We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.
Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.
Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.
A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.
Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.
Same team. Different outcomes.
Throughout this 2025 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.
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NFL Referee Assignments for Week 16
| Week 16 | Referee |
|---|---|
| Rams at Seahawks | Brad Allen |
| Eagles at Commanders | Craig Wrolstad |
| Packers at Bears | Alex Kemp |
| Buccaneers at Panthers | Shawn Smith |
| Bills at Browns | Bill Vinovich |
| Chargers at Cowboys | Alan Eck |
| Jets at Saints | Clay Martin |
| Chiefs at Titans | Clete Blakeman |
| Vikings at Giants | Alex Moore |
| Bengals at Dolphins | John Hussey |
| Falcons at Cardinals | Land Clark |
| Jaguars at Broncos | Shawn Hochuli |
| Steelers at Lions | Carl Cheffers |
| Raiders at Texans | Scott Novak |
| Patriots at Ravens | Brad Rogers |
| 49ers at Colts | Ron Torbert |
Alex Kemp's Impact on Packers at Bears
The Packers and Bears meet for the second time in three weeks, with the outcome of Saturday night's game having major implications across the NFL playoff landscape.
Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Alex Kemp will potentially impact this game.
Penalty Tendencies:
- The offensive holding-false start combination will play a big role in this contest, with those two categories accounting for an above average percentage of each team's and this crew's penalty profile.
- The aforementioned offensive holding-false start combination accounts for an above average 41.5% of penalties assessed by Kemp’s crew in 2025.
- Additionally, the same two categories account for an above average percentage of Packers and Bears penalties committed, at 44% and 42% respectively.
- Kemp’s crew co-ranks No. 1 in interceptions per game in 2025.
- Kemp’s crew ranks second in awarding automatic first downs via penalty on third down plays.
The Bottom Line:
- Favorites are on a historical run in Kemp-officiated contests, with a 27-3 moneyline and 25-5 ATS record since the start of the 2024 NFL season.
- Alex Kemp is 9-4 under the total in 2025, with games averaging just 38.5 points.
If you're a trend advocate, simply wait until kick-off and take the favorite based on Kemp’s numbers in this area.
From a penalty perspective, whichever team can navigate the offensive holding minefield has the upper hand in this matchup, and recent form favors Chicago in that regard.
We had the Packers as -6.5 points in the matchup two weeks ago and felt fortunate to get the win and cover.
The Bears found their footing in the second half and were the better team down the stretch of that game, although ultimately falling short on an end zone interception.
Continuing with the run-heavy approach as they did at Lambeau Field two weeks ago will help Chicago dominate time of possession here and turn the tables on their rivals, making the Chicago Bears the selection in this contest.
Shawn Hochuli's Impact on Jaguars at Broncos
Nobody had this pegged as a pivotal contest when the NFL schedule was released in May. However, we have two of the AFC’s hottest teams in a showdown that will have major implications on the AFC playoffs when the Jaguars face the Broncos on Sunday.
Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Shawn Hochuli will potentially impact this game.
Penalty Tendencies:
- The Jaguars and Broncos rank first and second, respectively, in penalty per game average.
- Hochuli ranks third overall in penalty per game average.
- In raw numbers, Hochuli’s crew ranks third overall in calling the offensive holding-false start combination. This crew ranks in the top five in both categories.
- Hochuli’s crew ranks second overall in awarding automatic first downs via penalty. The bulk of these are assessed in three key categories: unnecessary roughness (1st), roughing the passer (2nd), and defensive pass interference.
- Hochuli ranks third in special teams penalties.
- The Broncos and Jaguars rank as top three penalized units for defensive pass interference.
- Hochuli’s crew ranks top five for defensive pass interference in 2025. That said, they called zero last week, despite some blatant interference penalties in the Chargers-Chiefs matchup. Have they pivoted to a more “let ‘em play” approach down the stretch, or was last week an outlier? We will find out on Sunday in a game that will present multiple opportunities to throw flags on defensive backs.
