This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.
Let’s check out a critical SEC showdown as Oklahoma tries to keep its playoff hopes alive against Alabama.
Oklahoma vs. Alabama, current line:
Oklahoma at Alabama Best Bet Prediction:
Kalen DeBoer typically takes care of business in this type of game, so let’s play Alabama against the spread.
- Oklahoma vs. Alabama, best line: Alabama -5.5
» Bet it now at Novig: Alabama -5.5 points
When Oklahoma is on Offense
Oklahoma’s offense flows entirely through quarterback John Mateer, taking advantage of his skills as both a runner and passer.
The passing game has been the key to Oklahoma’s success this year, as first-year coordinator Ben Arbuckle favors throwing the ball, with a pass rate 5.2% above expected per Campus2Canton.
Although Mateer, who followed Arbuckle to Norman from Washington State, is a capable passer, he doesn’t have the support of a great offensive line.
As a result, the success of Oklahoma’s passing attack has been heavily matchup dependent.
Fortunately for the Sooners, Alabama has one of the most inconsistent pass-rush units in the SEC.
Check out the pass protection battle based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oklahoma: ranked 41st in pressure rate allowed
- Alabama: ranked 100th in pressure rate generated
Although Oklahoma should be able to protect Mateer, it may not have a huge impact on the game due to Mateer’s struggles as a downfield passer.
On throws of 10 or more yards, Mateer ranks 101st in completion rate (42%) and 103rd in catchable pass rate (66%).
In fact, Mateer has not been a reliable passer overall this season, even in a clean pocket.
On snaps when the defense fails to generate pressure, Mateer is only averaging 7.0 yards per attempt, ranked 104th.
In a clean pocket, he’s also failing to generate big plays, generating 1.0 EPA or higher 20% of the time, ranked 120th per Sports Info Solutions.
Although Alabama’s secondary is not playing up to the elite level it often did under Nick Saban, it’s still a solid unit and ranks 26th in yards per attempt allowed when the pass rush fails to get pressure.
If the Tide can slow down Mateer in the passing game, the Sooners might be able to turn to their rushing attack.
Let’s take a look at how the running backs are likely to fare in this matchup based on opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Oklahoma: ranked 27th in yards before contact
- Alabama: ranked 110th in yards before contact allowed
- Oklahoma: ranked 99th in yards after contact
- Alabama: ranked 14th in yards after contact allowed
Arbuckle’s spread offense consistently forces defenses into light boxes, which should concern Alabama.
The Tide are allowing 5.0 yards per attempt in a light box (ranked 51st).
That said, Oklahoma’s revolving door of a backfield hasn’t been great, picking up just 4.8 yards per attempt with a light box (ranked 86th).
Those numbers only reflect the running backs, however, and Mateer is a big part of the rushing attack as well.
Alabama has not fared well against mobile quarterbacks and ranks 83rd in opponent-adjusted yards allowed to quarterbacks on the ground (excluding sacks), per Sports Info Solutions.
Check out how a few mobile quarterbacks have fared against the Tide:
- Florida State’s Tommy Castellanos: 15 carries for 86 yards
- Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia: 11 carries for 69 yards
- Missouri’s Beau Pribula: 9 carries for 69 yards
- South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers: 16 carries for 80 yards
If Mateer can keep drives alive with his legs, the Sooners will have a chance at an upset.
When Alabama is on Offense
Alabama has been one of the most pass-heavy teams in the country this season under first-year coordinator Ryan Grubb.
According to Campus2Canton, the Tide throw the ball at a rate 10.4% above expected based on situational data.
The passing game has been much improved this year, as Ty Simpson is a better fit than Jalen Milroe for the style Kalen DeBoer wants to play.
Since Alabama relies heavily on the passing attack, protecting Simpson is key, and it looks like this game will feature a good battle in the trenches based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 21st in pressure rate allowed
- Oklahoma: ranked 20th in pressure rate generated
Alabama primarily relies on traditional dropbacks of three or more steps, which invites more pressure, and Alabama has not been great at protecting Simpson in those situations.
On traditional dropbacks, Alabama ranks 53rd in pressure rate allowed, while Oklahoma ranks eighth in pressure rate generated.
It will be critical for the Sooners' pass-rush to get home on those snaps, however, as the Oklahoma secondary is not as strong.
Take a look at these numbers on traditional dropbacks via Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: 10.0 yards per attempt, ranked 15th
- Oklahoma: 8.5 yards per attempt allowed, ranked 100th
The Sooners simply don’t have a dangerous secondary this year, so any time the pass rush doesn’t get to Simspon, they’re in trouble.
Oklahoma ranks 16th in yards per attempt allowed when generating pressure, but just 44th when the quarterback stays clean.
Brent Venables’ defense has been particularly vulnerable to downfield throws, allowing a 50% completion rate on throws of 10 or more yards when failing to generate pressure (ranked 72nd).
With this knowledge of the importance of Oklahoma’s pass rush, Sooners fans should be extremely nervous seeing star pass rusher R Mason Thomas listed as questionable on the injury report.
Against traditional dropbacks, Thomas ranks seventh in the SEC with a 22% pressure rate generated.
Thomas suffered a hamstring injury during the Sooners' last game, and while he’s had a bye week to recover, it seems unlikely that he will be back to full strength if he’s able to play at all.
Thomas played just 17 snaps last time out against Tennessee, and it’s probably not a coincidence that the Sooners produced their lowest pressure rate in SEC play this year (30%).
In the run game, the scales tip towards Oklahoma, but since that’s a small part of the Alabama offense, its impact on the game may be minimal.
Check out the run-game numbers based on this opponent-adjusted data from Sports Info Solutions:
- Alabama: ranked 50th in yards before contact
- Oklahoma: ranked 1st in yards before contact allowed
- Alabama: ranked 127th in yards after contact
- Oklahoma: ranked 42nd in yards after contact allowed
Alabama’s struggles in the run game have set the team up in tough down-and-distance situations at an unfortunate rate.
However, due to its inconsistent secondary, the Sooners have not been dominant in third-and-long situations.
Alabama ranks 19th in third-and-long conversion rate (29%), while the Oklahoma defense ranks 74th (22%).
It could be a long afternoon for the Sooners if they struggle to get off the field on third downs.
Final Thoughts on Alabama vs. Oklahoma Best Bets
It’s easy to see a path to victory for either team, but let’s trust the home team and bet on Alabama against the spread.
DeBoer’s teams have a long history of taking care of business in big games, especially at home.
Since he arrived in Tuscaloosa, DeBoer is 10-3 against the spread at Bryant-Denny Stadium, and 6-2 against the spread against ranked opponents.
