This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s dive into the SEC Championship showdown between Georgia and Alabama.
Georgia vs. Alabama, current line:
Georgia vs. Alabama Best Bet Prediction:
Trust Big Game DeBoer and take Alabama against the spread.
- Georgia vs. Alabama, best line: Alabama +3
» Bet it now at Novig: Alabama +2.5 points
When Georgia is on Offense
Georgia runs a balanced offense under coordinator Mike Bobo and should be able to find some level of success in both the pass and run game against the Tide.
According to Campus2Canton, the Bulldogs throw the ball at a rate 0.5% below expected based on situational data, and there’s little reason to believe Alabama’s defense will force their hand one way or the other.
In the run game, Georgia’s offensive line has struggled this season, but it shouldn’t meet much resistance from an inconsistent Alabama defensive front.
Check out how the teams stack up in the run game based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Georgia: ranked 73rd in yards before contact
- Alabama: ranked 111th in yards before contact allowed
- Georgia: ranked 52nd in yards after contact
- Alabama: ranked 10th in yards after contact allowed
Due to a combination of Georgia’s offensive formations and a lack of respect for Gunner Stockton as a downfield passer, defenses tend to stack the box at a high rate against the Bulldogs.
Georgia running backs have faced a stacked box 62% of the time this year, the nation’s 20th-highest rate.
That trend creates issues against certain defenses, but Alabama has struggled with a stacked box, as evidenced by these numbers:
- 2.0 yards before contact allowed, ranked 101st
- 4.5 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 75th
That said, Georgia hasn’t been much better, averaging just 4.3 yards per attempt into a stacked box, ranked 79th.
In their first meeting, Alabama stacked the box on 19 of 23 rushing attempts by Georgia’s running backs and mostly held the Bulldogs in check.
When running into the stacked box, Nate Frazier and Josh McCray combined for 19 yards on eight carries, but then third-string freshman Chauncey Bowens got into the action and had some success including a 43-yard run.
Stockton may also be a factor in the run game 一 he’s averaging 40.1 yards per game, excluding sacks 一 but he only carried the ball 2 times for 5 yards when these teams met in September.
The passing game matchup between these teams is even more complicated to decipher.
Alabama hasn’t been great, but Georgia might not have the scheme to exploit the Tide’s weaknesses.
In the first meeting, Stockton completed 13 of 20 passes, but only averaged 6.5 yards per attempt.
Alabama’s weakness is its lack of a pass rush, which is clear from these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Georgia: ranked 9th in pressure rate allowed
- Alabama: ranked 111th in pressure rate generated
A pro-style offense with a quarterback who can stand in the pocket and attack downfield could potentially pick apart this Alabama defense.
But that’s not Georgia’s style.
Stockton ranks 77th in traditional dropback rate (49.7%), and Georgia ranks 75th in yards per attempt on traditional dropbacks (7.7).
In the first matchup, Stockton was just 6 for 10 for 56 yards on traditional dropbacks and 3 for 7 on throws 10 or more yards downfield.
Since Stockton isn’t much of a pocket passer, Georgia tends to attack underneath 一 and they have the weapons to win with that style.
52% of Georgia’s passes have been five or fewer yards downfield, the 38th-highest rate, and its 6.6 yards per attempt on those throws rank eighth in the country.
However, this is an area where Alabama’s defense has been more efficient, allowing just 4.5 yards per attempt on those short throws, ranked 17th.
Georgia’s primary weapon in the short passing game is Zachariah Branch 一 he commands a 29% target share on throws throws 一 but Alabama held him to just 3 catches for 35 yards in the first meeting.
It’s also worth noting that Georgia likely doesn’t have the option to shift to more of a downfield passing attack due to Stockton’s limitations as a passer.
On throws 15 or more yards downfield, Stockton is completing just 39.7% of his throws (ranked 79th) with a 49.2% on-target rate (ranked 77th), per Sports Info Solutions.
So while Alabama's defense isn't all that imposing, it's hard to pinpoint any area where the Bulldogs hold a decided advantage.
When Alabama is on Offense
Alabama runs a pass-heavy offense under Kalen DeBoer and coordinator Ryan Grubb, which often includes an aggressive downfield attack.
Due to Alabama’s offensive approach, the key to this game might be the pass protection battle, which appears to favor the Tide based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 24th in pressure rate allowed
- Georgia: ranked 63rd in pressure rate generated
In the first meeting, Georgia only got pressure on Ty Simpson at a 25% rate.
The lack of a pass rush has been a recurring issue for Georgia in big games this season, as its pressure rate has fallen under 30% four times (also against Ole Miss, Tennessee, and Auburn) 一 more than the previous two seasons combined.
On a positive note, Georgia has been more effective when facing traditional dropbacks:
- 47% pressure rate, ranked 22nd
- 5.9 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 7th
Alabama favors traditional dropbacks, and Georgia limited Simpson’s success on those plays in the first meeting.
When taking a traditional dropback, Simpson faced pressure 47% of the time and averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt, according to Sports Info Solutions.
However, Alabama made the necessary adjustments in that meeting to attack Georgia in other ways.
Simpson used traditional dropbacks just 43% of the time, his second-lowest rate of the year.
And on non-traditional dropbacks, he was 16 of 22 for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns while facing an 8.7% pressure rate.
Expect Alabama to start the game by testing out its typical offense, but it should be able to pivot to the quick passing attack if necessary.
Alabama uses quick dropbacks just 26% of the time (ranked 119th), but it’s a weakness the Tide can exploit in the Georgia defense.
Georgia is allowing 7.3 yards per attempt against quick dropbacks (ranked 103rd) while generating a 19% pressure rate (ranked 96th).
Although it’s unlikely, if Georgia shuts down Alabama’s passing attack, the Tide would be in trouble because shifting to a run-heavy approach is likely not an option.
Take a look at these opponent-adjusted numbers on the run-game matchup from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 30th in yards before contact
- Georgia: ranked 10th in yards before contact allowed
- Alabama: ranked 117th in yards after contact
- Georgia: ranked 8th in yards after contact allowed
Alabama tries to create light boxes with its spread offense, but that shouldn’t trip up Georgia.
The Bulldogs are allowing 3.8 yards per attempt with a light box this season, ranked eighth in the FBS.
To be fair, Alabama did have surprising success against a tough Auburn run defense last week 一 Auburn ranks fourth in light-box run defense 一 but that clearly stands out as an outlier on the Tide’s résumé.
Even after last week’s performance, Alabama only ranks 92nd in yards per attempt into a light box (4.8).
Final Thoughts on Alabama vs. Georgia Best Bets
It’s a good bet to trust DeBoer in big games, so let’s take Alabama against the spread.
As an FBS head coach, DeBoer’s teams are 9-3 outright as an underdog (10-2 against the spread).
On the flip side, when favored by a field goal or less, Georgia is only 6-5 outright under Kirby Smart, including an 0-3 mark over the last two years and a loss to Alabama earlier this season.
Although DeBoer has some bad losses on his résumé, his teams rise up in big games.
