It’s that time of year to start looking at player props bets for the upcoming 2021 NFL season. In the coming weeks, we’ll take a look at some Over and Under Future bets worth considering at each position group. 

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Why You Should Bet the UNDER on Latavius Murray’s Rushing Yards Prop Bet

  • Murray’s usage is game-script dependent 
  • Saints offense is worse without Drew Brees

New Orleans Saints running back Latavius Murray has topped 550 rushing yards every season since his rookie year, but the 30-year-old may finally take a step backward this season and fall short of his rushing yards prop:

  • 550.5 rushing yards on BetMGM
  • Off the board on FanDuel and DraftKings

In 2020, 45% of Murray’s carries and 48% of his yardage came in the second half of games with the Saints holding a lead 一 both rates ranked as the second-highest in the NFL. 

The Saints like using Murray in those situations because he’s a reliable downhill runner who moves the chains. Only 11.6% of Murray’s carries went for negative yards, the lowest rate in the league. 

The flip side, however, is that Murray doesn’t produce game-changing plays and is a significantly worse option when playing from behind. According to Sports Info Solutions, Murray generated at least +1 EPA on only 5.5% of his carries (ranked 34th), compared to 9.6% for Alvin Kamara (ranked sixth). 

New Orleans went 12-4 a season ago, but without retired quarterback Drew Brees this year, their win total prop bet sits at just nine wins at most sportsbooks. 

Murray was given four or fewer carries in three of the Saints’ four losses in 2020. So if New Orleans is going to flirt with a .500 record, we should expect a significant drop-off in Murray’s production.