NFL Referee Assignment for Week 11, Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.

Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2025 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

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NFL Referee Assignments for Week 11

John Hussey’s Impact on Seahawks at Rams

The Rams and Seahawks are arguably the two hottest teams in the NFL right now, and this could be the best game of the week, with the outcome having a major impact on NFC playoff seedings.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of John Hussey will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• An above average 42% of Hussey’s penalties are assessed via the all-important offensive holding-false start combination, ranking him third in the league when measured by overall percentage.
• The Rams rank as the least penalized team in the NFL through 10 weeks of the season and are on a historically low pace in offensive penalty per game average.
• The Seahawks and Rams rank 31st and 32nd in pre-snap penalties per game.
• An above average 17% of Hussey’s penalties are assessed via defensive pass interference and defensive holding. Defensive pass interference is the primary driver of this elevated number, a category in which this crew ranks in the top five.
• The Rams rank as a top-five beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalty, something that has been a staple of this Rams offense in recent seasons.
• The Seahawks and Rams rank as top-10 beneficiaries of defensive pass interference penalties, led by Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Davante Adams as the primary targets when generating these penalties.

The Bottom Line:

• Since 2016, Hussey has been the best home field referee in the NFL. The advantage increases in these situations, with divisional home teams 45-16 (74%) on the moneyline and 41-18-2 ATS (70%) over that time frame.
• This will be the Rams' second game with Hussey in 2025, the previous a 33-19 win at the Titans in Week 2.
• In the Sean McVay era, the Rams are 6-1 on the moneyline and 4-3 ATS at home in Hussey-officiated contests played at home.

The easiest way to stop the Seahawks' passing attack is to sack Sam Darnold.

No defense knows how to do that better than the Rams, based on their 9-sack performance against Darnold's then-Vikings team in the 2024 Wild Card Round.

Fast forward to 2025, and this is a “show-me” spot for the surging Seahawks against a Rams team with a championship pedigree.

Based on the numbers detailed, the assignment of Hussey certainly adds to the home team's chances on Sunday.

Ultimately, the McVay-Matthew Stafford combination holds the edge over their Seahawks counterparts in this one, making the Los Angeles Rams -3 points the selection in this contest.

Bet the Rams -3

Adrian Hill’s Impact on Chiefs at Broncos

Kansas City heads to Denver in the unusual position of starting up in the standings at their division rival. It's a huge game for both teams, and the Broncos would love nothing more than to end the Chiefs' stranglehold on the AFC West crown with a season-defining win at home.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Adrian Hill will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• Hill co-ranks second for offensive holding penalties per game.
• The all-important false start-offensive holding combination accounts for an above average 41% of penalties assessed by this crew. In raw numbers, they rank second in penalty per game average in the two categories combined.
• At home, the Broncos defense (and home crowd) rank as a top-five unit at generating false starts and offensive holding on visiting teams in 2025, continuing a trend that has made Mile High Stadium one of the NFL’s best home field advantages in the NFL.
• The Broncos offense ranks as a top-five penalized team for offensive holding.
• The Chiefs rank as a top-10 penalized team for offensive holding.
• It's a low-volume penalty category, but worth noting as we head into this contest; Hill’s crew ranks No. 1 for offensive pass interference. That is noteworthy, as the Broncos rank No. 1 in offensive pass interference.
• On the defensive side of the ball, 16.5% of Hill's penalties are assessed via defensive pass interference and defensive holding penalties, ranking him third in overall percentage. In raw numbers, Hill’s crew ranks second and sixth in these two key penalty categories.
• Hill’s crew currently ranks No. 1 in calling illegal contact penalties.
• Hill’s crew zeroes in on offensive penalties on third down, calling a disproportionate 67% of money down infractions on the offense.
• The Broncos rank No. 1 in surrendering automatic first downs via penalty. The positive is that only 25% of these occur on third down, which is below league average.

The Bottom Line:

• Kansas City is 4-0 on the moneyline and 3-1 ATS with Hill, with three of those games on the road. Kansas City was favored by an average of -9 points in those four contests.
• Divisional home teams are 13-16 in Hill’s career. Sixteen of those teams were home underdogs, and they are 7-9 ATS in those contests.
• Hill is an NFL leading 7-2 under the total in 2025.

Despite their 8-2 record, questions remain about the legitimacy of this Broncos team after less-than-impressive wins versus the Jets, Texans, and Raiders.

The defense is one of the league's best and clearly the strength of the team.

However, Bo Nix’s struggles continue to be an issue, and the offense is limited.

Because of the focus on line of scrimmage penalty emphasis and Hill’s totals record, the under 44.5 points would be the optimal way to approach this game from a betting perspective.

It's in the Chiefs' DNA to win these types of games, and they understand a loss here would leave little room for error moving forward.

The Broncos defense will keep the Chiefs in check for the majority of the game, but history suggests Patrick Mahomes will ultimately make more plays at key moments than his counterpart.

That adds up to making the Kansas City Chiefs -4 points the selection in this contest, and keeping their division hopes alive in the process.

Bet the Chiefs -4

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2025 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 53-46 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill officiating
• Adrian Hill is 52-45-1 under in his career
• In Divisional games, Hill is 16-11-1 Under in his career

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 57-58-2 ATS in Kemp's career
• Divisional home teams are 16-19 on the moneyline and 14-21 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
• Kemp is 18-17 over the total in career Divisional games

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 24-8 on the moneyline and 20-12 ATS in Eck’s two year head referee career
• Alan Eck was 9-6-1 Under in 2024

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 50-63-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including an 8-9 ATS record in 2024
• Bill Vinovich is 67-48-3 under since 2018, although he went 10-6-1 over in 2024

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
• Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those Allen officiated games since 2016
• Brad Allen is 73-55 under since 2016

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 44-47 on the moneyline and 44-47 ATS in Brad Rogers' career 
• Brad Rogers is 50-42 over the total in his career
• Brad Rogers is 20-15 over in career Divisional games

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 91-57 on the moneyline since 2016 with Carl Cheffers officiating
• Home teams are 77-68-3  ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
• Divisional home teams are 32-19 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Clay Martin is 54-41-3 under in his career
• True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 53-55 on the moneyline & 43-61-3 ATS  
• Divisional home teams are 17-23 on the moneyline & 13-27 ATS in Clay Martin officiated contests

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 67-78-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
• Divisional home teams are 27-26 on the moneyline since 2016
• Blakeman is 28-25 on divisional totals, including 5-2 over in 2024

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 70-73 on the moneyline and 57-83-3 ATS since 2016 in Craig Wrolstad officiated games
• Home underdogs are 22-40-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including a 2-4-1 ATS in 2024

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 102-46 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams are 89-53-5 ATS with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS with John Hussey in 2024

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 32-46-2 ATS in Land Clark’s career

• Clark is 44-35-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 9-8 over in 2024

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 37-55-3 ATS in Scott Novak's career, the lowest  ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
• Divisional home teams are 11-22-1 ATS in Scott Novak's career

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 51-58-4 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including an 8-7-1 ATS record in 2024
• Shawn Hochuli is 65-47-2 under the total in his career
• In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 27-15-1 under the total in his career

Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams were 10-7 on the moneyline and 11-5-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2024
• Home teams are 55-60-2 ATS in Shawn Smith's career
• Shawn Smith was 9-8 Over in 2024 but is 57-56-1 Under the total in his career