NFL Referee Assignment for Week 15, Impact on NFL Betting

We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or a bad no-call.

Yet, each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.

Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.

A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.

Referee style one week may hide a team's weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.

Same team. Different outcomes.

Throughout this 2025 NFL season, we'll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet.

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NFL Referee Assignments for Week 15

Shawn Hochuli's Impact on Chargers at Chiefs

The Chiefs' divisional dominance ended with their Week 14 loss to Houston on Sunday Night Football. Despite that, Kansas City has a path to a Wild Card spot, although there is zero room for error over the final month of the 2025 season.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Shawn Hochuli will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• In raw numbers, Hochuli’s crew ranks No. 1 in calling the offensive holding-false start penalty combo by per game average, with a disproportionate percentage of those assessed via false start.
• The Chargers rank as a top-five penalized team for false starts.
• The Chiefs rank as a top-five penalized team for offensive holding.
• Hochuli ranks third in special teams penalty per game average, which equates to less-than-ideal starting field position in most instances.
• Hochuli ranks No. 1 for unnecessary roughness and second for roughing the passer penalties.
• Hochuli has awarded the second-most automatic first downs via penalty in 2025. These penalties were assessed overwhelmingly via three categories: the aforementioned unnecessary roughness and roughing the passer, as well as defensive pass interference.
• The Chiefs are the only team not to be penalized for a defensive pass interference at home in 2025.

The Bottom Line:

• Divisional games are 30-15-1 (67%) under the total in Hochuli’s career, including a 3-0 under record in 2025.

The offensive line issues for both teams are compounded by the assignment of Hochuli’s crew.

Neither offense is built to overcome self-inflicted setbacks via penalty.

This game has all the ingredients to be an ugly, low-scoring AFC West tilt, making the under the clear-cut play.

As far as a side, this is it for the Chiefs, who need to win out to secure a playoff berth while getting help from other teams.

The Chargers are on a short week off a physical overtime Monday Night Football game versus the Eagles.

Philadelphia created havoc up front on the Charger offensive line, and Steve Spagnuolo will have this Chiefs defense exploit the Chargers' backup tackles in this game.

Despite having their own issues, the Chiefs offense does enough to get the win and cover, making the Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 points the selection, and keeping their playoff hopes alive for another week.

Bet the Chiefs -4.5

John Hussey's Impact on Bills at Patriots

The Patriots host the Bills on Sunday, looking to complete the season sweep and, in the process, shift the balance of power in the AFC East back to New England after four seasons of irrelevance.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of John Hussey will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• The offensive holding-false start combination of penalties accounts for 41.5% of Hussey’s penalties assessed, ranking his crew as the third-highest percentage in the NFL in these categories.
• A disproportionately high 44% of Hussey’s penalties are assessed via pre-snap infractions, ranking in the top five for both false start and illegal formation.
• The Buffalo Bills rank as the No. 1 penalized team for offensive holding.
• The Patriots have the largest home vs. road splits for false starts, ranking as the No. 1 penalized road team in this category versus a bottom-five penalized team at home.
• Hussey’s crew ranks No. 1 in assessing defensive pass interference penalties.
• The Patriots offense is a top-five beneficiary of defensive pass interference.

The Bottom Line:

• Since the start of the 2016 season, divisional home teams are 47-16 (75%) on the moneyline and 42-19-2 ATS (69%) in Hussey-officiated contests, including a 3-0 moneyline and 1-2 ATS record in 2025.

Despite already beating the Bills earlier in the season, this is a statement game for the Patriots, with many still questioning their legitimacy after being beneficiaries of a soft schedule in 2025.

For their part, this is a landmark game for Buffalo, who were the presumptive AFC East power heading into 2025 and beyond.

The rise of this young Patriots team has quickly changed the balance of power in the division and the AFC Conference.

The Bills have the reigning MVP in Josh Allen, but the Patriots have the more well-rounded roster and coaching advantage in this matchup.

In a down-to-the-wire finish, New England completes the season sweep over Buffalo, making the Patriots +1 the selection in this contest.

Bet the Patriots +1

Brad Rogers' Impact on Packers at Broncos

The surging Packers head west to face the AFC-leading Broncos in a matchup that has the potential to be a Super Bowl preview.

Let's assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Brad Rogers will potentially impact this game.

Penalty Tendencies:

• An NFL leading 75% of Rogers’ penalties are assessed via offensive and special teams penalties, significantly higher than the league average of 65.3% in these categories.
• The false start-offensive holding combination accounts for 44.5% of penalties assessed by Rogers’ crew, ranking them No. 1 in overall penalty percentage in these two categories.
• The Packers rank as a top-five penalized road team for offensive holding.
• Denver ranked highly in our home field advantage rankings, and the Broncos continue to be a top home field performer in 2025, with their defense (and crowd) ranking a top-three unit generating both false starts and offensive holding penalties on opposing teams at Mile High Stadium.
• The Broncos rank as the No. 1 penalized team for offensive pass interference penalties, which can potentially be an issue on Sunday. No official has called more offensive pass interference penalties since the start of the 2022 season than Rogers.
• The Broncos and Packers defensive units rank first and seventh, respectively, in terms of automatic first downs via penalty.
• The positive for both teams on Sunday is that Rogers’ crew co-ranks last in awarding automatic first downs via penalty.
• The Broncos and Packers are top-five penalized defensive units on third down plays.
• It will be a case of something having to give on third downs in this game, because Rogers’ crew is calling the fewest third down defensive penalties in 2025.

