If you combined the 2023 and 2024 seasons, 60.2% of all Trevor Lawrence‘s attempts were thrown in 2.5 seconds or less.
That is the #3 highest rate among 36 qualified passers who attempted at least 400 passes.
Yet, on these quick throws, Lawrence ranked just #26 out of 36 quarterbacks in completion rate.
In fact, he ranked #34 of 36 QBs in completion rate over expected, ahead of only Cooper Rush and Anthony Richardson.
When he held the ball longer than 2.5 seconds, as he did on 40% of his dropbacks, he ranked #32 of 36 QBs in CPOE.
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Despite throwing the ball extremely fast, Lawrence still averaged 9.4 air yards per attempt in 2024.
That was the #2 deepest in the NFL out of 43 QBs.
Those two stats don’t really go together.
The #3 fastest time to throw, but the #2 deepest target depth.
It’s no surprise, then, that Lawrence ranked #4 worst in completion percentage over expected.
One of the first things that new Jaguars coach Liam Coen did to help Baker Mayfield last year was to lower his target depth.
Mayfield reduced his target depth from 7.8 air yards in 2023 to 6.6 in 2024.
That target depth ranked #32 in the NFL
With the shorter target depth, he completed 73% of passes instead of 65%.
The shorter passes allowed slightly more yards after the catch, making life easier on Lawrence.
The 2025 preseason makes me feel GREAT about everything Coen will bring to help Lawrence.
We saw exactly what I expected: lower target depth and higher completion rate.
In the preseason, Lawrence had 17 dropbacks and averaged just 5.6 air yards per attempt.
5.6 air yards per attempt would have ranked SHORTEST of 43 qualifying QBs last season,
That is way down from the 9.4 air yards that Lawrence averaged last year.
With that lower target depth, Lawrence completed 82% of his passes this preseason, the #2 best of 87 qualifying QBs.
Naturally, no QB last year completed anything close to 82% of their passes.
But this is exactly what makes things so exciting for Lawrence with Coen this year.
I’m excited to see how he looks this season compared to years past.
