With the 2025 projections going live on the site, I wanted to provide a primer on how to use them before we begin drafting teams this summer.
You can find my projections, 2025 fantasy rankings, and much more in our 2025 Sharp Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
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Contents
What Are Fantasy Football Projections?
Projections are simple.
My season-long rankings and projections focus on a player's probable outcomes based on top-down production on a play basis and projected game script.
Then, player opportunity production is based on that team's volume.
We can tweak volume and efficiency for various outcomes per player, but that is the simplest explanation of how the projection sauce is made.
One thing to remember when going into projections is not to treat them as gospel.
Projections operate more like checks and balances since we inherently know they will not be perfect.
The modeling operates under probability and median outcomes based on previous player performance and team situations.
Over the summer, we will receive a lot of commentary from team beat reporters who will calculate stats based on expected player performance.
The initial top-down takeaway with projections is that they should be used as a guide to circle potential underpriced and overpriced players in the market.
Players Who Do Not Project Well in Fantasy Football: Rookies
While it is imperative not to handle projections as gospel, it is also imperative to understand that certain players and situations will rarely ever project well.
The first group is rookies, since there is no actual player usage or performance history from which to draw.
We can use historic baselines based on draft capital to diagnose a rough outline for the potential opportunity out of the box, but that is a roughshod projection at best.
This is often why rookies are some of the better values in fantasy drafts.
Fantasy gamers love the upside, but they also love comfort.
They love to know what they are buying.
Rookies also rarely are wire-to-wire starting assets over their inaugural seasons.
Top-down projections fail to capture rookies' potential when they run into pockets of starting production, which we often see once we get into the season.
These first-year players earn more playing time, and injuries impact depth charts.
2024 was another season in which rookies greatly impacted the fantasy playoffs and championship runs.
Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers, and Brock Bowers put together strong rookie seasons above their ADP expectations.
On top of those players, Brian Thomas Jr, Ladd McConkey, Bucky Irving, and Xavier Worthy were major players in that regard, and they closed the year in a higher production tier than their full-season output suggested.
While the 2025 rookies outside of Ashton Jeanty may not show up as high-impact players in the top-down projections, you should not overly stock those totals and consider the incoming class for its upside outcomes.
Jeanty is the only rookie tracking to be priced near their potential ceiling outcome out of the blocks.
This season, we have a handful of rookies in nebulous situations who will not project amazingly:
- Colston Loveland
- Tyler Warren
- Matthew Golden
- Emeka Egbuka
- Luther Burden
- Jayden Higgins
Those are all great examples of players selected in the top 40 of the draft who landed in spots that appear to be congested immediately.
There is a finite number of touches within an offense in a given season.
Still, the distribution of those touches can be fluid and impacted throughout the season through player performance and injuries.
Coinciding with that thought, projections that can be impacted by rookies reaching a higher outcome must be considered in various outcomes.
What happens to Jaylen Warren if Kaleb Johnson hits?
The same can be considered for:
- Najee Harris
- D.J. Moore
- Rome Odunze
- Jayden Reed
- Adam Thielen
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Tyrone Tracy
That is just a handful of names on a longer list of players with a broader range of outcomes based on the potential success (or lack thereof) of rookies on their rosters.
Players Who Do Not Project Well in Fantasy Football: Ambiguous Depth Charts
This leads us to the next area where projections will not shine enough light: the ambiguous depth charts.
Muddy situations will never project well, and rankings and ADP for the players in those ambiguous depth charts reflect as much.
This is also why some of the best yearly values come from these situations.
With that in mind, I want to walk through a few spots that stand out from early projections that I do not care as much about regarding the lackluster projection.
49ers WRs Fantasy Football Projections, 2025
Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle have stable usage patterns, but San Francisco's wide receiver room is the first spot that stands out.
This unit was in constant motion last season due to injuries.
Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, and Ricky Pearsall (along with McCaffrey and Kittle) missed multiple games last season.
In addition, the 49ers traded away Samuel this offseason, and Aiyuk is returning from a serious knee injury.
Putting that all together, Jennings (WR36), Pearsall (WR41), and Aiyuk (WR48) all have opening ADPs priced below the ceiling outcomes for each player.
I want exposure to all of them, but especially Aiyuk.
Aiyuk is one of those players I care more about the upside, especially his ceiling potential for the rest of the season (hopefully the fantasy playoffs), than any limitations he could face early on.
We can adjust if his price climbs based on positive news over the summer, but this is a situation where I am not overly factoring in a flatter distribution of opportunity among this group on the surface.
Kansas City Passing Game Fantasy Football Projections, 2025
The Chiefs' receiver corps has a similar premise to the group above, but slightly altered because Rashee Rice is projecting well.
Rice, Xavier Worthy, and Marquise Brown played zero snaps together last season because of how the season played out, which also bleeds over to Travis Kelce.
Because Rice is projecting well, the other pass catchers are not.
Before his injury, Rice was targeted on 33% of his routes (third in the NFL).
Even bringing down those target rates, the upside outcome for the other pass catchers is not being priced in for anyone other than Worthy, who is WR22 in current drafts.
Worthy took off down the stretch with added usage near the line of scrimmage, insulating his floor.
