Texas vs. Georgia: Week 12 Betting Pick & Prediction

This season, I’m breaking down a few of college football's biggest games each week and giving out at least one bet I like from each matchup.

Let’s dive into a SEC showdown with significant playoff implications between Texas and Georgia.

Texas vs. Georgia, current line:

Georgia -6.5 at Novig

Texas at Georgia Best Bet Prediction:

Trust Kirby Smart’s defense to keep the Texas offense in check and bet Georgia against the spread.

Texas vs.Georgia, best line: Georgia -5.5

» Bet it now at Novig: Georgia -6.5 points

When Texas is on Offense

Texas runs a pass-heavy offense this season under head coach and play caller Steve Sarkisian.

According to Campus2Canton, the Longhorns throw the ball at a rate 4.3% above average.

Against this Georgia defense, however, Sark may need to lean even more on the passing attack as it won’t be easy to find room to run the ball.

Take a look at these opponent-adjusted numbers on the run game from Sports Info Solutions:

Texas: ranked 112th in yards before contact
Georgia: ranked 11th in yards before contact allowed
Texas: ranked 92nd in yards after contact
Georgia: ranked 12th in yards after contact allowed

Sark’s spread offense can sometimes expose certain types of defenses, but Georgia has the athletes to hold up to the test.

Even with a light box, Georgia is allowing just 3.8 yards per carry to running backs, ranked ninth.

So for Texas to win this game, Arch Manning will need to carry the offense.

While Manning has clearly fallen far short of the unrealistic preseason expectations, he’s shown steady growth this season and might be able to make some plays against a vulnerable Georgia pass defense.

One of the primary reasons Georgia has been shaky against strong passing attacks like Alabama, Tennessee, and Ole Miss has been the lack of a pass rush.

Georgia only ranks 88th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate generated.

Now check out where a few key opponents rank by that same metric on offense:

Ole Miss: ranked 14th
Alabama: ranked 21st
Tennessee: ranked 57th
Texas: ranked 119th

So this will be one of the few games against a quality opponent where Georgia holds an edge in the trenches and should be able to get pressure on Manning.

Whether Manning has success in this game might come down to whether Texas can gain an early lead.

Sark has been stubborn as a play caller this year and failed to put Manning in the best position to succeed.

Sark primarily uses Manning as a pocket passer 一 he has taken a traditional dropback of three or more steps 62% of the time (average is 50%).

However, Manning struggles to be a decisive decision maker when asked to stand in the pocket and read the defense.

When taking a traditional dropback, Manning has been pressured 53% of the time, the nation’s 12th-highest rate.

Some of that is the offensive line, but Manning's indecisiveness as a passer is a major factor as well.

Ideally, Sark pivots to more quick dropbacks (zero/one-step dropbacks and RPOs), which creates easier decisions for Manning and limits the pressure on the offensive line.

However, Texas only uses quick dropbacks 18% of the time (ranked 117th) and almost exclusively does so when playing with a comfortable lead.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Manning’s three worst performances of the year have also featured his three lowest quick-dropback rates of the year:

Ohio State: 8.8%
Florida: 12.2%
Kentucky: 18.8%

This is mostly because Sark refuses to lean into quick dropbacks in a tight game.

When trailing, Manning has used a quick dropback just 14% of the time compared to a 36% rate when winning.

Let’s check out Manning’s stats on quick dropbacks, via Sports Info Solutions:

19% pressure rate, ranked 46th
76% completion rate, ranked 28th
8.4 yards per attempt, ranked 34th
2.5% sack rate, ranked 53rd

Now compare that to traditional dropbacks to see why this is a critical mistake by Sark:

53% pressure rate, ranked 127th
53% completion rate, ranked 93rd
8.4 yards per attempt, ranked 51st
8.5% sack rate, ranked 87th

If Sark does have an awakening and leans more into the quick passing game, Texas’ offense might do some damage 一 Georgia ranks 109th in yards per attempt allowed against quick dropbacks 一 but coaches rarely change their stripes, especially in the middle of a season.

Against traditional dropbacks, Georgia ranks 13th in yards per attempt allowed and 46th in pressure rate.

So if the Bulldogs can just get a lead and force Texas into a less-than-ideal game plan, Smart's defense should be just fine.

When Georgia is on Offense

Georgia runs a balanced offense this season under coordinator Mike Bobo, but might lean more into the passing attack in this matchup against Texas.

First-year starting quarterback Gunner Stockton is not much of a downfield passer and is completing just 37% of his passes at 15 or more yards downfield, ranked 89th.

It appears as though Georgia expected this to be a weakness and went into the portal to land Zachariah Branch from USC, one of the nation’s most dangerous weapons after the catch.

As a result, Georgia has pivoted to an underneath attack, with 49% of their pass attempts coming within five yards of the line of scrimmage.

On those throws, the Bulldogs are averaging 7.0 yards per attempt, ranked sixth in the nation per Sports Info Solutions 一 a huge leap from their 5.6 yards per attempt on Carson Beck‘s throws at that depth last year.

This trend should concern Texas, as defending short passes is one of the few weaknesses of the Longhorn defense.

On throws five or fewer yards downfield, Texas is allowing 5.4 yards per attempt, ranked 74th.

The quick passing game will also be critical to Georgia’s efforts to negate Texas’ pass rush, which ranks 19th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate.

However, on quick dropbacks, the Longhorns only rank 70th in pressure rate generated.

Expect Georgia to lean heavily on those quick pass plays because the run game matchup is less favorable.

Check out these opponent-adjusted stats from Sports Info Solutions on the run game:

Georgia: ranked 53rd in yards before contact
Texas: ranked 5th in yards before contact allowed
Georgia: ranked 29th in yards after contact
Texas: ranked 13th in yards after contact allowed

It’s hard to have success against the Longhorns on the ground because they simply don’t make many mistakes.

Texas allowed three or more yards before contact to running backs on just 18.5% of attempts, the third-lowest rate in the country.

Georgia’s tendency to lean on tight formations is also problematic in this matchup, as the Longhorns are giving up 2.9 yards per attempt with a stacked box, the 11th-lowest rate.

If Georgia has consistent success on the ground, it might need to come from Stockton, who is averaging 38.8 yards per game, excluding sacks.

Based on opponent-adjusted data, Texas only ranks 61st in yards allowed to quarterbacks on the ground, so perhaps there’s something Georgia can exploit there.