Super Bowl 60: The Patriots Have a TreVeyon Henderson Problem

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From Week 1 to Week 13, before the Patriots’ bye, when TreVeyon Henderson was on the field, the Patriots were 62% pass.

That was nearly the exact same as Rhamondre Stevenson (65% pass).

But coming out of that bye, the Patriots made an adjustment.

Their confidence level in Henderson with regards to pass protection had eroded.

As a result, the Patriots shifted their offense.

For the rest of the regular season:

Henderson on the field? 39% pass, 61% run

Henderson off the field? 67% pass, 33% run

Stevenson on the field? 72% pass, 28% run

This continued into the playoffs…with one exception.

During the game against the Texans, Stevenson was poked in the eye and missed a large chunk of the game.

Thus, Stevenson had to be on the field during some pass plays.

As a result, the offense has become slightly more predictable.

And it’s become decidedly worse with Henderson on the field.

If we remove the 2 blowouts against the Jets and Dolphins to close the regular season, focusing only on Week 15 against the Bills, Week 16 against the Ravens, and all 3 playoff games:

Henderson ON the field: -0.14 EPA/play, 32.3% success rate, 4.3 yards/play
Henderson OFF the field: +0.04 EPA/play, 38.9% success rate, 5.8 yards/play

This is an excerpt from Warren Sharp's Super Bowl 60 Report. The full 50+ page report is available to subscribers, and you can get our Super Bowl Package for $50 off using promo code SB60

Plus: You'll get ALL of Warren Sharp's Super Bowl Betting Recommendations:

1.25+ Unit Plays: 10-0 (100%) YTD
Best Bet for the Super Bowl: 16-3 (84%) YTD
All Elevated Props: 37-12 (76%) YTD
All Sides & Totals: 27-11 (71%) lifetime on Super Bowl plays

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Let’s add some context to these numbers.

If these were full season ranks:

EPA/play: #8 with Henderson OFF (+0.04), #29 with Henderson ON (-0.14)
Yards/play: #7 with Henderson OFF (5.8), #32 with Henderson ON (4.3)
Success: #26 with Henderson OFF (38.9%), #32 with Henderson ON (32.3%)

In other words, despite playing multiple elite defenses (Texans, Broncos, Chargers) in that span as well as the Ravens and Bills, the Patriots actually recorded top-10 offensive performances with Henderson off the field in both EPA per play and yards per play.

But they became the NFL’s worst offense, #32, in yards per play and success rate with Henderson on the field, and #29 in EPA per play.

That’s astonishing!

The numbers were bad with Henderson on, but it wasn’t just a run or pass thing.

During that span:

Rushing with Henderson ON: -0.06 EPA/rush, 31% success rate, 27% early down success, 4.9 YPC
Rushing with Henderson OFF: +0.01 EPA/rush, 37% success rate, 30% early down success, 4.5 YPC
Passing with Henderson ON: -0.31 EPA/attempt, 34% success rate, 6.1 Y/A
Passing with Henderson OFF: -0.03 EPA/attempt, 39% success rate, 7.7 Y/A

We’re talking night-and-day different efficiencies in virtually every stat, rushing or passing.

The only outlier was YPC, where Henderson had 14 rushes against the Bills for 3.3 YPC but also broke 65-yard and 52-yard runs to skew the overall YPC results.

Going by week through the playoffs:

AFC Championship: