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When quarterbacks are barely taking reps and most coaches don’t care about winning, what can we take out of preseason games?
To answer that question, we must put ourselves in the position of the coaches.
What are they trying to accomplish?
First and foremost, they are trying to determine who will make the final 53-man roster and practice squad.
Second, and 1A, is to arrive in Week 1 with a healthy roster of starters.
Many key players are taking the preseason off, not just quarterbacks, because of the second point above.
Let’s jump to the offensive side of the ball. If the primary goal of preseason games is to evaluate the roster, odds are the coach is looking to watch what guys on their roster could do for them in the season.
So it’s important to put them in a similar position to what they’d be asked to do during the season.
Coaches will hide plays, sure. They’ll hide strategy, absolutely.
But try as they might to disguise their objectives, play-callers might have to tell on themselves with personnel groupings in the preseason.
While it’s far from the perfect tool, I’d argue that one of the most likely things to carry over from the preseason to the regular season is personnel groupings.
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Understanding NFL Personnel Groupings by name:
The personnel number system is used to identify the number of running backs and tight ends in the game.
- 10 Personnel = 1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WRs
- 11 Personnel = 1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs
- 12 Personnel = 1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs
- 13 Personnel = 1 RB, 3 TEs, 1 WR
- 21 Personnel = 2 RBs, 1 TE, 2 WRs
- 22 Personnel = 2 RBs, 2 TEs, 1 WR
I tracked all early down personnel groupings so far this preseason for each of the new play-callers and will compare them to what their team used last year.
This information is just another tool to better understand coaching philosophy, and it is useful for fantasy projections as well as for betting.
League-wide so far this preseason, here is the current personnel grouping distribution on early downs in the first half of games.
First Half Personnel Usage NFL Preseason:
- 11 personnel: 62% (66% last year)
- 12 personnel: 29% (23% last year)
- 21 personnel: 1% (6% last year)
- 13 personnel: 1% (2% last year)
- 22 personnel: 1% (1% last year)
- All others: 1%
Now, let’s look at every team to see what their tendencies have been so far this preseason, and then we will share notes on a team-by-team basis:
2024 First Half Early Down Personnel Usage by Team:
Let’s talk about a handful of teams whose preseason personnel groupings might give us a good understanding of in-season strategy, with a focus on those who changed dramatically since 2023.
Atlanta Falcons Personnel Usage, 2024
This one was EASY to predict and, as I mentioned in the Falcons chapter of my 2024 Football Preview:
“This offense will undergo what I predict to be the largest year-over-year shift in offensive personnel deployment we’ve seen in recent history”
That’s because Arthur Smith is in Pittsburgh (more on them later), and the Falcons' new OC is former Rams QBs coach Zac Robinson.
The Rams used an NFL-high 98.6% rate of 11 personnel on these first half early downs this preseason.
Well, the Falcons in 2023 used the lowest rate of 11 personnel of any team, rolling it out on only 17% of all plays including 14.5% of early down plays in the first half of games.
In 2024, the Falcons are up at 94% 11 personnel on early downs in the first half.
From less than 15% up to 94%, the “largest year-over-year shift in recent history” indeed!
In Atlanta, the WR3 will see the field at one of the highest rates in the NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers Personnel Usage, 2024
Moving from Matt Canada to Arthur Smith means far fewer 3WR sets in Pittsburgh.
They dropped from 69% usage in 2023 to 49% in 2024, which marks the #2 largest drop.
They have shifted to using the #1 highest rate of 13 personnel, #6 highest rate of 21 personnel, and #5 highest rate of 2RB sets.
Tennessee Titans Personnel Usage, 2024
In 2023, the Titans used 11 personnel on only 52% of early downs in the first half, #6 least often of any team.
But in the preseason, they have used 11 personnel at a 75% clip. That was the #7 most and the #2 largest year-over-year increase.
New coach Brian Callahan came from Cincinnati, which deploys 11 personnel at one of the highest rates in the NFL, so this isn’t a huge surprise.
It is a reminder to be aware of the usage that is likely to come from the WR3 this year in Tennessee.
New York Giants Personnel Usage, 2024
Interestingly, the Giants saw just as large a decline in usage of 11 personnel this preseason as the Pittsburgh Steelers, dropping 20.3% from 68.2% in 2023 down to 47.9% in 2024.
The Giants used the #27 highest rate of 11 personnel this preseason on first half early downs.
Instead, they used the #3 highest rate of 21 personnel (17%), up from just 2% last year.
And they ranked #4 in the usage of 2-RB sets.
New England Patriots Personnel Usage, 2024
The Patriots made one of the largest year-over-year shifts to more 3-WR sets.
After using 3-WRs on just 47% of first half early downs last year, they increased to the 11th-highest usage rate this year at 67%.
It was the #3 largest year-over-year increase in 11 personnel that we’ve seen.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Personnel Usage, 2024
Out goes Dave Canales. In comes Liam Coen. Up goes the Bucs' usage of 3+ WR sets.
In 2023 the Bucs used 3+ WRs on 69.5% of first half early downs.
In the 2024 preseason, that number shifted to 83.3%, the #5 largest increase.
And that was without run from Mike Evans.
Tampa looks poised to shift to using far more 11 personnel in 2024 under Coen.
Seattle Seahawks Personnel Usage, 2024
Last year’s Seahawks used 11 personnel on only 60% of first half early downs.
That number increased by 14%, up to 74% under new OC Ryan Grubb.
It was the #5 highest year-over-year increase. This theoretically bodes well for both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett.
Los Angeles Chargers Personnel Usage, 2024
There was no doubt the Chargers would go heavier with Greg Roman entering the picture, and that's exactly what happened.
Last year’s Chargers used 67% 11 personnel, which shifted to 59% this preseason.
That represented the #7 largest year-over-year decrease in 11 personnel.
Instead, their usage of 13 personnel jumped to the #4 highest rate, and 33% of snaps came with 2+ TEs on the field.
They made the #3 largest year-over-year increase in 13 personnel and the #7 largest increase in 21 personnel.
Las Vegas Raiders Personnel Usage, 2024
The Raiders took a massive step towards becoming a heavier offense under new OC Luke Getsy and first year full time HC Antonio Pierce in their first preseason game, but they backed off it after that.
I believe the Raiders will make that shift during the regular season, using far fewer 11 personnel snaps and focusing their WR targets narrowly on Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers.
But they clearly wanted to evaluate the depth at the WR position.
With Brock Bowers not playing much in the preseason, they finished at a 63% rate of 11 personnel, nearly identical to 2023.
