This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!
Patriots Man Coverage Tendencies
In the postseason, the Patriots have played:
19% man coverage on first downs
30% man coverage on second downs
45% man coverage on third/fourth downs
This virtually mirrors what they did in the regular season:
#10 in rate of man on first down
#7 in rate of man on second down
#10 in rate of man on third/fourth downs
Overall, the Patriots rank #9 in rate of man coverage (28%) on all snaps this year.
Two things to realize:
First, we’re talking less than 30% of all passes, so while we can technically say “top 10,” the vast majority of passes they’re still playing zone.
Second, teams tend to adjust to their opponent.
The Patriots averaged 28% man on all snaps and 29% man on all dropbacks, but they had massive swings.
57% against the Bills in Week 15 and 47% against the Bills in Week 5, but as little as 24% against the Chargers in the Wild Card Round and as low as 10-14% in multiple games against teams like the Dolphins, Titans, and Browns.
Let’s discuss each of these scenarios.
This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:
- 1.25+ Unit Plays: 10-0 (100%) YTD
- Best Bet for the Super Bowl: 16-3 (84%) YTD
- All Elevated Props: 37-12 (76%) YTD
- All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays
A $100 bettor has won $13,069 following Warren's betting recommendations this season. Join for $50 off HERE.
Patriots' Opponent-Specific Coverage Adjustments
While the Patriots average man coverage on 29% of pass dropbacks, they change massively from game to game.
High Man Coverage Games
Three games featured over 40% man coverage on pass dropbacks:
57% vs. the Bills Week 15
48% vs. the Jets Week 11
47% vs. the Bills Week 5
A commonality in these three games is an extremely mobile QB: Josh Allen twice and Justin Fields.
Low Man Coverage Games
Four games featured less than 20% man coverage on pass dropbacks:
11% vs. the Dolphins Week 2
13% vs. the Titans Week 7
14% vs. the Browns Week 8
17% vs. the Dolphins Week 18
One commonality in these games was QBs with low scramble rates: Tua Tagovailoa, Dillon Gabriel, Cam Ward, and Quinn Ewers.
The Patriots won three of four by comfortable margins, allowing them to play more zone late in the game.
But even if you look at only the first half of the game, three of the five lowest rates of man coverage in any game this year came in those matchups.
Why the Patriots Adjust Coverage Rates by Opponent
Another game that started out very similarly in the first half was the Week 9 game against the Falcons and Michael Penix Jr, who likewise has a very low scramble rate.
These QBs’ scramble rates ranked:
#39 – Tua Tagovailoa
#36 – Quinn Ewers
#34 – Cam Ward
#29 – Michael Penix Jr
#26 – Dillon Gabriel
The Patriots played far more zone this year against this quarterback archetype than against mobile QBs.
Where does Sam Darnold slot in?
Darnold’s 2.7% scramble rate ranks #38 in the NFL, just one spot above Tua’s 2.6%.
While obviously the Patriots could come up with any scheme, and Mike Vrabel has two weeks to prepare for this game, I am going to cut against the grain here.
Virtually everyone is discussing Christian Gonzalez vs. Jaxon Smith–Njigba and how Gonzalez can do manned up against JSN.
And they’re discussing the high rates of man coverage the Patriots play.
But I’m going to handicap this game based on my personal expectation that the Patriots play less man coverage than their #9 ranking on the season indicates.
This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report, a 50+ page analysis of Patriots vs. Seahawks that looks at the big game from every angle. Warren breaks down all the key matchups to give you an edge betting sides, totals, and props. The full report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for 50% off using promo code SB60
Click here to learn more about our Super Bowl Package!
