NFL Referee Assignment for Week 18, Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.

Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2025 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

NFL Referee Assignments for Week 18

Bill Vinovich’s Impact on Seahawks at 49ers

The Seahawks and 49ers conclude their regular season vying for the NFC West crown, with the NFC's No. 1 overall seed at stake in a winner-take-all showdown on Saturday night.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Bill Vinovich will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• Vinovich’s crew ranks second in special teams penalty per game average.
• Offensive pass interference penalties have been on the uptick over the past month of the 2025 NFL season, and Vinovich's crew ranks No. 1 for offensive pass interference this season.
• Vinovich’s crew ranked in the top three in assessing both intentional grounding and illegal block in the back penalties. These are low-volume penalties, but extremely impactful when called.
• A below average 23.5% of Vinovich’s overall penalties result in automatic first downs, versus the NFL average of 28.3%.
• Vinovich ranks third in penalty per game average, a departure from his traditional “let 'em play” approach. History suggests they revert to “letting 'em play” here in a high-leverage contest, although that could be wishful thinking on our part.
• Despite their elevated penalty per game average this season, Vinovich’s crew does call a below average percentage of their overall penalties in two extremely key categories: third down plays and in the fourth quarter of games.

The Bottom Line:

• Divisional home teams are 27-35-1 ATS (44%) in Vinovich-officiated games since the start of the 2016 season, including a 3-5 ATS record in 2025.
• In the Kyle Shanahan era, the 49ers are 4-6 on the moneyline and 5-5 ATS in Vinovich-officiated contests, including their two losses to the Chiefs in SBLIV and SBLXIII. In fact, almost every game the Niners have had officiated by Vinovich has been a primetime-standalone-playoff game.
• The Seahawks are 3-0 on the moneyline and 2-1 ATS in Voinovich-officiated contests in the Mike Macdonald era, with all three games on the road, albeit versus subpar competition in those contests.
• Vinovich is 11-5 over the total in 2025, although in divisional matchups, his crew was 4-4 in 2025. Since 2016, Vinovich-officiated divisional games have gone under at a 58% rate.

Ideally, Vinovich’s crew will revert to their normal “let 'em play” approach in what will be a playoff-type atmosphere.

The circumstances around this game are similar to Sam Darnold’s 2024 season with the Vikings, going on the road with a chance to secure the No. 1 seed in the NFC versus a decimated Lions defense.

Darnold’s subpar performance in a high-leverage situation was a big reason for the Vikings' loss, sending them into the Wild Card round and ultimately being eliminated a week later.

There is a chance things unfold similarly for Darnold and his new team on Saturday night in Santa Clara.

The Niners' big-game experience gives them enough of an edge to get the job done at home, and in the process, secure the No. 1 seed, making the San Francisco 49ers +1.5 points the selection in this contest.

Bet the 49ers +1.5

Shawn Smith’s Impact on Ravens at Steelers

Game 272 is not only the finale of the 2025 NFL regular season, but it serves as a de facto playoff game, with the winner of the Steelers versus Ravens capturing the AFC North crown and a playoff berth.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Shawn Smith will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• Smith’s crew is assessing a league-low 32% of their overall penalties via offensive holding and false start. In raw numbers, they rank 17th and 12th in those categories.
• A league-leading 35% of Smith’s penalties assessed result in automatic first downs via penalties, significantly higher than the NFL average of 28.3%.
• The aforementioned automatic first downs are being assessed via two key defensive categories: defensive holding and defensive pass interference, categories Smith’s crew co-ranks second and third in this season.
• Neither the Ravens nor the Steelers offenses have been prolific at generating beneficial penalties in these two categories, so assume minimal gains via passing play penalties.
• No officiating crew has called more unnecessary roughness penalties than Smith’s over the past three seasons, and they currently co-rank third in this category in 2025. These discipline-related enforcements are historically called at a higher rate in primetime contests, so both teams would be wise to play it as cleanly as possible given the crew and the setting for this game.
• A below average 42% of Smith’s penalties are being assessed in the second half of games in 2025.

