single extra day in Week 15, for an early 1 PM game in Philadelphia.
They start the season with tough matchups and logistical nightmares, including back-to-back opponents off mini-byes while they travel cross-country on short rest.
If you want a blueprint for “how to sabotage a rebuild,” just look at this schedule.
Still, there is real hope.
This isn’t another Antonio Pierce illusion. This isn’t a run-heavy, field-position pipe dream propped up by luck.
This is a team that invested in accuracy, explosiveness, and upside.
A team that recognized its flaws and attacked them head-on.
And if the defense can be just league-average — especially against what projects to be the NFL’s easiest schedule of passing offenses — then the Raiders may be better than anyone expects.
2024 was a disaster. But 2025? It's not a Super Bowl run.
It's a restart.
And sometimes, those are exactly what a franchise needs.
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