This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out a key battle between Big 12 contenders as BYU pays a visit to Cincinnati.
BYU vs. Cincinnati, current line:
BYU at Cincinnati Best Bet Prediction:
BYU has been inconsistent on the road, and this will be a tough atmosphere under the lights, so let’s take Cincinnati against the spread.
- BYU vs. Cincinnati, best line: Cincinnati +2.5 points
» Bet it now at Novig: Cincinnati +2.5 points
When BYU is on Offense
BYU leans on a slow, run-heavy approach under coordinator Aaron Roderick and should be able to maintain that strategy against a mediocre Cincinnati defense.
Let’s take a look at the matchup in the run game based on opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- BYU: ranked 84th in yards before contact
- Cincinnati: ranked 42nd in yards before contact allowed
- BYU: ranked 19th in yards after contact
- Cincinnati: ranked 100th in yards after contact allowed
The numbers appear to slightly favor BYU, but this is a unique matchup that might be hard to predict due to Cincinnati’s uncommon defensive style under coordinator Tyson Veidt.
BYU tends to run out of formations that invite stacked boxes, but Cincinnati absolutely refuses to stack the box.
The Bearcats have stacked the box against the run just 30 times this season, most of which have been short-yardage and goal line situations that demand the approach.
So let’s see how these teams compare with a light box, via stats from Sports Info Solutions:
- BYU: 4.8 yards per attempt, ranked 46th
- Cincinnati: 5.4 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 83rd
Sticking with its 3-3-5 defense regardless of the offensive alignment sounds like a risky approach against a physical team like BYU, but the Cougars haven’t been great against that scheme.
BYU running backs are only averaging 4.6 yards per attempt against 3-3-5 alignments, ranked 87th.
One of the benefits of the 3-3-5 scheme is that it keeps better athletes on the field, which should also help Cincinnati defend Bear Bachmeier’s contributions to the run game.
Excluding sacks, Bachmeier is averaging 10.4 carries for 52.8 yards per game.
Based on opponent-adjusted data, Cincy is allowing 20% fewer rushing yards than expected to quarterbacks (ranked 28th)
Although the passing game is a secondary piece of the Cougar offense, BYU has the potential to gain an edge when Bachmeier drops back to pass.
For starters, BYU likely has an advantage in the pass protection battle, as evidenced by these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- BYU: ranked 39th in pressure rate allowed
- Cincinnati: ranked 67th in pressure rate generated
BYU also tends to attack downfield at a high rate, with 27% of its attempts going at least 15 yards downfield outside the red zone (ranked 24th).
Although Bachmeier isn’t a great downfield passer 一 he’s completed 38% of his passes at that depth, ranked 85th 一 Cincinnati has struggled to defend the deep ball.
The Bearcats are allowing a 48% completion rate on throws of 15 or more yards, ranked 106th.
Cincinnati’s defense has also been mistake prone when it comes to penalties, leading the FBS with 15 pass interference penalties.
That is notable in this matchup as BYU’s receivers have drawn 10 such calls from opposing defenses this year.
With potential concerns for Cincinnati’s ability to stop both the run and the pass in this matchup, it’s hard to imagine the Bearcats consistently getting BYU’s offense off the field.
And this tracks with how Cincinnati has fared against others this year, as the Bearcats rank 118th in third-and-long force rate, putting opponents into third-and-long on just 19% of their sets of downs.
BYU ranks 41st in third-and-long avoidance and should be able to find some combination of the run and pass to remain efficient against the Bearcats.
When Cincinnati is on Offense
Cincinnati runs a balanced offense under coordinator Brad Glenn, but it’s basically a one-man show for quarterback Brendan Sorsby.
The Bearcats should start out by trying to exploit BYU’s inconsistent run defense with running backs Tawee Walker and Evan Pryor (who is expected to return from injury this week).
Check out the run game matchup based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Cincinnati: ranked 37th in yards before contact
- BYU: ranked 95th in yards before contact allowed
- Cincinnati: ranked 7th in yards after contact
- BYU: ranked 78th in yards after contact allowed
Cincinnati’s advantage in the run game may actually be greater than those numbers indicate due to its scheme.
The Bearcats’ formations invite stacked boxes at a high rate (57%), which creates problems for BYU.
Take a look at BYU’s run defense based on box type per Sports Info Solutions:
- Light box: 4.4 yards per attempt, ranked 19th
- Stacked box: 6.0 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 129th
BYU’s best performances against the run, such as last week against TCU, have been against spread offenses that force light boxes, and those games have skewed the Cougars' overall run-game numbers in a positive direction.
Now check out BYU’s run defense numbers with a stacked box against a few notable opponents:
- Iowa State: 23 carries for 198 yards
- Texas Tech: 30 carries for 171 yards
- Utah: 13 carries for 105 yards
The Cougars won two of those games (Iowa State and Utah), but their run defense was gashed (a combined plus-6 turnover margin was a major factor in the victories).
An area where BYU might have an edge is with its pass rush, based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Cincinnati: ranked 70th in pressure rate allowed
- BYU: ranked 6th in pressure rate generated
Cincy's offensive line is better than that stat indicates, though, as much of that pressure is due to Sorsby’s tendency to hold the ball and scramble around.
Sorsby handles pressure well, however, and has the lowest sack rate versus pressure in the nation at 3.3%.
He also has a knack for creating big plays against pressure, generating an EPA of 1.0 or higher on 24% of his snaps against pressure, the nation’s 14th-highest rate.
And BYU’s defense has been susceptible to big plays this year, ranking 77th in explosive play rate allowed (gains of 20 or more yards).
It’s worth noting that Cincinnati has lost its previous two games, which makes it appear as though the Bearcats are stumbling down the stretch.
However, Cincinnati lost 5 turnovers in those games after losing only 4 through its first eight games.
The Bearcat offense still averaged over 6 yards per play in those contests and otherwise appeared to be cruising along as usual.
As long as it protects the ball, this could be an opportunity for the Bearcats to bounce back.
Final Thoughts on Cincinnati vs. BYU Best Bets
Let’s trust the veteran quarterback on his home turf and play Cincinnati against the spread.
This is a night game in Nippert Stadium, and it will be a tough environment for BYU's freshman quarterback.
In a potentially close game, quarterback experience could be a significant factor.
