It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group.
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Why You Should Bet the UNDER on Jonathan Taylor’s Rushing Yards Prop Bet
- Inconsistent production during his rookie year
- Carson Wentz, even when healthy, might not help
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor closed out his rookie year strong and finished third in the league with 1,169 rushing yards in 2020. However, his production was uneven, and it might be worth betting on him to fall under these totals:
- 1200.5 rushing yards on FanDuel
- 1175.5 rushing yards on DraftKings
- Off the board on BetMGM
To hit the over on FanDuel, Taylor needs to average 70.6 yards per game, less than his 77.9 rushing yards per contest in 2020. That sounds easily attainable at first glance, but prior to a 253-yard outburst against the tanking Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17, Taylor was averaging only 65.4 yards per game.
The addition of Carson Wentz could also hurt the Colts’ run game this season 一 and a similar effect is plausible if Jacob Eason or rookie Sam Ehlinger takes the field in Wentz’s expected early-season absence.
According to Sports Info Solutions, Philadelphia Eagles running backs faced stacked boxes on just 40% of their carries through Wentz’s first six starts in 2020 一 likely because defenses were respecting the former, more competent, version of Wentz. After Wentz’s miserable start to the year, that rate climbed to 58% over the next six games.
A possible explanation could be a shift in personnel formations (more two-tight-end sets would put more defenders in the box). But Philadelphia actually made the opposite move, dramatically increasing their use of 11-personnel run plays later in the year.
Eagles RB vs stacked boxes in Carson Wentz’s starts
| Weeks | % of Att vs 7+ Defenders in Box | % of Att in 11 Personnel | % of Att in 12 Personnel |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | 40.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% |
| 7-13 | 58.4% | 70.3% | 23.8% |
This is further evidence that defenses simply lost respect for Wentz, and shifted their focus to stopping the run.
If Wentz doesn’t rebound and force defenses to respect the Colts’ passing game, it’s going to be difficult for Taylor to find running room this season.
