NFL Referee Assignment for Week 12, Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.

Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2025 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

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NFL Referee Assignments for Week 12

Alex Moore’s Impact on Colts at Chiefs

When the schedule was released, few would have predicted the Chiefs would be sitting on the brink of missing the playoffs while the Colts would be considered among the best teams in the NFL. Yet, that's where things stand as we look towards one of the most pivotal matchups of the 2025 NFL season.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Alex Moore will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• Moore’s crew ranks No. 1 in penalty per game average through 11 weeks of the season.
• Moore’s penalty emphasis contrasts with the Colts and Chiefs, who are two of the least penalized teams in the NFL. It will be interesting to see who wins out on Sunday. Ideally, Moore’s crew “lets ‘em play,” although there is no evidence supporting that based on their body of work this season.
• The all-important false start-offensive holding combination is a point of emphasis with Moore’s crew, ranking first and fifth, respectively, in these key categories.
• Something has to give on Sunday because the Colts are the least penalized team for false starts in the NFL.
• Both Kansas City and Indianapolis rank as highly penalized teams for offensive holding. However, the Chiefs' home vs. road splits are noteworthy. Kansas City ranks second for offensive holding penalty per game average on the road compared to 19th at home. It's another advantage for this team playing at Arrowhead Stadium, where the crowd impact plays a part over the course of a game for the home team.
• The Chiefs rank 26th and the Colts 30th in pre-snap penalty per game average.
• No crew has awarded more automatic first downs via penalty than Moore's in 2025.
• Moore’s crew has placed an above average emphasis on first down penalties, especially on the offensive side of the ball when compared to the NFL average.
• However, only 14.5% of Moore’s penalties are assessed on third down, significantly less than the league average of 21.3%. Despite excessive penalties in almost every measurable category by this crew, they do tend to “let ‘em play” on the money down more than most.

The Bottom Line:

• In his rookie season as a head referee, home teams are 6-4 on the moneyline and 7-3 ATS with Moore. This will be his first game as a head referee at Arrowhead Stadium and his first game involving either of these teams.

It's not a “must-win” spot for the Chiefs, but a loss here leaves very little room for error down the stretch, so expect them to be hyper-focused for this one.

Arrowhead Stadium is one of the most intimidating venues for referees and opposing teams to operate in, and it's provided the Chiefs with a unique advantage during their amazing run.

This is a huge matchup in its own right, but it also represents a pivotal moment in the overall NFL landscape.

A Colts victory legitimizes their season and simultaneously reduces the Chiefs' chances at a playoff berth, something fans of 31 other teams would love to see.

Kansas City finds itself in uncharted waters, in as close to a “have to have it” game as they have faced this early in the regular season in a long time.

The Chiefs came up short at the Bills and Broncos, but this team rarely loses at home.

They will hold off the talk of their demise for another week with a much-needed win here, making the Kansas City Chiefs -3 points the selection in this contest.

Bet the Chiefs -3

Clay Martin’s Impact on Buccaneers at Rams

The Rams and Buccaneers enter Sunday Night Football leading their respective divisions, although the trajectory of each team is vastly different. The Rams are arguably the hottest team in the NFL, while Tampa Bay limps in off consecutive losses.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Clay Martin will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• League-wide, offensive penalties account for 47.3% of flags in 2025. Martin's crew is assessing 53% of overall penalties on the offense, ranking them second in this category.
• An above average 45% of Martin’s penalties are assessed via pre-snap infractions, including ranking No. 1 in calling illegal formation.
• No crew has emphasized the all-important false start-offensive holding combination at a higher percentage than Martin’s over the past few seasons. While they don't lead the NFL in this category in 2025, they're still assessing an above average 40.5% of overall penalties via this key combination.
• The Rams rank as the least penalized team and the least penalized offense in the NFL. That has resulted in LA having the highest positive offensive penalty EPA by a wide margin over the next team in this category.
• The Rams and Buccaneers offenses currently rank as top five beneficiaries of automatic first downs via penalty.
• The Buccaneers rank as a top 10 penalized team for offensive holding, although they have improved in the past few weeks as key players in this unit return from injury.
• In home games, the Rams defense ranks second overall in per game average of generating offensive holding on opposing offenses.
• Defensively, Martin’s crew focuses on defensive holding more than any other category, co-ranking No. 1 in this category.

The Bottom Line:

• The Rams are 6-0 on the moneyline and 4-1-1 ATS in Martin-officiated contests, including 2-0 moneyline and ATS in 2024. The Rams were favored by an average of 4 points in those contests.

The Rams' numbers with Martin shouldn't come as a surprise, as they have been one of the league's best teams and consistently rank among the least penalized offenses with Sean McVay.

That serves them well with officiating crews that disproportionately emphasize the offense and line of scrimmage infractions.

For their part, the Buccaneers are a disciplined team, as well.

Against anyone besides the Rams, they would be considered the mistake-free squad.

Heading into this game, injuries on the Buccaneers are too significant to overlook.

Compounding that, Tampa is in a brutal scheduling spot, which could make the going tough in the second half.

Laying this many points against a feisty Buccaneers squad is not a smart strategy long-term.

Based on the situation detailed, though, LA has enough firepower to create separation in a higher scoring contest, making the Rams -6.5 points the selection on Sunday Night Football.

Bet the Rams -6.5

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2025 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 53-46 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill officiating
• Adrian Hill is 52-45-1 under in his career
• In Divisional games, Hill is 16-11-1 Under in his career

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 57-58-2 ATS in Kemp's career
• Divisional home teams are 16-19 on the moneyline and 14-21 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
• Kemp is 18-17 over the total in career Divisional games

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 24-8 on the moneyline and 20-12 ATS in Eck’s two year head referee career
• Alan Eck was 9-6-1 Under in 2024

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 50-63-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including an 8-9 ATS record in 2024
• Bill Vinovich is 67-48-3 under since 2018, although he went 10-6-1 over in 2024

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
• Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those Allen officiated games since 2016
• Brad Allen is 73-55 under since 2016

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 44-47 on the moneyline and 44-47 ATS in Brad Rogers' career 
• Brad Rogers is 50-42 over the total in his career
• Brad Rogers is 20-15 over in career Divisional games

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 91-57 on the moneyline since 2016 with Carl Cheffers officiating
• Home teams are 77-68-3  ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
• Divisional home teams are 32-19 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Clay Martin is 54-41-3 under in his career
• True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 53-55 on the moneyline & 43-61-3 ATS  
• Divisional home teams are 17-23 on the moneyline & 13-27 ATS in Clay Martin officiated contests

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 67-78-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
• Divisional home teams are 27-26 on the moneyline since 2016
• Blakeman is 28-25 on divisional totals, including 5-2 over in 2024

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 70-73 on the moneyline and 57-83-3 ATS since 2016 in Craig Wrolstad officiated games
• Home underdogs are 22-40-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including a 2-4-1 ATS in 2024

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 102-46 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams are 89-53-5 ATS with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS with John Hussey in 2024

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 32-46-2 ATS in Land Clark’s career

• Clark is 44-35-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 9-8 over in 2024

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 37-55-3 ATS in Scott Novak's career, the lowest  ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
• Divisional home teams are 11-22-1 ATS in Scott Novak's career

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 51-58-4 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including an 8-7-1 ATS record in 2024
• Shawn Hochuli is 65-47-2 under the total in his career
• In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 27-15-1 under the total in his career

Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams were 10-7 on the moneyline and 11-5-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2024
• Home teams are 55-60-2 ATS in Shawn Smith's career
• Shawn Smith was 9-8 Over in 2024 but is 57-56-1 Under the total in his career