Doing power rankings before free agency and the draft is a fool’s errand. Luckily, the general consensus is I am a fool, and this fool is ready to feed the content beast.
These rankings reflect how rosters stand now with some liberty taken with possible free agents. Things should change dramatically in March.
NFL Power Rankings, 2024:
|Super Bowl LIX Odds
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NFL Team Rankings:
Super Bowl 59 odds in parentheses
1. San Francisco 49ers (+500)
Despite the heartbreaking Super Bowl 58 loss, the 49ers opened the offseason as the favorite for the Super Bowl 59 crown. It makes sense. Depending on how you view Chase Young, there are no vital players headed for free agency, and while they lack a ton of cap space, the 49ers currently have the 11th-best draft capital in the league according to Tankathon. This team is good, should stay intact, and has the draft picks to improve.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (+750)
The Chiefs have a more murky free agency situation than the team they beat for the Lombardi. Chris Jones, L’Jarius Snead, Donovan Smith, and Drue Tranquill among others are scheduled to hit the open market. The Chiefs do have some salary cap space and can make more by restructuring Patrick Mahomes’ contract, but they rank near the bottom of the league in available draft capital. They also have to find more weapons on offense. Travis Kelce and Mahomes magic cannot carry the passing attack forever.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (+1400)
The most important thing for the Bengals is Joe Burrow returning to full health, but they do have an interesting offseason ahead of them with notable players like Tee Higgins, D.J. Reader, Chidobe Awuzie, and Jonah Williams scheduled to hit free agency and a Ja’Marr Chase extension looming. The good news is they are currently fifth in available cap space, which should give them the ability to re-sign key players and go after reinforcements on defense. If Burrow’s health cooperates, it should be a quick bounceback for Cincy.
4. Baltimore Ravens (+850)
Baltimore’s loss in the AFC Championship Game might end up being more disappointing if they cannot keep their defense intact through free agency, a defense that has already lost several coaches including Mike Macdonald. Justin Madubuike and Patrick Queen are both free agents along with older veterans Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy. They also will need to add some more receiving options on offense. All of that needs to be accomplished with limited cap space and draft capital. Lamar Jackson papers a lot of cracks, but this will be an important offseason for the Ravens.
5. Detroit Lions (+1200)
The biggest offseason coup for the Lions already happened. OC Ben Johnson will return for another season, and DC Aaron Glenn will be back as well. Detroit does have some big contracts coming up, but their free agent group is manageable, and they currently rank eighth in available cap space. If they spend that money well on defense, they could be set for an even better season in 2024.
6. Buffalo Bills (+1200)
Buffalo righted the ship and earned yet another AFC East title, but they stumbled once again against the Chiefs in the playoffs. Now, they face one of the worst cap situations in the league (it will get a lot better once they restructure Josh Allen’s contract), have some important players scheduled to hit the market, and still need to find better complements for Stefon Diggs on offense.
7. Dallas Cowboys (+1600)
The Cowboys faltered in the playoffs? That’s wild. Dallas’ free agent list is not long, but there are several important players scheduled to hit the market including Tony Pollard, Tyler Biadasz, Stephon Gilmore, and Tyron Smith. The offensive line could use a revamp even if the free agents are re-signed, and there are holes on defense for a Cowboys organization that is currently 27th in available cap space.
8. Philadelphia Eagles (+1600)
The Eagles collapsed down the stretch, but it is important to remember this roster was at one point 10-1 with wins over the Cowboys, Chiefs, and Bills. Philly does have some key free agents on defense, but they are in a decent spot with the salary cap and have the 10th-most available draft capital. With the new coaching staff in place, they could be in position to bounce back quickly.
9. Houston Texans (+2500)
Your top two picks walking away with Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year would be amazing by itself, but the Texans also overachieved all expectations by making the playoffs and winning a game in C.J. Stroud’s first season. Now comes the important part. The Texans have a long list of free agents and limited draft capital, but they do have plenty of cap space. If they use that wisely, they could establish themselves as the class of the division.
