The NFL win total market has moved the least I’ve ever witnessed over the last three months. Since late April, to suggest there has been little movement would be an understatement.
For example, at South Point in Las Vegas, only four teams saw their win total adjust 0.5 games, and the other 28 teams are still sitting at a number which is identical to that which their market opened.
But when you account for juice, those four teams that moved a half-game actually moved much less than that:
The only teams at South Point to move a half-game are:
· Jacksonville Jaguars from 8 over -110 to 7.5, but the over is now -130
· Kansas City Chiefs from 10 over -120 to 10.5, but the over is now +100
· New England Patriots from 11.5 over +100 to 11, but the over is now -140
· Oakland Raiders from 6.5 over +100 to 6, but the over is now -125
In every situation, while the linemaker moved the line by a half-game, their adjustment to juice offset much of that movement. For example, a true half-game move downward for the Patriots would have been from 11.5 over +100 to 11 over +100. But the over is now -140, which is heavily juiced to the over and reduces the downward movement of the half-game line adjustment.
Looking at an average line across three Las Vegas sportsbooks (South Point, Westgate, and CG Technology), I assembled a consensus number which factors in juice. I then compared that line to the consensus from late April.
Compare 2019 to 2018. At this time in 2018, we saw six teams’ win totals move by at least 0.4 games between April and July. In 2019, not a single team has a win total which has moved by 0.4 games or more.
Looking at the numbers in this manner, the three teams to see the most action on the over are the Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New York Giants. The three teams to see the most action on the under are the Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Los Angeles Rams.
