The Washington Commanders made the NFC Championship last season with a rookie quarterback, and nobody saw it coming.
But we should have.
This wasn’t a lucky run.
It wasn’t a fluke.
It was one of the most radical, fast-paced transformations we’ve seen in modern NFL history — and the numbers prove it.
Let’s start with what changed.
Out: Dan Snyder, Ron Rivera, Eric Bieniemy, Sam Howell
In: Josh Harris, Dan Quinn, Adam Peters, Kliff Kingsbury, Jayden Daniels
Add in $178 million in free agent spending — fifth most in the league — and a soft projected schedule, and the signs were screaming improvement.
Last summer, they were favored in three games.
This year, it’s 12.
Last year’s win total was 6.5. They cashed it by Week 9 — faster than any team in the NFL.
Washington went 12–5.
Their only loss by more than one score came in Week 1, on the road, with a rookie quarterback facing Todd Bowles.
After that, every loss was by 8 points or fewer.
They didn’t blow teams out. They just beat them.
Eight wins by 6 points or fewer.
They went 8–4 in one-score games, 4–1 in field goal finishes.
And they did it all with the NFL’s easiest schedule.
But here’s where it gets crazy.
Washington was the most efficient fourth down team in modern NFL history.
Not this season. Not the last five years. Since at least 2000.
They converted 87% of their fourth down attempts — 20 out of 23.
No other team in the last 24 years with 10 or more attempts has even touched that number.
And on fourth-and-short, they were even better — 88% conversion rate, the highest we’ve ever seen.
They didn’t even use quarterback sneaks. Not once.
Despite the sneak being the most effective play in football — converting at over 82% on fourth-and-short — Washington went 13 for 15 running the ball without a single sneak.
Add in 7 completions on eight fourth down pass attempts.
That’s 88%, better than every team since 2007 except for two: the 2002 Colts and 2007 Cardinals.
Their QBs? Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner.
Jayden Daniels, as a rookie, produced fourth down numbers only seen by Hall of Famers.
The Commanders’ 23 fourth down plays generated 54.55 Expected Points Added — more than the entire 2024 Kansas City Chiefs offense across all 1,091 of their plays.
More fourth down EPA than every single play by 23 other NFL offenses.
This wasn’t about aggressiveness.
In fact, the Commanders went for it more often in 2023, 2022, and 2021.
The difference? Efficiency.
Daniels and Kingsbury executed with surgical precision.
Daniels’ edge goes beyond talent.
He trains with Cognilize VR, simulating defensive reads at up to 20x game speed, drilling timing, pre-snap movement, and visual processing in simulated stadiums before he ever steps on the field.
The kid prepares like no rookie I’ve ever seen.
But here’s the concern for 2025.
Fourth down success is rarely sustainable.
Washington doesn’t have a repeatable cheat code like the Eagles’ tush push.
And the schedule won’t be so friendly this time around.
Last year, they faced benched Daniel Jones twice, bad Deshaun Watson, backup Cooper Rush, rookie Caleb Williams, backups Jake Haener, Spencer Rattler, Kenny Pickett, Michael Penix Jr, and Trey Lance.
That won’t happen again.
The defense still underwhelmed despite that cupcake stretch.
They finished 25th in overall efficiency, 31st against the run, and 22nd in points allowed per drive — all while being the sixth healthiest unit in the league.
In response, they added Javon Kinlaw, Jonathan Jones, Will Harris, and drafted CB Trey Amos.
Zach Ertz also became a surprise weapon.
Signed for just $3 million, he finished second on the team in targets, catches, yards, and touchdowns. More than he had in 2022 and 2023 combined. He’s back again in 2025.
Offensively, they added Deebo Samuel, Laremy Tunsil, and first-round tackle Josh Conerly. The foundation is here.
But the road will be rougher.
Washington has the third-worst net rest edge in the NFL.
They play five opponents with over a week of prep. Three are coming off a bye. They play two short-week road games and four games with less rest than their opponent.
Of their nine toughest games by projected opponent win total, six are on the road.
There is one break: back-to-back rest edges to close the season — hosting Dallas on Christmas Day and then the Eagles in Week 18.
Daniels is the key to making this work. And the best thing Washington did this offseason was keep Kingsbury in place.
Continuity is rare for young QBs. Too often, an offensive coordinator has success and gets poached, leaving the quarterback to restart with a new system.
Daniels doesn’t need a reset. He needs rhythm.
And in 2024, that rhythm led to the Commanders outscoring opponents by 42 points in first quarters, 92 by halftime, and 104 through three quarters — all top six in the league.
In the fourth? Daniels ranked second in the NFL in EPA per attempt.
He started hot and closed cold-blooded.
If the offense looks anything like it did last year, Washington should be handing Kingsbury a blank check.
The Commanders were the biggest surprise of 2024.
Now we get to find out if it was lightning in a bottle — or the start of something real.
They shocked the league once.
Now they have to prove they can sustain it.
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