The Bottom Line:

• The Broncos are 1-6 on the moneyline and 2-5 ATS in Rogers-officiated contests. The most recent was their controversial 35-33 home loss versus the Commanders in 2023. The NFL has kept Rogers off Broncos games ever since, until this week.
• Brad Rogers is 7-5 under the total in 2025, with those games averaging 43.5 points.

Denver has a checkered past with Rogers’ crew, so it will be interesting to see if that continues on Sunday.

How the game is officiated will be of great interest.

These teams share many similarities, but Rogers’ officiating style has not focused on those problem areas for both teams.

The Broncos have been great this season, but their winning streak has to end somewhere, and the Packers are a step up in class compared to some of Denver’s opponents in recent weeks.

This is a potential Super Bowl preview and provides us an opportunity to see division-leading teams from different conferences in a high-leverage matchup.

We believe the NFC is the premier conference by a wide margin. making the Green Bay Packers -2.5 points the selection in this contest.

Bet the Packers -2.5

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2025 NFL Referees Stats & Their Historical Betting Trends

A comprehensive breakdown for every NFL Referee working games for the 2024 season, plus a deeper look at their penalty-calling historical trends, statistics, and how it may impact betting opportunities, plus the pace of gameplay.

Adrian Hill: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 53-46 ATS in true home games with Adrian Hill officiating
• Adrian Hill is 52-45-1 under in his career
• In Divisional games, Hill is 16-11-1 Under in his career

Alex Kemp: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 57-58-2 ATS in Kemp's career
• Divisional home teams are 16-19 on the moneyline and 14-21 ATS in Alex Kemp’s career
• Kemp is 18-17 over the total in career Divisional games

Alan Eck: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 24-8 on the moneyline and 20-12 ATS in Eck’s two year head referee career
• Alan Eck was 9-6-1 Under in 2024

Bill Vinovich: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 50-63-4 ATS with Vinovich since 2018, including an 8-9 ATS record in 2024
• Bill Vinovich is 67-48-3 under since 2018, although he went 10-6-1 over in 2024

Brad Allen: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 74-53-1 on the moneyline with Brad Allen since 2016
• Home teams are 69-56-3 ATS in those Allen officiated games since 2016
• Brad Allen is 73-55 under since 2016

Brad Rogers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• True home teams are 44-47 on the moneyline and 44-47 ATS in Brad Rogers' career 
• Brad Rogers is 50-42 over the total in his career
• Brad Rogers is 20-15 over in career Divisional games

Carl Cheffers: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 91-57 on the moneyline since 2016 with Carl Cheffers officiating
• Home teams are 77-68-3  ATS with Cheffers since the start of the 2016 NFL season
• Divisional home teams are 32-19 ATS with Carl Chaffers since 2016

Clay Martin: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Clay Martin is 54-41-3 under in his career
• True home teams in Clay Martin's career are 53-55 on the moneyline & 43-61-3 ATS  
• Divisional home teams are 17-23 on the moneyline & 13-27 ATS in Clay Martin officiated contests

Clete Blakeman: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 67-78-3 ATS with Blakeman since the start of 2016
• Divisional home teams are 27-26 on the moneyline since 2016
• Blakeman is 28-25 on divisional totals, including 5-2 over in 2024

Craig Wrolstad: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 70-73 on the moneyline and 57-83-3 ATS since 2016 in Craig Wrolstad officiated games
• Home underdogs are 22-40-2 ATS with Wrolstad since 2016, including a 2-4-1 ATS in 2024

John Hussey: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 102-46 on the moneyline with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams are 89-53-5 ATS with John Hussey since 2016
• Home teams were 10-6 on the moneyline and 11-5 ATS with John Hussey in 2024

Land Clark: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 32-46-2 ATS in Land Clark’s career

• Clark is 44-35-1 under the total in his career, although Clark was 9-8 over in 2024

Scott Novak: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 37-55-3 ATS in Scott Novak's career, the lowest  ATS percentage of any referee since his debut in 2019
• Divisional home teams are 11-22-1 ATS in Scott Novak's career

Shawn Hochuli: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams are 51-58-4 ATS in Shawn Hochuli’s career, including an 8-7-1 ATS record in 2024
• Shawn Hochuli is 65-47-2 under the total in his career
• In Divisional games, Shawn Hochuli is 27-15-1 under the total in his career

Shawn Smith: Referee Penalty Trends & How it may impact betting

• Home teams were 10-7 on the moneyline and 11-5-1 ATS with Shawn Smith in 2024
• Home teams are 55-60-2 ATS in Shawn Smith's career
• Shawn Smith was 9-8 Over in 2024 but is 57-56-1 Under the total in his career