It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group. 


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Why You Should Bet the UNDER on D’Andre Swift’s Rushing Yards Prop Bet

  • Schedule loaded with strong run defenses
  • Competition for snaps with Jamaal Williams
  • Likely in unfavorable game scripts 

In four starts during his rookie year, Detroit Lions running back D’Andre Swift averaged 61.8 yards per game, which would put him on pace for 1,050 over a 17-game schedule.

Maintaining that pace would allow Swift to easily hit the over on these numbers, but a number of factors could get in the way.

  • 900.5 rushing yards on BetMGM
  • 900.5 rushing yards on DraftKings
  • 875.5 rushing yards on FanDuel

One of the reasons the Lions run game often sputtered in 2020 was the difficult schedule. Detroit faced the fifth toughest slate based on rush efficiency defense. Unfortunately, it doesn’t get easier, as this year’s schedule is projected to be the third most difficult by the same metric. 

Running back Jamaal Williams, a free agent addition from Green Bay, is also likely to cut into Swift’s workload. According to Kyle Meinke of MLive.com, head coach Dan Campbell recently expressed a desire for them to share the load similar to Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray in New Orleans. 

In 2020, Kamara (the better comparison for Swift) saw 53.7% of the running back handoffs when active. 

During Swift’s four starts last year, he accounted for 70.6% of the carries out of the backfield. So if this backfield ends up closer to a 50/50 split, it’s unlikely Swift approaches that 1,000-yard pace from his brief stint as the starter in 2020. 

Offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn has also stated he wants to stick with whoever is hot, implying we could see an inconsistent workload for each running back from game to game. 

Unfavorable game scripts also have to be factored into Swift’s projection 一 entering the year, Detroit is not favored in a single contest.