Week 10 of the 2024 NFL season features two intriguing matchups that will have significant implications for their respective divisions.
The Detroit Lions, riding high on a six-game winning streak, travel to Houston to face the Texans. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints, looking to rebound after a coaching change, host their NFC South rivals, the Atlanta Falcons, in a crucial divisional showdown.
Both games could shape the playoff picture as we approach the latter half of the season.
Week 10 Best Bet Prediction: Lions -3.5 at Texans
First, let's address the Texans' seemingly impressive 4-0 home record. While it looks good on paper, a closer examination reveals that these victories came against underwhelming opponents.
They faced the Bears with a rookie quarterback, a struggling Jaguars team that's now 2-7, an injury-plagued Bills squad, and the Colts, who were rotating quarterbacks. This soft schedule has inflated the Texans' home record, masking their true performance level.
The Texans' offensive line woes are a significant factor that could tilt the game in Detroit's favor.
C.J. Stroud has been under constant pressure, enduring eight sacks in their Week 9 loss to the Jets alone. This isn't an isolated incident, as Stroud has been sacked at least three times in five games this season.
He is now the second-most-sacked quarterback in the league behind only Deshaun Watson.
The offensive line's struggles are further highlighted by the fact that 26.5% of Houston's drives end in third-and-long situations, ranking them 29th in the league.
This inability to protect their quarterback and sustain drives will likely be exploited by a Lions defense that's been performing well, 10th in pressure rate despite being without star defensive end Aidan Hutchinson.
Detroit's balanced offensive attack presents an additional challenge for the Texans defense.
Ranked sixth in rushing yards per game and 15th in passing yards, the Lions can keep defenses guessing and exploit weaknesses in multiple ways. This versatility will be particularly troublesome for a Texans defense that has allowed a league-high 10 touchdowns from outside the red zone, indicating vulnerability to big plays.
The Lions' impressive +110 point differential demonstrates their ability to win games convincingly, which bodes well for covering the spread.
Additionally, quarterback Jared Goff has been in exceptional form, boasting an impressive 11-0 touchdown/interception ratio over the last five games. This level of efficient, mistake-free play will be crucial in exploiting the Texans' defensive weaknesses.
While the Texans may have the advantage of extra rest, the Lions come into this matchup with momentum and a team built for road success.
Their balanced offense, coupled with Goff's elite play, should be more than enough to overcome the -3.5 spread against a Texans team that has benefited from a soft home schedule and continues to struggle with offensive line issues.
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Week 10 Prediction: Falcons at Saints Over 46 points
The Falcons' offense has been particularly potent on the road this season, scoring on an impressive 57% of their possessions away from home, second in the NFL.
This road efficiency suggests that Atlanta is likely to put up significant points against the Saints defense, which has shown vulnerabilities in recent games.
Kirk Cousins has been in exceptional form since the season opener. He's completed 72% of his passes, ranking 4th in the league, while averaging 8.3 yards per attempt (8th) and throwing for 13 touchdowns against just 3 interceptions.
This level of efficiency and production means that the Falcons' passing game is primed to exploit any weaknesses in the Saints' secondary.
The Saints offense presents a multi-faceted challenge that could contribute significantly to a high-scoring game.
Their running backs are averaging 9 targets per game, the highest in the NFL, adding a dynamic passing element to their ground game. This versatility makes their offense more unpredictable and harder to defend.
Plus, New Orleans has shown a strong commitment to the run, rushing on 55% of their plays from scrimmage in their previous game, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL that week. This balanced approach keeps defenses honest and opens up opportunities for big plays in both the running and passing game.
Meanwhile, both teams have displayed defensive weaknesses that could lead to a scoring bonanza.
The Falcons' run defense was particularly porous in their previous game, allowing 6.5 yards per carry, the worst in the NFL during Week 9. This vulnerability could allow the Saints to sustain long drives and score consistently.
On the other side, the Saints defense has been a “pick your poison” situation for opponents. They've struggled mightily against the run, giving up 225 rushing yards to Denver and another 277 rushing yards and four touchdowns to Tampa Bay. They even lost to a Carolina Panthers team led by quarterback Bryce Young, further highlighting their defensive inconsistencies.
Given the Falcons' road scoring efficiency, Cousins' impressive improved passing statistics, the Saints' balanced offensive attack, and the glaring defensive weaknesses on both sides, this game has all the ingredients for a high-scoring shootout.
The game total of 46 points seems conservative considering these factors, making the over a compelling bet for this divisional clash.
