The Packers lost to the Panthers on Sunday, which was only the second-worst loss of the day for Green Bay.
The worst loss, as it relates to the season in general, was Tucker Kraft with a torn ACL.
Kraft averaged 10.8 yards after the catch per reception, which made him an extremely valuable player.
His YAC/reception ranked #1 among all TEs.
This allowed him to be an extremely high catch rate target for Jordan Love, as his air yards per target was just 4.6.
That ranked #37 out of 47 qualifying TEs.
And that low target rate allowed for a 73% completion rate.
He also still was capable in the deeper pass game, catching 80% of his targets 10+ yards downfield (#6 of 47 TEs).
He finished the season (through Week 9) among all TEs ranking:
#1 in YAC/reception at 10.8
#1 in total YAC at 344 yards
#2 in yards/reception at 15.3
#3 in total receiving yards
He also gave the Packers the ability to operate out of heavier personnel sets, which they prefer.
Green Bay used 3+ WRs at the #21 rate (56%) and 2+ TEs at the #8 rate (41%).
Where this might hurt the Packers most is in first down efficiency.
On the season, look at the splits on first down with and without Kraft on the field:
With Kraft (188 plays):
#4 EPA/play (+0.10)
#5 Yards/play (6.2)
#4 Success rate (46%)
#3 EPA/pass (+0.31)
#19 EPA/rush (-0.07)
Without Kraft (31 plays):
#32 EPA/play (-0.18)
#32 Yards/play (3.8)
#24 Success Rate (39%)
#32 EPA/pass (-0.16)
#31 EPA/rush (-0.20)
Naturally, we’re talking half a season sample, so it’s not an extremely large sample by any means.
Still, directionally it’s clear, the Packers not only will be at a huge loss with the absence of Kraft, but one that is likely to be felt on the very first play of each series.
How the Packers adjust to stay efficient on first down despite the loss of Kraft is one of the first places to look when determining if Green Bay is capable of advancing deep in the playoffs without him.
