NFL Referee Assignment for Week 13, Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.

Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2025 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

Don't Miss Out on the Best Betting Recommendations Available

Warren Sharp is entering his 20th year providing winning betting recommendations to clients.

A $100 bettor has won $6,524 following Warren’s picks so far this season.

A $100 bettor won $15,636 following Warren’s picks last season.

Click here to learn more about 2025 Betting Packages!

NFL Referee Assignments for Week 13

Alex Kemp's Impact on Bills at Steelers

The Bills and Steelers showdown is the marquee game of the afternoon window, pitting two teams coming off losses and far from certain to make the playoffs.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Alex Kemp will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• The all-important false start-offensive holding combination is a point of emphasis with Kemp’s crew, accounting for an above average 42% of their overall penalties in 2025. That number is driven primarily via offensive holding, a category they rank second overall.
• The Buffalo Bills rank No. 1 for offensive holding penalties per game.
• The Steelers have the largest home versus road splits for offensive holding, ranking as the least penalized home team in the NFL for offensive holding.
• Kemp’s crew ranks second overall at calling defensive penalties and awarding automatic first downs via penalties on third down plays, adding additional importance to the money down in this contest.
• Despite above average defensive penalties on third down overall, Kemp’s crew is calling a below average percentage of defensive penalties in the red zone this season.
• Special teams penalties account for 22% of overall penalties assessed by Kemp’s crew, versus an NFL average of 18.4% in this category.

The Bottom Line:

• Favorites continue their historic run with Kemp, with a 26-2 moneyline and 23-5 ATS record since the start of the 2024 NFL season.
• The Steelers are 1-2 ATS as home underdogs in Kemp-officiated games, catching on average +4 points in those contests.

The Bills were considered the front-runner for the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC heading into the 2025 NFL season.

Right now, they're fighting for a playoff berth in what amounts to a de facto playoff game between two teams that are hard to trust right now.

Buffalo has had Pittsburgh’s number in the Josh Allen era, winning four of five matchups.

Ultimately, he is the difference in a game between two teams that have major flaws in their rosters.

Additionally, the Bills are coming off extended rest versus a Steelers team that is reeling, making the Buffalo Bills -3 points the selection in this contest.

Bet the Bills -3

Brad Allen’s Impact on 49ers at Browns

The Browns return home after a debut win for rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders last week in Las Vegas. Cleveland faces a major step up in class this week against a 49ers team that looks to be playoff bound.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Brad Allen will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• Allen’s crew is averaging the second-fewest penalties per game through 12 weeks of the NFL season.
• The all-important offensive holding-false start combination accounts for just 33% of Allen's penalties, the second-lowest percentage of any officiating crew this season in these categories.
• The Browns defense (and home crowd) consistently rank as an above average unit at generating offensive pre-snap and offensive holding penalties on opposing offenses. That has continued in 2025, with the Browns defense ranking as a top-five generator of false start and illegal formation penalties and a top-10 unit at generating offensive holding penalties.
• This matchup will be a classic case of “something has to give” because the 49ers are one of the least penalized offenses in the NFL via both offensive pre-snap and holding infractions.
• No officiating crew is awarding fewer automatic first downs via penalty than Allen's. This crew ranks at or near the bottom of the league in calling defensive pass interference, defensive holding, and illegal contact. Both defensive units will be provided leeway on Sunday if that approach from Allen continues on Sunday.

The Bottom Line:

• Since the start of the 2016 season, home teams are winning at a 59% rate in Allen-officiated contests, including a 6-2 moneyline record for home teams in 2025.
• Since 2016, home underdogs are 33-23 ATS (60%) in Allen-officiated contests.

Based on Allen’s numbers, expect a “let ‘em play” type game from the officiating crew, which should favor an extremely physical Browns defense.

The 49ers won in spite of a disastrous Brock Purdy performance on Monday Night Football.

Purdy faces a significantly more difficult task this week versus this Browns defense. Potentially compounding that will be less than ideal conditions in Cleveland.

The 49ers lost outright in his stadium back in 2023 in a low-scoring game.

We're expecting a similarly played game this Sunday, making the Cleveland Browns +5.5 points the selection in this contest.

