This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
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When running the ball, the Patriots do so from 2-RB sets 44% of snaps, which ranked #4 in the NFL this year.
They use two running backs to run way more than 3+ WRs (33%) or 2+ TEs (37%).
In the playoffs, this has launched skyward.
They are using 2-RB sets to run the ball on 60% of snaps, nearly the same as the 49ers.
Even in the first half of playoff games, when they’re not simply looking to run out the clock, New England used:
49% 2 RBs to run (#3 of 14)
31% 3 WRs to run (#12 of 14)
The league average deployment to run the ball with RBs is:
42% 3+ WRs
44% 2+ TEs
16% 2 RBs
But the Patriots are:
29% 3+ WRs
36% 2+ TEs
43% 2 RBs
Naturally, the Seahawks have a lot of experience defending the 49ers’ 2-RB personnel deployment considering they play them at least twice a year.
And that’s bad news for the Patriots rushing attack.
This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
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Look at the Seahawks RB run defense ranks based on offensive personnel:
Vs. 3+ WRs:
#6 EPA/attempt (-0.14)
#4 success rate (33%)
#4 YPC (4.0)
Vs. 2 RBs:
#1 EPA/attempt (-0.29)
#10 success rate (37%)
#6 YPC (3.3)
While the Patriots prefer to run out of their 2-RB sets, they also pass out of them often.
They have the #4 most dropbacks in the NFL this season from 2-RB sets.
But, because the Seahawks are not matching your 2-RB set with base, like most of the rest of the NFL, Seattle is also able to defend passes out of 2-RB sets extremely well.
Vs. 2-RB dropbacks, the Seahawks defense ranks:
#1 in EPA (-0.83)
#4 in success rate (35%)
#3 in Y/A (4.9)
These numbers are substantially better than 3-WR sets, where Seattle allows -0.08 EPA per attempt, a 37% success rate, and 5.8 Y/A.
Seattle’s ranks top 11 in all three of those metrics against 3-WR set passes, including #1 in Y/A (5.8), so it’s not that they are “bad” against 3-WR sets.
It’s just that the dropbacks from 2-RB sets will be much less efficient when the Patriots use them, which is at a much higher rate than most teams.
This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!