10. Green Bay Packers (+2500)
Jordan Love hit, and that is all that really matters for the Packers moving forward. That said, they do not have a ton of free agents, are not in a terrible spot cap-wise despite being over the projected number right now, and have the fifth-most draft capital. Everything is set up for Green Bay to build on a promising first season in the post-Aaron Rodgers world.
11. Los Angeles Rams (+3000)
The Rams shocked the world by making the playoffs in 2023, well ahead of schedule in what looked like a mini rebuild. After hitting on several rookies last year, they finally have solid draft capital including their first-round pick, and they are in a decent spot with the cap. This team has the resources to build around their stars for one more run.
12. Miami Dolphins (+2000)
Miami once again struggled down the stretch in 2023, this time with Tua Tagovailoa healthy, and likely need to work out a long-term extension with the quarterback this offseason. They have a long list of free agents including Christian Wilkins and are already $51.9 million over the projected salary cap. The roster will be star-studded no matter what, but they might lose some talent this offseason.
13. New York Jets (+3000)
Aaron Rodgers appeared close to returning at the end of 2023, so he will almost certainly be ready for 2024 barring another injury. That is the good news. The bad news is the team still has a lot of needs, especially along the offensive line, and limited resources both with the cap and draft capital. The Jets have to be all-in with Rodgers, especially with the coach and GM feeling the heat. It will be interesting to see how they attack this offseason.
14. Chicago Bears (+4000)
The Bears have put themselves in position to build a Super Bowl contender. They have the third-most draft capital including the No. 1 overall pick, likely to be Caleb Williams, and they should get even more picks when they trade Justin Fields. They have the third-most cap space in the league, which should allow them to re-sign Jaylon Johnson and add talent. And they were quietly a talented team already in 2023, one that likely would have made the playoffs if Fields stayed healthy. They have to get this offseason right, but things are looking up in Chicago.
15. Cleveland Browns (+5000)
Cleveland’s run with Joe Flacco was fun to watch, but it is unlikely he will be back with the team in 2024. Instead, Deshaun Watson will try to live up to his contract for the first time since joining the Browns. Cleveland also has the worst draft capital in the league and is currently over the projected salary cap. The good news is the free agent list is light, so the talent around Watson should be good once again in 2024.
16. Indianapolis Colts (+5000)
The Colts inarguably overachieved in Shane Steichen’s first season, will get back Anthony Richardson from injury, and have the sixth-most cap space in the league. They do have some key free agents including Michael Pittman, but they also have the resources to add weapons for Richardson and help on defense. There is no reason this team cannot compete for the playoffs again in 2024.
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17. Jacksonville Jaguars (+3000)
Jacksonville entered the 2023 season looking like the clear class of the AFC South, but they leave with serious questions about their place in the division. They have major free agents in Calvin Ridley and Josh Allen, a looming extension for Trevor Lawrence, and a roster that has several holes. With the Colts and Texans surging, this is a vital offseason for the Jaguars.
18. Seattle Seahawks (+8000)
Seattle is not in a great spot with the cap, although they have some easy cuts to make, do not have a ton of draft capital, and the quarterback situation is questionable. That said, their defense has more talent than what they showed in 2023, and new coach Mike Macdonald’s track record suggests he will be able to get the most out of them. Assuming they can re-sign a couple of their priority free agents, this team can compete for a playoff spot in 2024 even without significant additions.
19. Los Angeles Chargers (+2500)
The Brandon Staley era is mercifully over, and Jim Harbaugh brings with him a solid track record of early success. Unfortunately, the Chargers have some work to do to get under the salary cap – currently $45.8 million over the projected number – and that work might include cutting key veterans like Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Khalil Mack, and Joey Bosa. The good news is they have the eighth most draft capital, but this will be a tough offseason for the new regime.
20. Minnesota Vikings (+4000)
The biggest question facing the Vikings is at quarterback with Kirk Cousins scheduled to hit free agency and coming off a serious injury. Danielle Hunter is also a free agent, and Justin Jefferson will almost certainly get an extension before the 2024 season. That’s a lot of work for a front office that has just average resources available to them this offseason and a roster with questions beyond quarterback and edge rusher.
