This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s break down a game that could have ACC title implications as Clemson pays a visit to Georgia Tech.
Clemson vs. Georgia Tech, current line:
Clemson at Georgia Tech Best Bet Prediction:
Dabo Swinney’s dynasty is dead and buried 一 take Georgia Tech against the spread.
- Clemson vs Georgia Tech, current line: Georgia Tech +3.5
» Bet it now: Georgia Tech +3.5 points
When Clemson is on Offense
Clemson runs a pass-heavy offense under coordinator Garrett Riley, a similar scheme to the one his brother Lincoln runs at USC.
Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, Clemson is throwing the ball at a rate 13.6% above expected this year, slightly above last year’s 10.1% rate.
Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik was inconsistent in Week 1 against LSU, and a shaky offensive line may have been partially to blame.
Offensive line play has rarely been a strength under Dabo Swinney, but the unit has taken a step back in recent years.
Based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions, Clemson ranked 61st in pressure rate allowed in 2024.
In Week 1 against LSU, Klubnik was pressured on 40% of his dropbacks, completing just 5 of 13 passes with an interception and 2 sacks versus pressure.
Clemson’s offensive line may have suffered a blow in the game in the form of an injury to left tackle Tristan Leigh.
Details of Leigh’s injury are unclear, but he did not play against Troy in Week 2 and was seen in a walking boot.
Leigh had surgery on his ankle in the offseason, so it is possible he aggravated the injury in the season opener.
In 2024, Leigh struggled in pass protection.
His 4.4% blown block rate was the worst among Clemson’s starters per Sports Info Solutions, but his backup Collin Sadler looked overmatched last week against Troy.
Fortunately for Clemson, Georgia Tech did not have a dominant pass rush last season.
The Jackets ranked 68th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated a season ago, though they did get to Colorado quarterbacks at an impressive 44% rate in the season opener.
Colorado’s offensive line struggles have been well documented since Deion Sanders arrived, but that 44% rate was the eighth highest of the Deion era.
Georgia Tech went into the portal for defensive linemen A.J. Hoffler (from Clemson), Akelo Stone (Ole Miss), Matthew Alexander (UCF), and Brayden Manley (Mercer) while also adding true freshman Andre Fuller Jr, who immediately stepped into a starting role.
Hoffler has yet to play due to injury, but this revamped unit may be turning into a strength for first-year coordinator Blake Gideon, who spent the last few seasons as the safeties coach at Texas.
Gideon’s move from Texas to Georgia Tech is also noteworthy in this matchup, as he will be familiar with the Clemson offense from the Longhorns' win over the Tigers in the playoffs.
Another concern for Clemson’s passing attack is the injury to Antonio Williams, who has not played since leaving the LSU game in Week 1.
His status is uncertain, but if he’s out, it could hurt Clemson’s ability to throw downfield.
Williams accounted for 31% of the team’s catches at 15 or more yards downfield in 2024.
The matchup in the run game is more difficult to assess, mostly due to the turnover in personnel on Georgia Tech’s defense.
Clemson had no rushing attack against LSU.
Its running backs were hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 89% of their carries, per Sports Info Solutions.
However, Georgia Tech’s run defense struggles against Colorado, giving up 5.6 yards per carry to running backs and making early contact just 29% of the time.
If this trend holds for Georgia Tech, perhaps Clemson can control the game on the ground, though that would require a shift in game plan from Riley.
When Georgia Tech is on Offense
Georgia ran a balanced offense last year under coordinator Buster Faulkner, though the unit has been more run-heavy in the early going this year.
Based on situational data from Campus2Canton, check out the Yellow Jackets’ pass rate over expected from the last two seasons:
- 2025: 14.8% below expected
- 2024: 0.8% above expected
One possible explanation for the shift to a more run-oriented offense early this season is an effort to fine tune the unit before this matchup with Clemson.
This is a matchup on the ground that Georgia Tech should dominate, as evidenced by this 2024 opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Georgia Tech: ranked 21st in yards before contact
- Clemson: ranked 101st in yards before contact allowed
Although it’s too early to look at opponent-adjusted data for the 2025 season, Georgia Tech seems to have picked up where it left off.
In the season opener against Colorado 一 which ranked 18th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed last year 一 Georgia Tech running backs averaged an impressive 3.1 yards before contact.
