The NFL Playoffs are obviously here. There are futures picks, game breakdowns, pools, observations, even the guy in the office who thinks he has it all figured out. I guess that makes me that guy. I HAVE IT FIGURED OUT!
Let’s take a look. I was sifting through information trying to find something that would truly give an overview of coaches’ decisions combined with offense, defense, and special team’s performance regardless of schedule strength, etc. I looked at a lot of stuff. Then it hit me like Thor’s hammer. It sounds simple until you dive in but whoever has more points than their opponent at the end of the game wins. But it’s how they get to those points that make it possible to determine who will be able to withstand all the things that are involved in the playoffs.
Those two things are Yards Per Point and Opponent Yards Per Point. Think about it. There is a big reason the team with the most “explosive” plays in a game win that game at such a high rate. It’s simply because running fewer plays in a drive reduces the amount of “drive killers’ in the form of penalties, sacks, etc… that can happen to stop a team from scoring.
For instance, if I only have to run seven plays on a drive to score rather than 14 plays, then I have a much higher chance of something bad NOT happening. The same thing would go on defense. Make a team run more plays to get each point and they will eventually screw it up with a drive-killing play. The average yard per point from the very best offense to the worst offense differs less than two yards. So we need to look and find the most efficient ones to get points and again, do the same thing on defense.
I looked back at the last five years and found something quite amazing. In that span, the four teams that appeared in the AFC and NFC Championship games had several things in common with very few exceptions. This sample put 20 teams in those games and 16 of the 20 simply had to finish in the top 10 on offense in fewest yards per point.
- In the 2018-19 season, all four teams finished in the top 10 in YPP and 3 of the 4 finished in the top 4. New England was the exception at No. 10 (but there may be a reason for that also).
- In the 2017-18 season, three of the four finished in the top 10 with the lone exception being Minnesota (they beat New Orleans on the Stefon Diggs only walk-off catch in the playoffs in NFL History. You remember the play.
- In the 2016-17 season, three of the four finished in the top 10 including Atlanta, Green Bay, and New England finishing 1, 2, and 3 respectively. The exception that year was Pittsburgh at 16.
- In 2015-16, three of the four finished in the top four and the exception to the top 10 was Denver at 14. (If you will remember, Denver had one of the best defenses in NFL history in many categories).
- In 2014-15, 3 teams in the Conference Championship games finished in the top three and Denver finished fifth.
Only one of those exceptions from the top 10 in Offense Yards Per Point won the Super Bowl and that was that Denver team in 2015-16 with the awesome defense.
So if you want to play it safe by percentage in picking the Super Bowl winner this year throw out Buffalo, Philly, Houston, and Seattle.
Now defense factors in once you get into the Final Four. I found that if you looked at Opponent Yards Per Point and added the rank of that to the offense, you could pick the winner of the Super Bowl. As a matter of fact, in four of the last five Super Bowls, if you had started with all playoff teams and added each team’s rankings together, the best-combined offense and defense in YPP won the Super Bowl. And guess who the only exception was? It was that Denver team that won the Super Bowl giving up only one TD in the game and scoring one TD with their defense!
Before going on to the winner this year, let’s look at why this is the category that determines it. Think about having to go fewer yards for points than the opponents and also making your opponent having to churn out more yards (run more plays) to do the same thing. That means the coach is making the right decisions on whether to kick field goals or pin the opposing team, when to go for it, and subsequently make it, and how to best use his kickoff and punt teams the best. Basically, it brings the knowledge of the coach about his team, his decisions, as well as all three phases of the game of football into one telling category.
So this year out of the 12 teams, we already tossed out four and of those, there is none with exceptional defenses. The one I think might surprise is Seattle with Russell Wilson but playcalling and clock management problems seem to pop up every week.
Here are the rankings below:
1. New England (off-5th def-1st) with a total of 6.
2. Kansas City (off-4th def-3rd) with a total of 7.
3. Baltimore (off-1st def – 9th) with a total of 10.
4. Minnesota (off-6th def-4th) with a total of 10.
5. Green Bay (off-10th def 5th) with a total of 15.
6. Tennessee (off-8th def 7th) with a total of 15.
7. New Orleans (off-3rd def-13th) with a total of 17.
9. San Francisco (off-2nd def-23rd) with a total of 25.
Again, when you combine the offense and defense YPP, it has correctly chosen the Super Bowl winner in four of the last five years.
Now I will say that Philadelphia in ’17-18 is the only team in that period to have to play in the first playoff weekend, which is bad new for the Patriots. New England has never made it to the Super Bowl after playing on Wild Card Weekend, but they also rarely play in those games anyway. Still, even as the offense hasn’t looked pretty, it’s been mostly effective all season.
But if you are looking to have the system be bucked for only the second time in six years, then the default would go to Kansas City, who might be worth a futures wager if you are into that. The problem there is Andy Reid and his second-half play calling and decision making. He is infamous for calling it differently in the playoffs and is responsible for two of the three largest NFL Playoff second-half meltdowns in NFL history.
If staying away from those, it would default to Baltimore, who appears to be everyone’s darling anyway.
My prediction is New England (which you can now get at 12-1 if you are a futures person) or Kansas City (which you can get at 6-1).
However you look at it, it should be an exciting finish to a fun season in the NFL.