Over the final seven games of the season, Worthy led the team in receptions (39), receiving yards (392), and touchdowns (3).
He had 55 targets in those games (20.8%), just two fewer than Travis Kelce.
He was targeted on 23.2% of his routes with 1.65 yards per route run after receiving a target on 15.8% beforehand with 0.90 yards per route prior.
Worthy caught at least 4 passes in all seven of those games after catching 4 passes in a game just one time before Week 11.
How much does Rice’s return impact those targets for Worthy in year two?
Despite Worthy, Brown (WR61), and even Kelce (TE7) not projecting well, all players have appeal.
Those are just a couple of examples of spots where I would not overly emphasize the projections to provide an idea of what to look for.
Others who fall under that premise are:
- The Chicago offense overall
- The Dallas backfield
- The Jacksonville backfield
Initial 2025 Fantasy Football Projection Standouts, Targets, Values & Overvalued
While I covered a few examples of when we should not be overly concerned about an initial lack of projection, I want to cover a few players who stand out positively and negatively.
Let’s start with a few positives.
Positive Projection: Drake Maye
(ADP: QB14, Projection: QB10)
Maye has been my favorite early quarterback target.
Maye was the QB7 in fantasy points scored in his full games as a rookie.
His 18.1 expected points per game over that stretch were good for QB10, which is on par with his projection on my end.
I also believe there is a larger upside here because of the moving parts with New England.
The team has three new starters on the offensive line, Josh McDaniels as a play caller, and new players on offense, such as Stefon Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson, and Kyle Williams.
The Patriots also have our second-easiest projected schedule this season.
Positive Projection: Calvin Ridley
(ADP: WR35 Projection: WR24)
Ridley’s 3.8 receptions per game in 2024 were a career low, but his 15.9 yards per catch was a career high.
That was the story for Ridley’s season in a nutshell.
He was forced to live as a downfield asset attached to inefficient quarterback play, especially when Will Levis was under center.
Ridley averaged a career-high 15.7 air yards per target.
26.7% of his targets were 20 or more yards downfield.
The only other wide receivers with 100-plus targets on the season who had a higher rate were DK Metcalf (31.5%), George Pickens (29.6%), and Jordan Addison (28%).
With Levis on the field, 18.6% of his targets were inaccurate throws compared to only a 10% rate from Mason Rudolph.
Cam Ward’s deep accuracy can help maximize Ridley’s target tree in 2024.
I have considered Ridley a value at his opening ADP since he still projects to have a large target share and is getting a quarterback upgrade.
We have seen players such as Nico Collins, Terry McLaurin, and Courtland Sutton get immediate bumps in production attached to rookie quarterback upgrades in the WR3 range, where Ridley is being drafted.
I would not take Ridley in the WR24 range in drafts since I also want to price in some downside for a player who has underperformed expectations in recent years.
Still, he is an example of using his media projection as a target in the portion of drafts where he is currently being selected.
Warning Projection: Baker Mayfield
(ADP: QB7, Projection: QB19)
First, do not get overly alarmed by Mayfeild showing up as QB19 in projections since his projection is less than a point per game from being a QB1.
I do not have him ranked that low, either.
However, Mayfield’s projection is a heat check because he is a significant regression candidate.
Mayfield threw 12.2 passing touchdowns over performance expectations in 2024, second in the league behind Lamar Jackson.
He had a career-high 7.2% touchdown rate.
His previous career high was 5.6%, which came in 2018, his first year in the league.
His touchdown rate in his first season with Tampa Bay was 4.9%.
His 49.4% success rate and 0.17 EPA per dropback were the best of his career.
In his first season with Liam Coen, there was a more significant emphasis on the short passing game.
After averaging 8.6 air yards per throw in 2023 under Dave Canales, Mayfield averaged 7.0 air yards per pass this season.
His average time to throw was 2.62 seconds from the snap, his fastest since his rookie season.
That area is where there was a divide with Mayfield as a passer this year.
When he threw the ball within 2.5 seconds from the snap, Mayfield completed 77.8% of his passes with 27 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
When he held the ball longer than that, he completed 63% of his passes with 14 touchdowns and 13 interceptions.
With Coen taking the head coaching job in Jacksonville, Mayfield will again be working with a new offensive coordinator.
This will be the ninth different coordinator Mayfield has had in the NFL.
He has bounced around a bit, but just once in his career has Mayfield had the same play caller in back-to-back seasons in the NFL.
New coordinator Josh Grizzard was with Tampa Bay last season as the passing game coordinator.
The hope is that he still incorporates the components that led to success last year, but fragility and efficiency regression remain.
Mayfield did throw a league-high 16 interceptions, but he did have a ton of fortune in fumbling 13 times, losing only three of those.
On top of that, Mayfield also set a career high with 55.8 rushing points.
His previous high was 32.1 in 2019.
Mayfield rushed for 378 yards, over 200 more than any previous season.
He had a career-high 6.5% scramble rate.
He still has access to a strong supporting cast to keep his floor potential high, but Mayfield’s opening ADP is overpricing in his 2024 output being static.
You can check out other players as you peruse the projections and combine them with the rankings, but I did want to throw a few out there for early drafters.
