Teams winning the turnover battle this year are 37-5-1 (88%).
That’s the best mark through Week 4 since at least 2000.
We’ve actually seen only 87 interceptions so far this season, which is the second-lowest total since 2000.
The only year lower was 2024 with 86.
The INT rate is also the third lowest since 2000.
So, if turnovers are dictating wins more than they ever have before, but it’s harder to record interceptions, teams that want an edge need to find it in other ways.
And that’s where getting nosy around the ball and punching it out comes into play.
This is something that the Jaguars began to emphasize, and it has paid dividends.
They are the ONLY team to win the turnover battle in all four games this year.
They have 4 opponent fumble recoveries, second most to the Steelers.
Their net turnover EPA is #2 in the NFL at 31 expected points.
And in their last two games, they have won by 7 and 5 points while being +2 and +4 in turnovers and scoring 7 and 17 points off turnovers.
Last week, we talked about the Steelers voodoo, and it continued over in Ireland.
But the Jaguars are trying to create their own brand in Florida.
Teams with a positive fumbles lost differential are 21-2-1 on the season if they don’t lose the turnover battle on interceptions.
Emphasizing forcing fumbles is certainly not a losing strategy.
Nine teams have forced at least 5 fumbles this year, and only one of them has a losing record (Raiders).
Six of nine are either 4-0 or 3-1.
