NFL Referee Assignment for Week 17, Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.

Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2025 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

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NFL Referee Assignments for Week 17

Ron Torbert’s Impact on Eagles at Bills

The Eagles face the Bills in a heavyweight battle, with Philadelphia having wrapped up the NFC East and playing a Bills team that looks destined to be a Wild Card team. Despite inconsistent play from both teams throughout the 2025 season, this remains a potential Super Bowl 60 preview.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Ron Torbert will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• Torbert’s crew assesses an above average percentage of their overall penalties along the line of scrimmage, which has resulted in Torbert's crew assessing 45.5% of their overall penalties via pre-snap infractions, ranking them No. 1 in this category. In addition to false starts, their primary areas of focus are illegal formation and delay of game infractions.
• Torbert’s crew is assessing a league-leading 74% of their first down penalties on the offense, often via the aforementioned pre-snap infractions.
• Torbert’s crew is assessing a league-low 8.5% of their overall penalties via defensive pass interference and defensive holding, significantly lower than the NFL average of 13.3%. They rank 17th and 10th, respectively, in penalty per game average in those key defensive categories.
• The Eagles are a top-five penalized team for defensive pass interference in 2025. However, the Buffalo offense is not a prolific unit at generating beneficial calls in this category.
• Torbert’s crew co-ranks second overall in calling unnecessary roughness penalties in 2025.
• Torbert officiated contests are averaging the most points off turnovers in 2025.

The Bottom Line:

• Since 2022, the Eagles are 6-0 on the moneyline and 4-2 ATS in Torbert-officiated contests, including a 3-0 moneyline and 3-0 ATS record in the 2024 season. Torbert was the head referee for the Eagles' Super Bowl victory over the Chiefs in February.
• Torbert is 57-45-1 (56%) under the total since the start of the 2020 NFL season, including a 7-7 total record in 2025.

This is a fascinating matchup that can go either way, although there are questions around the motivation for each team because of the limited ability to improve their playoff seeding regardless of the outcome.

From a total perspective, the under would be the way to look, particularly if Torbert does “let ‘em play” on defense.

The Bills can't stop the run, which means it could be another big week for Saquon Barkley in what may be the Eagles' last meaningful regular season game for 2025.

Finally, although it's a limited sample size, the Eagles have had the Bills' number in this matchup.

That dominance continues on Sunday, making the Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 points the selection in this contest.

Bet the Eagles +1.5

Alex Moore's Impact on Bears at 49ers

The Bears pulled off a comeback for the ages last Saturday, and now face the red-hot 49ers in a Sunday Night Football showdown, with the outcome potentially having major implications on the NFC playoff picture.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Alex Moore will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• Moore leads the NFL in penalty per game average.
• The offensive holding-false start combination is a point of emphasis with Moore’s crew, ranking third in penalty per game average in both categories.
• The offensive holding-false start combination accounts for an above average 42% of the Bears' penalties in 2025.
• The 49ers rank 31st in penalty per game average; only the Rams have performed better in 2025.
• The Bears rank third in pre-snap penalty per game average. The 49ers rank 30th in this category.
• A disproportionate percentage of Moore’s penalties are assessed on first and second down, with a slightly above average percentage of these calls assessed on the offense versus the NFL averages for 2025.
• A below league average 16.5% of Moore's penalties are being called on third downs. Furthermore, it's the only down where they assess more penalties on the defensive side of the ball.
• Whether the third down tendencies by this crew have any impact on third down conversions is debatable, but through 16 weeks of the season, Moore-officiated games have recorded the highest third down conversion percentage in the NFL.
• Moore is awarding the most automatic first downs via penalty, with these penalties accounting for 31.5% of overall penalties assessed by this crew. That is above the league average of 28.3%.
• The 49ers co-rank No. 1 for unnecessary roughness, while the Bears rank No. 1 for roughing the passer. Historically, these infractions are called at a higher rate in primetime/standalone contests, so both teams need to be mindful of that going into Sunday Night Football.
• Moore leads the NFL in calling roughing the passer penalties, with 87% of these being called on the road team.

The Bottom Line:

• Home teams are 9-6 on the moneyline and 9-6 ATS (60%) in Moore’s first season as a head referee.
• This will be the 49ers' first game with Moore. However, it's the Bears' second, the previous a 25-24 win at Washington on Monday Night Football as road underdogs.
• Moore is 10-5 over the total in 2025.

Chicago gets a major rest advantage heading into this game, but San Francisco has the benefit of playing at home in primetime.

The 49ers offense is a well-oiled machine right now, and is as well equipped as anyone to navigate this officiating crew’s focus on offensive penalties on early downs.

Looking at the teams strictly from a penalty perspective, the confidence meter is significantly higher that Kyle Shanahan’s team will perform better than the Bears, who can still be undisciplined at times.

Moore’s over record is worth noting, and this has the makings of a back-and-forth contest, with both offensive units having the advantage over their defensive counterparts.

The home teams have performed at an above average rate in Moore’s first season, and that tips the scales in favor of the home team here, making the San Francisco 49ers -3 points the selection on Sunday Night Football.

Bet the 49ers -3

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2025 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 53-46 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill officiating
• Adrian Hill is 52-45-1 under in his career
• In Divisional games, Hill is 16-11-1 Under in his career

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 57-58-2 ATS in Kemp's career
• Divisional home teams are 16-19 on the moneyline and 14-21 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
• Kemp is 18-17 over the total in career Divisional games

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 24-8 on the moneyline and 20-12 ATS in Eck’s two year head referee career
• Alan Eck was 9-6-1 Under in 2024

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 50-63-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including an 8-9 ATS record in 2024
• Bill Vinovich is 67-48-3 under since 2018, although he went 10-6-1 over in 2024

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
• Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those Allen officiated games since 2016
• Brad Allen is 73-55 under since 2016

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 44-47 on the moneyline and 44-47 ATS in Brad Rogers' career 
• Brad Rogers is 50-42 over the total in his career
• Brad Rogers is 20-15 over in career Divisional games

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 91-57 on the moneyline since 2016 with Carl Cheffers officiating
• Home teams are 77-68-3  ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
• Divisional home teams are 32-19 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Clay Martin is 54-41-3 under in his career
• True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 53-55 on the moneyline & 43-61-3 ATS  
• Divisional home teams are 17-23 on the moneyline & 13-27 ATS in Clay Martin officiated contests

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 67-78-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
• Divisional home teams are 27-26 on the moneyline since 2016
• Blakeman is 28-25 on divisional totals, including 5-2 over in 2024

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 70-73 on the moneyline and 57-83-3 ATS since 2016 in Craig Wrolstad officiated games
• Home underdogs are 22-40-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including a 2-4-1 ATS in 2024

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 102-46 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams are 89-53-5 ATS with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS with John Hussey in 2024

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 32-46-2 ATS in Land Clark’s career

• Clark is 44-35-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 9-8 over in 2024

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 37-55-3 ATS in Scott Novak's career, the lowest  ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
• Divisional home teams are 11-22-1 ATS in Scott Novak's career

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 51-58-4 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including an 8-7-1 ATS record in 2024
• Shawn Hochuli is 65-47-2 under the total in his career
• In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 27-15-1 under the total in his career

Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams were 10-7 on the moneyline and 11-5-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2024
• Home teams are 55-60-2 ATS in Shawn Smith's career
• Shawn Smith was 9-8 Over in 2024 but is 57-56-1 Under the total in his career