- Denver ranked highly in our home field advantage rankings, and the Broncos continue to be a top home field performer in 2025, with their defense (and crowd) ranking a top three unit generating false start, delay of game, and offensive holding penalties on opposing teams at Mile High Stadium.
- Hochuli’s crew tends to call more penalties as the game progresses, with an above average 30.5% of their overall penalties assessed in the fourth quarter of games in 2025.
The Bottom Line:
- Hochuli is 8-6 under the total in 2025. However, four of those under games were in divisional matchups like we saw last week in Chargers-Chiefs.
- Home teams have struggled with Hochuli over the course of his career, although the Broncos are 2-0 on the moneyline and 1-0-1 ATS with Hochuli in the Sean Payton era at home.
Ideally, Hochuli’s crew “lets ‘em play,” but the signs are there for this to unravel and become a penalty fest.
Hochuli’s crew can get way too involved at times, especially in high-leverage moments in the fourth quarter.
As for the game itself, it's a big test for a Jaguars team that has exceeded expectations, albeit via a soft schedule.
Jacksonville has faced what could be considered two elite teams in the Rams and Seahawks this season, and they were not competitive in either contest.
Compounding the Jaguars' issues here, Denver hasn't lost at home this season, and this stadium currently ranks as the most difficult venue for opposing offenses to operate in for the 2025 season.
There is a chance these teams meet again in January, adding even more intrigue to this game on Sunday.
We’ll cross that bridge if and when that happens, but for now it's a “show me” spot for a Jaguars team that has yet to notch that marquee win in 2025, making the home team Denver Broncos -3 points the selection in this contest.
2025 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends
A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.
Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 53-46 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill officiating
- Adrian Hill is 52-45-1 under in his career
- In Divisional games, Hill is 16-11-1 Under in his career
Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 57-58-2 ATS in Kemp's career
- Divisional home teams are 16-19 on the moneyline and 14-21 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
- Kemp is 18-17 over the total in career Divisional games
Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 24-8 on the moneyline and 20-12 ATS in Eck’s two year head referee career
- Alan Eck was 9-6-1 Under in 2024
Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- True home teams are 50-63-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including an 8-9 ATS record in 2024
- Bill Vinovich is 67-48-3 under since 2018, although he went 10-6-1 over in 2024
Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
- Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those Allen officiated games since 2016
- Brad Allen is 73-55 under since 2016
Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- True home teams are 44-47 on the moneyline and 44-47 ATS in Brad Rogers' career
- Brad Rogers is 50-42 over the total in his career
- Brad Rogers is 20-15 over in career Divisional games
Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 91-57 on the moneyline since 2016 with Carl Cheffers officiating
- Home teams are 77-68-3 ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
- Divisional home teams are 32-19 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016
Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Clay Martin is 54-41-3 under in his career
- True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 53-55 on the moneyline & 43-61-3 ATS
- Divisional home teams are 17-23 on the moneyline & 13-27 ATS in Clay Martin officiated contests
Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 67-78-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
- Divisional home teams are 27-26 on the moneyline since 2016
- Blakeman is 28-25 on divisional totals, including 5-2 over in 2024
Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 70-73 on the moneyline and 57-83-3 ATS since 2016 in Craig Wrolstad officiated games
- Home underdogs are 22-40-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including a 2-4-1 ATS in 2024
John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 102-46 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
- Home teams are 89-53-5 ATS with John Hussey since 2016
- Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS with John Hussey in 2024
Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 32-46-2 ATS in Land Clark’s career
- Clark is 44-35-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 9-8 over in 2024
Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 37-55-3 ATS in Scott Novak's career, the lowest ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
- Divisional home teams are 11-22-1 ATS in Scott Novak's career
Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams are 51-58-4 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including an 8-7-1 ATS record in 2024
- Shawn Hochuli is 65-47-2 under the total in his career
- In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 27-15-1 under the total in his career
Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting
- Home teams were 10-7 on the moneyline and 11-5-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2024
- Home teams are 55-60-2 ATS in Shawn Smith's career
- Shawn Smith was 9-8 Over in 2024 but is 57-56-1 Under the total in his career
