Don’t look now, but we’re officially 16.66% through the 2025 NFL season.
Week 4 kicks off with the Arizona Cardinals hosting the Seattle Seahawks.
This is the final slate before bye weeks kick in, and we also have a game that’ll be played in Ireland.
Continue reading below to see my best props for this week, including Chris Olave, Jordan Love, and Bo Nix.
Week 4 Prediction: Chris Olave 6+ Receptions (-125)
While the Saints offense has been one of the most uninspiring and boring in the NFL, Olave is receiving a lot of work.
Through three weeks, he boasts a 31.9% target share and has 37 targets.
Now he’s on the road against the Buffalo Bills, and the Saints are underdogs by more than two touchdowns.
Those 37 targets lead the NFL by two, ahead of Puka Nacua.
He’s also run 125 routes, which is tied for second-most in the NFL.
He’s seen double-digit targets in every game this year.
In his first road game in Week 3 against the Seattle Seahawks, he caught 10 passes on 14 targets.
Now, he’ll be taking on a Bills defense that deploys Cover 3 more than any other coverage, running it about 29.5% of the time.
12 of Olave’s 23 catches have come against Cover 3 along with 14 of his 37 targets.
Additionally, not only is Olave receiving a monstrous target share, but he runs a route on 94.7% of his team’s dropbacks.
The Saints should have to throw a lot as massive underdogs, Olave has a high target share, and he’s met this mark in every game.
He’s in an excellent position to pile up a bunch of catches with the Saints behind early and often.
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Week 4 Prediction: Jordan Love Over 231.5 Passing Yards (-112)
While the Packers and Love are coming off an abysmal outing in Week 3 on the road against the Cleveland Browns, they’re sizable road favourites against a squishy Dallas Cowboys defense.
Over the last two weeks, the Cowboys defense has allowed 450 passing yards to Russell Wilson and 298 passing yards in Week 3 to Caleb Williams.
Looking over the Cowboys’ coverages, they mostly play Cover 2 and Cover 3.
Combined, they run these coverages on about 71% of opposing dropbacks.
Against both of those coverages, Love is 28 of 34 (82.4%) for 395 yards (11.6 yards per attempt) and has 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception.
He’s only gone one 232 yards once this season, but again, he was up against a great Browns defense in Week 3.
Love will also be facing a Matt Eberflus-coached defense for the second time in his career.
He last played an Eberflus defense on January 7, 2024.
In that game, Love completed 27 of 32 passes (84.4%) for 316 yards and 2 touchdowns.
To go further, against Cover 2 and Cover 3 specifically, he was 16 of 20 for 172 yards.
He’s in a great spot to bounce back after a bad outing against Cleveland.
The Dallas pass defense is the worst in the NFL, surrendering 288 per game.
Week 4 Prediction: Bo Nix Under 220.5 Passing Yards (-112)
I can understand that the immediate, knee-jerk inclination whenever you’re considering a prop against the Cincinnati Bengals is to take the over, but here, I’m taking the under on Nix’s passing yards.
So far this season, this is what Nix’s passing yardage logs look like:
- Week 1: 176 passing yards on 40 attempts
- Week 2: 206 passing yards on 30 attempts
- Week 3: 153 passing yards on 25 attempts
Simply put: The guy doesn’t pass for a lot of yards.
He’s averaging just 5.6 yards per attempt, which is 26th in the NFL, trailing Trevor Lawrence and only slightly better than Tyrod Taylor, Spencer Rattler, and Bryce Young.
Now, don’t get me wrong, I know the Bengals pass defense is terrible.
They allowed 290 yards in Week 1 to Joe Flacco and 271 in Week 2 to Lawrence, but they did hold Carson Wentz to 173, and I think that’s a decent game to look toward.
Do I think it’ll be as massive as a blowout?
No, but I do think that between the Broncos defense and their running game, they could take a sizable enough lead that throwing may not even be needed as much.
Furthermore, the Bengals deploy a variety of coverages, including Cover 1, Cover 3, and Cover 6.
These make up 81% of the coverage opposing quarterbacks see on their dropbacks.
Against those this season, Nix is 39 of 60 for 333 yards (5.5 yards per attempt), along with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
There’s just no juice in this passing game right now.
At his current yards per attempt average, he’d need to reach around 40 throws to hit this mark.
As a sizable favorite against a destitute Bengals defense, that level of passing volume just won’t be needed.
