As we enter Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, the landscape is beginning to take shape, with some teams exceeding expectations and others struggling to find their footing.
The focus this week will be on one promising underdog that could potentially upset the odds as well as two game totals that warrant closer examination.
These selections are based on recent team performances, key player matchups, and emerging trends that could significantly impact the outcomes.
Let’s dive into the analysis of these carefully chosen betting opportunities for Week 4.
Week 4 Best Bet Prediction: Bengals at Panthers Over 46.5
The Panthers’ defense, ranked 28th by PFF, has shown significant weaknesses through the first three weeks of the 2024 season.
They’re struggling to stop the run (28th in rushing yards allowed), generate pressure on quarterbacks (28th in pressure rate), and defend against the pass (25th in opponent completion percentage).
Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense should capitalize on these vulnerabilities.
Coming off season highs in completions (29), yards (324), and touchdowns (3) in Week 3, Burrow is poised for another strong performance.
The Panthers’ poor red zone defense could further contribute to a high-scoring affair. They’ve allowed touchdowns on 8 of 9 red zone trips (second worst in the league) and the fourth most touchdowns overall.
On the other side, the Bengals’ defense has its own issues.
When unable to pressure the quarterback, Cincinnati has allowed an 82.1% completion rate (30th) and 8.2 yards per pass attempt (25th).
Andy Dalton, coming off a 70.3% completion rate and 8.6 yards per attempt against the Raiders, could exploit these weaknesses.
The combination of Carolina’s defensive struggles across the board and Cincinnati’s vulnerabilities when not generating pressure sets the stage for a potentially high-scoring game.
With both offenses capable of exploiting the opposing defenses’ weaknesses, the over 46.5 points looks appealing in this matchup.
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Week 4 Prediction: Broncos +7.5 at Jets
The Broncos’ defense has been impressive, excelling in both quarterback pressure and pass coverage.
Their pass rush, spearheaded by Jonathan Cooper, boasts the third-highest pressure rate in the league. That could spell trouble for the Jets’ offensive line.
This vulnerability is exacerbated by the absence of right tackle Morgan Moses, who’s out with an MCL sprain and bone bruise. His replacement, a rookie, might struggle against Denver’s formidable pass rush.
Denver’s pass defense has been equally stout, ranking third in both opponent yards per pass attempt and yards per completion.
The Broncos’ secondary has effectively neutralized top receivers, limiting DK Metcalf, George Pickens, and Mike Evans to under 29 receiving yards each.
Remarkably, they’ve allowed only one reception of 20+ yards this season, the fewest in the NFL.
Patrick Surtain II continues to anchor this secondary as one of the league’s premier cornerbacks.
If the Jets are forced to rely heavily on their running game, it could prevent them from building a substantial lead.
This scenario would enhance the Broncos’ chances of keeping the game within the 7.5-point spread.
The combination of Denver’s strong pass defense and the potential for a run-heavy Jets offense makes the Broncos +7.5 an attractive bet for Week 4.
Week 4 Prediction: Browns at Raiders Under 37
Low totals are less concerning when facing two strong defenses and struggling offenses.
The Raiders’ ground game has been particularly ineffective, averaging a mere 2.8 yards per rush attempt, last in the NFL.
Their offensive line has struggled in pass protection, allowing 12 sacks for 95 yards lost.
Additionally, their third and fourth down efficiency is abysmal, converting only 32.43% of third downs (12 of 37 attempts) and 20% of fourth downs (1 of 5 attempts).
The Raiders’ offensive woes could be further exacerbated when facing the Browns’ formidable defense.
Cleveland boasts an elite pass rusher in Myles Garrett, who ranks second in ESPN’s pass rush win rate. This mismatch could lead to significant pressure on Raiders’ quarterback Gardner Minshew (assuming Garrett plays through his lower body injuries).
On the other side, Cleveland’s offense shows no signs of improvement.
Deshaun Watson continues to struggle, averaging just 4.8 yards per pass attempt and being sacked a league-high 16 times through three games.
Injuries to the offensive line are now a contributing factor.
Right guard Wyatt Teller has been placed on injured reserve, tackle Jack Conklin has yet to play this season, and Jedrick Wills Jr. returned from injury only to leave Week 3 reinjured.
These line issues have significantly hampered the offense’s ability to produce.
With both teams likely to focus on their defensive strengths and struggle offensively, expect a game dominated by sacks and punts.
Take under 37.5 points.
