This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
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In the playoffs, the Patriots have been downright nasty with aggression led by a high blitz rate.
This wasn’t the way it was for the Patriots all season.
On the season, the Patriots’ blitz rate was down at 27.4%, which ranked #14 in the NFL.
And that was primarily because, over the first 8 weeks of the season, the Patriots’ blitz rate was down at 22.7%, which ranked #23.
However, from Week 9 to the end of the season, the Patriots’ blitz rate increased to 32.1%, #5 highest in the NFL.
In the playoffs, however, it’s been on an entirely different level:
- 41.3% blitz rate (#1)
- 50.0% pressure rate (#1)
- 22.3% hit rate (#1)
The Patriots have been dialing up heat left and right, even on early downs.
On early down dropbacks this postseason, their 42.4% blitz rate is #2, and their 48.2% early down pressure rate is, by far, #1 in the NFL.
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How Sam Darnold handles the blitz and pressure that New England is looking to bring surely will go a long way to determining the outcome of this game, particularly if the Seahawks aren’t able to run the ball as efficiently as they would like.
The Seahawks have not played very many defenses this year that blitz at an above average rate.
The NFL average blitz rate is 26%, and the Seahawks played only 5 games out of 19 total against teams that blitzed at a 27% rate or higher for the season:
#1 Vikings (48%)
#2 Falcons (35%)
#5 Bucs (31%)
#7 Steelers (30%)
#12 Colts (28%)
Minnesota, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and Indianapolis all blitzed Darnold at above average rates, while the Bucs went the opposite direction and blitzed at below average rates (24%).
Darnold in those 5 games when blitzed:
36 of 60 (60%), 8.1 Y/A, 5:4 TD:INT, -0.01 EPA/attempt, 52% success, 44% pressure rate, 9% sack rate
Darnold in those 5 games when the defenses decided not to blitz:
70 of 99 (71%), 8.1 Y/A, 4:0 TD:INT, +0.27 EPA/attempt, 52% success, 25% pressure rate, 3% sack rate
Patriots de facto DC Zak Kuhr recently stated his blitz rates are on a matchup basis. As a result, he is trying not to tip his hand as to how he will approach this game with his blitz rate.
Will it be #1 of all teams like it’s been thus far in the postseason? Or will it be #23, as it was the first 8 weeks of the season?
My guess is he will try to get pressure with four, and if that doesn’t work, he’ll go right back to blitzing in order to get pressure on Darnold.
After all, Sam Darnold has some of the largest splits in the NFL with vs. without pressure of any quarterback.
Out of 36 qualifying QBs with 200+ attempts this year, Darnold’s ranks…
When kept clean:
#7 EPA per attempt (+0.32)
#1 Y/A (9.4)
#8 completion rate (75%)
#3 explosive gain rate 15+ yds (21%)
#15 INT rate (1.8%)
But when pressured:
#23 EPA per attempt (-0.40)
#12 Y/A (6.5)
#10 completion rate (52%)
#18 explosive gain rate 15+ yds (14%)
#31 INT rate (5.6%)
So, pressuring Darnold will be a priority for the Patriots. Will they need to blitz in order to record that pressure?
If the Patriots decide they need to blitz, this is what Darnold has done against the blitz the entire season (not just against top blitz rate teams as split out above).
When blitzed:
#16 EPA per attempt (+0.08)
#5 Y/A (8.9)
#23 completion rate (62%)
#9 explosive gain rate 15+ yds (20%)
#34 INT rate (4.8%)
When not blitzed:
#11 EPA per attempt (+0.07)
#3 Y/A (8.3)
#6 completion rate (70%)
#7 explosive gain rate 15+ yds (19%)
#21 INT rate (2.1%)
Darnold is worse when blitzed in completion rate and has a much higher interception rate. Most of the other stats are similar.
The focus is recording pressure, where the splits are far more dramatic.
This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!