Clemson’s early-season defensive numbers are improved, but look at where their opponents ranked in adjusted yards before contact gained in 2024:
- LSU: 107th
- Troy: 97th
So Clemson's improved numbers against the run might be a mirage.
The Tigers' defense also struggled to bring down ball carriers last year, ranking 117th in opponent-adjusted yards after contact allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.
However, the tackling issues are probably less of a concern against the 5-foot-9, 190-pound Jamal Haynes.
When accounting for defenders in the box and the direction of the run, Haynes gained 1.3% fewer yards after contact than expected last year.
None of these rushing stats include the performance of quarterback Haynes King, who adds another dimension to the offense with his mobility.
King’s legs were the difference in Georgia Tech’s win over Colorado earlier this year, as he ran for 156 yards on 19 carries.
King’s mobility should terrify Clemson, which could not contain mobile quarterbacks last season.
Based on opponent-adjusted data, Clemson allowed 18% more yards to quarterbacks than expected, which ranked 110th.
Clemson’s most notable performance against an athletic quarterback was its loss to South Carolina when LaNorris Sellers ran for 175 yards on 13 carries, excluding sacks.
It’s too early to say whether this trend is certain to continue, but just last week, Troy quarterback Goose Crowder carried the ball seven times for 35 yards, excluding sacks, and picked up 5 first downs in the process.
Even the immobile Garrett Nussmeier had 3 carries for 14 yards against Clemson in Week 1, all 3 resulting in first downs. Nussmeier had more than 2 carries (excluding sacks) just once last season.
In the passing game, Georgia Tech might take a step back this year due to the loss of star receiver Eric Singleton to Auburn.
King does still have returning-starter Malik Rutherford, however, and the Yellow Jackets went to the portal for Eric Rivers, a 1,000-yard receiver at FIU a season ago.
Although it’s not the focal point of the offense, King should have time to make some plays in this matchup based on what appears to be a lopsided battle in the trenches.
Check out these 2024 opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Georgia Tech: ranked 12th in pressure rate allowed
- Clemson: ranked 102nd in pressure rate generated
Clemson’s pass rush has completely dried up in recent years, and the unit, despite having some individual talent, is a non-factor.
In the season opener against LSU, Clemson generated a pitiful 17.5% pressure rate, per Sports Info Solutions. And over the last 10 years, six of the 10 worst pressure rates generated by Clemson have come since the start of the 2024 season (which includes that LSU performance).
Concern for Georgia Tech’s passing attack could set in if the Yellow Jackets fall behind and need to produce some big plays.
Outside the red zone, Georgia Tech averaged 7.3 attempts per game at 15 or more yards downfield in 2024, the 33rd highest rate in the FBS.
However, Singleton accounted for 31% of those targets, and he’s now at Auburn.
In a tight game against Colorado in Week 1, King was 0-2 on throws of 15 or more yards and 1-4 on throws of 10 or more yards.
If the Yellow Jackets are less effective throwing downfield this year, it will become easier for defenses to crowd the box and could limit their rushing attack as well.
Final Thoughts on Georgia Tech vs. Clemson Best Bets
The preseason hype for Clemson was wishful thinking.
This is a decent ACC team, but nothing close to a title contender 一 play Georgia Tech against the spread.
This new version of Clemson tends to take care of business against lesser opponents but flops when facing a formidable foe.
Check out Clemson’s performance against teams that finished with at least eight wins a season ago:
- 34-3 loss to Georgia (neutral site)
- 33-21 loss at home to Louisville
- 17-15 loss at home to South Carolina
- 34-31 win against SMU (neutral site)
- 38-24 loss to Texas (CFP)
The Tigers followed that up with a loss to LSU in Week 1 and now face a strong Georgia Tech team on the road.
Clemson is certainly capable of winning this game, but I point out this trend to call attention to the fact that Clemson no longer has a dominant roster relative to its ACC competition.
This version of Clemson is just one of a handful of good ACC teams.
It no longer has an insurmountable talent advantage when facing conference foes like Georgia Tech, Louisville, and SMU.
So, laying more than a field goal with Clemson on the road against a quality conference opponent just doesn't make sense anymore. Take the points with the home underdog.