With last week’s loss to the Ravens, J.J. McCarthy surpassed 100 attempts and is now qualified to be ranked among his peers to examine his season performance.
And the results are troubling to say the least.
Out of 37 qualifying quarterbacks, McCarthy ranks dead last in completion rate at just 53.7%.
47% of McCarthy’s dropbacks are lasting 3+ seconds, which ranks #1 in the NFL.
But while a lot of the other numbers I’m about to discuss may seem surprising, this was exactly how this offense worked with Sam Darnold.
As mentioned in my preview book, Darnold had the #3 highest average time to throw (3.0 seconds).
Nearly 50% of Darnold’s dropbacks lasted 3+ seconds.
The NFL average was 32%.
McCarthy’s time to throw is likewise high.
It is #2 in the NFL at 3.1 seconds.
However, despite holding the ball so long on these first down attempts, Darnold averaged just 7.9 air yards per attempt, which ranked just #16.
McCarthy is averaging 10.0 air yards, which ranks #1.
As a result of an overall more manageable target depth, Darnold’s accuracy ranked #4 out of 46 quarterbacks, and his completion rate ranked #8 out of 46.
McCarthy’s accuracy ranks #36 out of 37 QBs, and his completion rate, as mentioned earlier, ranks dead last, #37 of 37 QBs.
This staff must figure out a way to get McCarthy’s completion rate to improve.
It’s impossible to run an effective offense when your QB completes so few passes.
Before anything else happens, before the defense or the run game, the Vikings need to figure out how to get McCarthy to complete passes at a much higher rate.
While you might think the answer is just to reduce the #1 highest target depth, that’s not the final solution.
On passes thrown fewer than five yards downfield, McCarthy ranks dead last in completion rate, #37 of 37.
He also ranks #36 in completion rate and #33 in EPA per attempt.
On passes thrown fewer than two yards downfield, McCarthy still ranks dead last in completion rate.
With the rest of the NFC North having 6-3 records or better, the 4-5 Vikings are the odd man out both in the division and the playoff hunt, which has them 10th in the NFC.
And the toughest part is, after playing an easier-than-average schedule to this point in the season, the Vikings will play the NFL’s #1 toughest schedule the rest of the season.
Fortunately, they have a game against the Bears' #29 ranked pass defense on deck.
But after that, they’ll play back-to-back games against the top-10 pass defenses of the Packers and Seahawks, and both are on the road.
If Minnesota wants to pull off a comeback on the season and sneak into the playoffs, it has to start this week against Chicago.
Kevin O'Connell must figure out a strategy to improve McCarthy’s completion rate.
