It’s not the drops.
It’s Trevor Lawrence.
In Week 10, Lawrence had the worst fourth quarter of any quarterback who had a 10-point halftime lead in the last five years.
He had 6 dropbacks in the fourth quarter and threw only 1 pass, which was incomplete.
He took 3 sacks for a total of -19 yards, and his team went punt, punt, fumble in the fourth quarter while the Texans scored 21 unanswered points.
He averaged -1.52 EPA per dropback, which was the worst out of 366 qualifying QBs.
For a few weeks to start the season, you could blame drops.
Jags fans, you need to get over that now.
It’s no longer the drops.
In fact, if you remove all drops this season, Lawrence ranks:
#25 in accuracy
#27 in EPA per attempt
#29 in completion rate
#30 in TD to INT ratio
#34 in TD rate
The Jaguars' passing attack currently ranks #30.
They rank #26 in EPA, #27 in success rate, #27 in yards per attempt, and #28 inside the red zone.
Everything that we thought could get fixed with Liam Coen has not worked as planned.
Despite lowering his early down target depth to just 7.6 (#15) from 9.1 last year (#3), Lawrence’s early down efficiency has regressed.
2024:
#13 in EPA/attempt (+0.10 EPA/att)
#20 in success rate (45%)
#6 in Y/A (8.0)
#27 in completion rate (66%)
2025:
#29 in EPA/attempt (-0.05)
#25 in success rate (42%)
#29 in Y/A (6.1)
#30 in completion rate (62%)
Again, this is NOT drops.
His completion rate is #26 even when you remove drops, worse than last year, despite averaging nearly 2 air yards fewer per target.