Bet the Browns +5.5

Clay Martin's Impact on Texans at Colts

Houston heads to Indianapolis looking to extend their win streak and remain in the thick of the AFC playoff race. Conversely, the Colts' seemingly insurmountable lead in the AFC South would be in jeopardy with a loss on Sunday.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Clay Martin will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• No crew has emphasized the all-important false start-offensive holding combination at a higher percentage than Martin’s over the past few seasons. While they don't lead the NFL in this category in 2025, they're still assessing an above average 40% of their overall penalties via this key combination.
• Martin’s crew currently ranks fifth in offensive holding penalty per game average, which is the primary driver of their elevated percentage in the aforementioned false start-offensive holding combination.
• The Texans defense has been the foundation for the team's winning streak. A byproduct of being a lockdown unit, the defense ranks in the top five at generating both false starts and offensive holding on opponents this season.
• Martin’s crew ranks No. 1 in calling defensive holding penalties.
• The Houston offense is a top-three beneficiary of defensive holding penalties, and their defense ranks as the second least penalized at surrendering defensive holding penalties.

The Bottom Line:

• Divisional home teams are 15-30 ATS (34%) in Martin’s career, including a 2-3 ATS record in 2025.
• Martin is 6-5 under the total in 2025, with those games averaging 42.5 points.

C.J Stroud’s return is an additional boost heading into the first of the Texans' two pivotal games versus the Colts down the stretch that will go a long way in determining the AFC playoff picture.

The Colts go into this contest off a grueling overtime loss to the Chiefs last week, a game in which their defense was on the field for 90 plays.

Conversely, the Texans are coming into this matchup off an extended break.

The Texans have won three of the four matchups between these teams in the Stroud/DeMeco Ryans era, and their defense is arguably the best in the NFL right now.

Taking the points in what should be a low-scoring game is the only way we can approach this matchup, making the Houston Texans +3.5 points the selection.

Bet the Texans +3.5

Looking to bet on an NFL game? Check out our full list of NFL betting sites for bonus codes & promos.

2025 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 53-46 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill officiating
• Adrian Hill is 52-45-1 under in his career
• In Divisional games, Hill is 16-11-1 Under in his career

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 57-58-2 ATS in Kemp's career
• Divisional home teams are 16-19 on the moneyline and 14-21 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
• Kemp is 18-17 over the total in career Divisional games

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 24-8 on the moneyline and 20-12 ATS in Eck’s two year head referee career
• Alan Eck was 9-6-1 Under in 2024

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 50-63-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including an 8-9 ATS record in 2024
• Bill Vinovich is 67-48-3 under since 2018, although he went 10-6-1 over in 2024

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
• Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those Allen officiated games since 2016
• Brad Allen is 73-55 under since 2016

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 44-47 on the moneyline and 44-47 ATS in Brad Rogers' career 
• Brad Rogers is 50-42 over the total in his career
• Brad Rogers is 20-15 over in career Divisional games

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 91-57 on the moneyline since 2016 with Carl Cheffers officiating
• Home teams are 77-68-3  ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
• Divisional home teams are 32-19 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Clay Martin is 54-41-3 under in his career
• True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 53-55 on the moneyline & 43-61-3 ATS  
• Divisional home teams are 17-23 on the moneyline & 13-27 ATS in Clay Martin officiated contests

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 67-78-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
• Divisional home teams are 27-26 on the moneyline since 2016
• Blakeman is 28-25 on divisional totals, including 5-2 over in 2024

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 70-73 on the moneyline and 57-83-3 ATS since 2016 in Craig Wrolstad officiated games
• Home underdogs are 22-40-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including a 2-4-1 ATS in 2024

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 102-46 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams are 89-53-5 ATS with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS with John Hussey in 2024

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 32-46-2 ATS in Land Clark’s career

• Clark is 44-35-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 9-8 over in 2024

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 37-55-3 ATS in Scott Novak's career, the lowest  ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
• Divisional home teams are 11-22-1 ATS in Scott Novak's career

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 51-58-4 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including an 8-7-1 ATS record in 2024
• Shawn Hochuli is 65-47-2 under the total in his career
• In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 27-15-1 under the total in his career

Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams were 10-7 on the moneyline and 11-5-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2024
• Home teams are 55-60-2 ATS in Shawn Smith's career
• Shawn Smith was 9-8 Over in 2024 but is 57-56-1 Under the total in his career