Yesterday, only 19% of Denver’s early down plays were successful.
That ranked dead last among all teams.
Worse than the Texans…Titans…Falcons…Jets.
A whopping 72% of their first downs led to third downs.
Unfortunately for Sean Payton’s offense, this is par for the course in 2025.
Denver currently ranks dead last in the NFL in early down success this season.
Just 32% of their early down plays are successful.
On early downs, they average -0.11 EPA per play (#28), and only 19.7% of their plays gain another first down (#29).
That seems nearly impossible given the fact that their offensive line ranks #1 in pass block win rate and #10 in run block win rate, via ESPN.
To have a top-10 offensive line, whether running or passing, but ranking dead last in early down efficiency means something is off badly.
But it could get fixed.
In their game against the Chargers on Sunday, Bo Nix averaged -0.41 EPA per attempt on early downs.
Only Jake Browning was worse.
On early downs, Nix averaged just a 50% completion rate despite throwing nearly 42% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage.
On early downs this year, 70% of Nix’s pass attempts are within five yards of the line of scrimmage, the #2 highest rate in the NFL.
That’s even higher than Aaron Rodgers. Only Tyrod Taylor is higher.
Nix is averaging just 5.2 air yards per attempt on early downs, #33 in the NFL.
But on these short air yards early down passes, Nix is averaging just 3.8 yards per attempt (#32) and a 34% success rate (#34).
The early down run game, particularly to start games, hasn’t been good either.
In the first half this season on early downs, Broncos running backs rank:
#31 in success rate at 18%
#28 in yards per carry at 3.0
#26 in EPA at -0.26 per run
A whopping 36% of these runs have gone for 1 or fewer yards (#8 highest rate), and only 18% have gained 5+ yards (#31).
Payton must figure this out.
Denver has faced two bottom-10 defenses this year (Titans rank #28, Colts rank #23) and one strong defense (Chargers).
Next up, Denver will play the Bengals defense, which ranks #20 including #25 on early downs.
The focus all week must be on early downs to avoid third downs, and they have a tailor-made opponent to look much better on early downs next Monday.
They need to correct these issues, and it can start this week.