21. New Orleans Saints (+6600)
The Saints have assumed their usual place at the bottom of the available salary cap table this offseason. They are currently a whopping $83.7 million over the projected cap, but we have seen this play before. They will work their way out. The bigger issue is figuring out how to improve the roster around Derek Carr, especially if “fixing” the cap situation involves cutting or trading key players like Alvin Kamara and Marshon Lattimore.
22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6600)
It looks like Baker Mayfield will be back, but the Bucs face several other important free agent decisions including Mike Evans, Antoine Winfield, Lavonte David, and Devin White. They do have some cap space available, but it is unlikely all of those players will return, and the Bucs do not have a ton of draft capital to replenish the roster. Despite an overachieving 2023, Tampa will likely enter the season with similar questions in 2024.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers (+8000)
The rumor is the Steelers are targeting Justin Fields to upgrade their quarterback room. They will move up this list if that happens. As it stands, though, they are currently in quarterback hell without the draft capital to make a run at one of the top rookies. Russell Wilson is much less interesting than Fields but would also be an upgrade on the current quarterback room in Pittsburgh.
24. Atlanta Falcons (+5000)
Lost in a disappointing season that ended with Arthur Smith being fired was an improved Falcons defense thanks to some good work during 2023 free agency. The Falcons have the cap space to once again make some moves this offseason, and they have the ninth-highest draft capital to help build the roster. Of course, none of that will matter if they cannot figure out the quarterback situation.
25. Las Vegas Raiders (+8000)
Las Vegas has another decision to make about Josh Jacobs and some other key free agents, but the most important offseason move will be at quarterback. Despite the solid finish to the season for the team overall, Aidan O’Connell is likely not the long-term answer, and their current No. 13 draft slot is likely not high enough to get one of the top quarterbacks in the draft. Do they try to nab a veteran to compete right away? If not, do they move on from Jacobs and trade Davante Adams? The Raiders quietly have decent talent throughout the roster, but none of it will matter if they cannot figure out the quarterback spot.
26. Arizona Cardinals (+8000)
The Cardinals were surprisingly competitive despite their 4-13 record – their expected win total based on point differential was 5.4 – and did so without Kyler Murray for half of the season. Now they head into the offseason with the most draft capital in the league and a solid amount of cap space. That is good because the roster needs a lot of help, especially if Marquise Brown is allowed to walk, but things are looking up in Arizona.
27. Denver Broncos (+10000)
It seems like Russell Wilson is headed out the door. No matter how that happens, the cap ramifications for the Broncos will be tough to swallow, especially with the team already $24 million over the expected 2024 cap. Denver will also need to find an answer at quarterback – assuming they do not intend to start Jarrett Stidham – and have several big contract decisions looming.
28. New England Patriots (+20000)
The Patriots are in a better spot than several of the teams down this low because they still have solid talent on the defensive side of the ball and the cap space to retain their free agents. The issue is the abject disaster on the other side, highlighted by the situation at quarterback. Will they address that need at No. 3 overall? That remains to be seen, but most of the offseason ammo has to be spent on the offense.
29. New York Giants (+15000)
The Giants find themselves in a tough spot with just average cap space, important free agents including their best offensive player in Saquon Barkley, a quarterback with major questions, and a roster that needs a lot of help. They do have the fourth-best draft capital including the No. 6 overall pick, but this will be a tricky offseason for Joe Schoen.
30. Washington Commanders (+15000)
This Washington roster is essentially a blank canvas for the new front office and coaching staff, and they have the paint to build a masterpiece with the most cap space available and the second-most draft capital including the No. 2 overall pick, which will almost certainly be a quarterback. Of course, spend those resources the wrong way, and things could look ugly for a long time. It is a pivotal offseason for the Commanders.
31. Tennessee Titans (+15000)
The Titans appear headed into a full rebuild. It would be a shock if Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill return, Will Levis did not look like the savior as a rookie, and there are holes throughout the roster. The good news is they have the second-most cap space, but Tennessee eating a rebuilding year and letting the young players give it a go probably makes the most sense.
32. Carolina Panthers (+25000)
The roster is bad. The rookie quarterback struggled. They rank third-worst in available draft capital despite finishing with the worst record in the league. And they don’t rank particularly highly in available cap space. Other than that, the Panthers are doing great. It could be a long rebuild in Carolina.