This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out a huge SEC showdown as Missouri hosts Alabama in the first meeting of top-15 teams in Columbia since 1979.
Alabama vs. Missouri, current line:
Alabama at Missouri Best Bet Prediction:
Kalen DeBoer’s squad doesn’t tend to fare well on the road, and this will be the biggest game in Columbia in decades 一 bet on Missouri against the spread.
- Alabama vs. Missouri, best line: Missouri +3.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Missouri +3 points
When Alabama is on Offense
New offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has turned Alabama into a pass-heavy team, partially due to his preference for the style of play but also due to increased confidence in Ty Simpson relative to last year’s quarterback, Jalen Milroe.
Fortunately for Grubb, Alabama’s offensive line play has also improved this year after some early-season hiccups.
That said, Missouri has the most dangerous pass-rush unit the Tide has faced, led by one of the nation’s best pass-rush duos in Damon Wilson II and Zion Young.
Wilson and Young are two of just four SEC pass rushers generating a pressure rate over 20% against FBS competition this season.
So let’s check out the opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions on the pass protection battle:
- Alabama: ranked 26th in pressure rate allowed
- Missouri: ranked 13th in pressure rare generated
The key to Alabama’s offense has been Simpson’s ability to throw downfield.
Outside the red zone, Simpson is completing 58% of his throws of 15 or more yards, the nation’s 11th-best rate.
However, this is likely not an area where Alabama can exploit Missouri’s defense, and not only because of the pass rush.
Missouri is allowing a 35% completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards outside the red zone, ranked 34th.
And while Mizzou hasn’t played any dangerous passing attacks this season, the Tigers ranked 11th by that metric a season ago and returned five defensive backs who made at least six starts on that 2024 team while also adding two safeties with starting experience from the portal.
As for the rushing attack, Alabama had struggled this season up until Jam Miller’s breakout performance last week against Vandy.
While it was encouraging to see Miller go off for 136 yards on 22 carries, we predicted that outcome in last week’s game preview based on Vanderbilt’s poor run defense.
Grubb’s spread offense creates light boxes for its ball carriers, which has been an issue for Vandy but a strength for Missouri.
Let’s compare those defenses with six or fewer defenders in the box:
- Missouri: 2.4 yards per attempt allowed, ranked third
- Vanderbilt: 5.9 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 97th
Even after last week’s outburst from Miller, Tide running backs are still only ranked 70th in yards per attempt against a light box, per Sports Info Solutions.
Due to its inability to consistently run the ball, Alabama has found itself in tough down-and-distance situations at a surprisingly high rate.
The Tide have been in a third-and-long situation 21% of their sets of downs, ranked 40th.
If that happens at a high rate against Missouri, it will create opportunities for the Tigers' dangerous pass rush to get after Simpson.
When Missouri is on Offense
Missouri runs a slightly run-heavy offense under coordinator Kirby Moore, who is in his third season with the program after previously working at Fresno State, where he served as DeBoer’s pass-game coordinator for two seasons.
The strength of the Missouri offense has been the rushing attack behind Ahmad Hardy, a transfer from Louisiana Monroe who has been one of this season’s breakout stars and is flirting with the Heisman race.
Due to the presence of Hardy and Missouri’s offensive line, there is little doubt the Tigers have an edge in the run game, as demonstrated by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Missouri: ranked 26th in yards before contact
- Alabama: ranked 77th in yards before contact allowed
- Missouri: ranked 10th in yards after contact
- Alabama: ranked 12th in yards after contact allowed
Although Alabama excels at preventing yards after contact, the Tide have not played a ball carrier as dangerous as Hardy.
Hardy is averaging 9.5 broken/missed tackles forced per 20 carries, the nation’s second-best rate.
It’s also worth noting that, while Alabama is easily the best overall team Missouri has faced, Hardy has already been challenged by a strong South Carolina defense.
Check out the Gamecocks' opponent-adjusted numbers in contrast to Alabama’s above:
- Ranked 23rd in yards before contact allowed
- Ranked 18th in yards after contact allowed
Hardy helped Mizzou dismiss South Carolina by picking up 138 yards on 22 carries while forcing 11 broken/missed tackles.
Even when Alabama gets early contact, which has not been a strength of its defense, expect Hardy to remain productive as he ranks fifth in the nation with 2.8 yards per attempt when hit at or behind the line of scrimmage.
Hardy’s ability to consistently plow forward has made it nearly impossible to put Missouri behind the sticks.
Only 14% of Missouri’s sets of downs have led to a third-and-long attempt, the fifth-lowest rate.
On passing downs, Missouri will need to protect Beau Pribula, who has struggled against pressure this season.
When facing pressure, Pribula has taken a sack 30% of the time, ranked 138th out of 143 qualified quarterbacks.
Fortunately, Missouri appears to have a massive edge in the trenches against a struggling Alabama pass rush based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Missouri: ranked 18th in pressure rate allowed
- Alabama: ranked 115th in pressure rate generated
Take a look at Alabama’s pressure rate generated against its four Power Four opponents this year, relative to their opponents' pressure rate allowed against others.
Pressure Rate Allowed vs Bama Pressure Rate Allowed vs Others Florida State 30% 46% Wisconsin 42% 35% Georgia 17% 33% Vanderbilt 20% 33%
If Alabama can’t get consistent pressure on Pribula, it will be difficult to disrupt this Missouri offense, which relies heavily on timing to hit underneath routes.
Missouri throws five or fewer yards downfield 54% of the time, the 32nd-highest rate in the nation.
This relatively conservative passing attack has worked well due to the presence of Kevin Coleman Jr, who leads Missouri in receiving while averaging 6.6 yards after catch per reception on those shorter throws.
So if Alabama can’t contain Hardy and can’t consistently disrupt Missouri’s quick-strike passing attack, it could be a tough day for the Tide defense.
Final Thoughts on Missouri vs. Alabama Best Bets
The Tigers appear to have an edge in a few areas on both sides of the ball, so let's bet Missouri against the spread.
Alabama won this game 34-0 last year, so why should we trust Missouri?
Mizzou starting quarterback Brady Cook (now with the New York Jets) was injured in the second quarter while the score was still only 3-0.
His backup, Drew Pyne 一 who is now struggling to hang onto the starting job at Bowling Green 一 tossed 3 interceptions and was simply non-competitive.
This is a better Missouri team, especially when compared to the version with Pyne at quarterback, so it’s tough to take away much from last year’s blowout.