The Bottom Line:

• Divisional home teams are 16-25-2 ATS (38%) in Smith’s career, although they have performed better in 2025, with a 3-1-1 ATS record.
• The Steelers are 5-3-1 on the moneyline in Smith-officiated contests, but they are 0-1 on moneyline and ATS in their lone divisional matchup with his crew.
• This will be the Ravens' second game with Smith in 2025, the previous a 30-16 win versus the Bears. The Ravens are 4-2 on the moneyline and 2-4 ATS in road games officiated by Smith, favored by an average of 6.5 points in those contests.

There are multiple sources of intrigue leading up to the game, including the return of Lamar Jackson and potentially T.J. Watt, and how effective they will be coming off injuries.

Will it be the final game of Aaron Rodgers’ career?

Pittsburgh has excelled in these situations as a home underdog.

However, as they're currently constructed, the Steelers' limited passing game isn't built to exploit a Ravens secondary that allowed multiple chunk plays to the Packers last week.

Despite their inconsistent play in 2025, a return to the playoffs is one win away for a Ravens team that looked all but done two weeks ago.

The Steelers had a chance to clinch the AFC North last week, but let it slip through their grasp in Cleveland.

Their divisional nemesis will take full advantage of the opportunity Pittsburgh’s loss provided them, making the Baltimore Ravens -3.5 points the selection on Sunday Night Football.

Bet the Ravens -3.5

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2025 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 53-46 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill officiating
• Adrian Hill is 52-45-1 under in his career
• In Divisional games, Hill is 16-11-1 Under in his career

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 57-58-2 ATS in Kemp's career
• Divisional home teams are 16-19 on the moneyline and 14-21 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
• Kemp is 18-17 over the total in career Divisional games

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 24-8 on the moneyline and 20-12 ATS in Eck’s two year head referee career
• Alan Eck was 9-6-1 Under in 2024

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 50-63-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including an 8-9 ATS record in 2024
• Bill Vinovich is 67-48-3 under since 2018, although he went 10-6-1 over in 2024

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
• Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those Allen officiated games since 2016
• Brad Allen is 73-55 under since 2016

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 44-47 on the moneyline and 44-47 ATS in Brad Rogers' career 
• Brad Rogers is 50-42 over the total in his career
• Brad Rogers is 20-15 over in career Divisional games

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 91-57 on the moneyline since 2016 with Carl Cheffers officiating
• Home teams are 77-68-3  ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
• Divisional home teams are 32-19 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Clay Martin is 54-41-3 under in his career
• True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 53-55 on the moneyline & 43-61-3 ATS  
• Divisional home teams are 17-23 on the moneyline & 13-27 ATS in Clay Martin officiated contests

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 67-78-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
• Divisional home teams are 27-26 on the moneyline since 2016
• Blakeman is 28-25 on divisional totals, including 5-2 over in 2024

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 70-73 on the moneyline and 57-83-3 ATS since 2016 in Craig Wrolstad officiated games
• Home underdogs are 22-40-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including a 2-4-1 ATS in 2024

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 102-46 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams are 89-53-5 ATS with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS with John Hussey in 2024

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 32-46-2 ATS in Land Clark’s career

• Clark is 44-35-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 9-8 over in 2024

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 37-55-3 ATS in Scott Novak's career, the lowest  ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
• Divisional home teams are 11-22-1 ATS in Scott Novak's career

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 51-58-4 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including an 8-7-1 ATS record in 2024
• Shawn Hochuli is 65-47-2 under the total in his career
• In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 27-15-1 under the total in his career

Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams were 10-7 on the moneyline and 11-5-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2024
• Home teams are 55-60-2 ATS in Shawn Smith's career
• Shawn Smith was 9-8 Over in 2024 but is 57-56-1 Under the total in his career