This season I’ll be breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s take a look at this week’s College Game Day matchup between NC State and Clemson.
NC State vs Clemson Spread, current line:
NC State vs Clemson Best Bet Prediction:
Dabo Swinney’s squad typically takes care of business in big games, so lay the points and take Clemson at -6.5 against NC State.
When NC State is on Offense
NC State is a pass-first offense, but it might turn into a pass-only offense against Clemson.
In three games against FBS opponents, Clemson has held opposing running backs to a combined total of -3 yards before contact, and hit ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage on a staggering 71% of carries, per Sports Info Solutions.
NC State ranks 44th in opponent-adjusted yards before contact, so the Wolfpack likely does not have the tools to defeat Clemson in the trenches.
Additionally, both Wolfpack running backs Demie Sumo-Karngbaye and Jordan Houston are dealing with injuries. Houston missed last week’s game and Sumo-Karngbaye was knocked out of the game.
Both ball carriers are expected to play but if they’re at less than full health, it will only be more difficult to run against this Clemson defense.
When Devin Leary drops back to pass, it will be strength versus strength between the NC State offensive line and Clemson’s pass rush.
NC State ranks fifth in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed, while Clemson’s defense ranks ninth in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated, per Sports Info Solutions.
Fortunately for the Wolfpack, Leary handles pressure reasonably well. Since the start of last season, Leary has a sack/interception rate of 19% versus pressure, the fourth lowest rate among 18 qualified SEC quarterbacks in that span.
When Clemson is on Offense
Clemson has become a run-heavy offense in the post-Trevor Lawrence era.
In 2020, Clemson threw the ball at a 58% rate in a neutral game script, per Campus2Canton, but that rate has plummeted to 46% since the start of 2021.
Despite the run-heavy offense, Clemson still lines up in a spread formation, allowing ball carriers to run into a light box on 86% of their carries, the nation’s seventh highest rate.
This run-heavy approach could be problematic against a Wolfpack defense that excels against the run.
Will Shipley managed just 36 yards on 11 carries last year, and was hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on five of those 11 attempts.
The NC State defense appears up for the challenge again, as it currently ranks fourth in the nation in opponent-adjusted yards before contact allowed, according to Sports Info Solutions.
This game could be decided by NC State’s ability, or lack thereof, to get pressure on Clemson quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei.
Check out Uiagalelei's performance on dropbacks with and without pressure:
Comp Pct Yds/Att EPA No Pressure 70.8% 8.9 44.7 Pressure 34.8% 3.7 -15.9
Uiagalelei’s issues with pressure may not matter in this matchup, as NC State ranks 121st in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.
The Wolfpack’s pass rush ranked 10th by this metric a season ago, but lost its top two pass rushers, in terms of quarterback pressures, to the NFL (Daniel Joseph and Vi Jones).
It’s worth noting, however, NC State has not played a difficult schedule and its pressure rate in the first half (29%) relative to the second half (18%) indicates these early-season numbers may be misleading.
Final Thoughts on NC State vs Clemson Best Bets
Weather could be a factor in his game, so approach with caution. As of Thursday morning, however, the forecast is looking more favorable than initially expected 一 there’s only a 22% chance of rain with 4 mph winds in Clemson on Saturday night.
Despite all of Clemson's recent issues, the Tigers have taken care of business in big games 一 they’re 3-1 against the spread when favored by less than a touchdown since the start of last season.
This isn’t my favorite play of the week, partially due to weather uncertainty, but NC State’s pass-rush struggles worry me enough to lay the points and take Clemson.
Other College Football Betting Predictions for Week 4:
