The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 9 Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Sunday afternoon game.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | NY Jets | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -13 | Spread | 13 | ||
| 30.25 | Implied Total | 17.25 | ||
| 29 | 2 | Points/Gm | 22 | 18 |
| 14 | 1 | Points All./Gm | 19.9 | 11 |
| 65 | 8 | Plays/Gm | 63.6 | 15 |
| 59.7 | 4 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 65.6 | 25 |
| 6.6 | 1 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 21 |
| 5 | 6 | Def. Yards/Play | 4.7 | 3 |
| 38.02% | 20 | Rush% | 37.52% | 24 |
| 61.98% | 13 | Pass% | 62.48% | 9 |
| 38.52% | 6 | Opp. Rush % | 42.86% | 20 |
| 61.48% | 27 | Opp. Pass % | 57.14% | 13 |
- 82.6% (19-of-23) of the Buffalo touchdowns have come via passing, the highest rate in the league.
- 50% of the Jets’ touchdowns have come via passing, 25th in the league.
- 52.9% (9-of-17) of the touchdowns against the Jets have come through the air, 10th lowest in the league.
- 27.3% of the passing plays against the Jets have resulted in a first down or touchdown, third-lowest rate in the league.
- Buffalo is averaging 104.6 more passing yards per game than their opponents, the largest differential in the league.
- The Bills are allowing 1.42 points per drive, second in the league.
- The Jets are allowing 1.64 points per drive, sixth in the league.
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Allen had his first human moment for fantasy last week, closing as the QB14. He still scored 17.6 points in his worst-scoring fantasy game of the season. In any other week this season in the NFL, 17.6 points would have gotten into QB1 territory, but we finally had a strong offensive week overall across the league.
Allen completed a season-low 52% of his pass (13-of-25) and threw a pair of interceptions, but he still managed to average 8.7 yards per attempt, throw a pair of scores, and rush for 49 yards.
This week, Allen draws a Jets defense that has been one of the better units to open the year. The Jets are allowing 11.1 passing points per game (11th) while allowing 0.317 passing points per attempt (fifth).
The Jets are fifth in pressure rate (36.0%) and third in the rate of quarterback hits per dropback (19.3%) while only blitzing 15.8% of the time (30th). We mentioned it last week, but one of the ways to actually disrupt Allen is getting home with the blitz, something the Jets just do not do a lot of.
The Jets also have had one of the easier run outs of opposing quarterback schedules to open. They have already faced Jacoby Brissett, Mitchell Trubisky/Kenny Pickett, Skylar Thompson, Aaron Rodgers, Brett Rypien, and Mac Jones. The only two fantasy QB1 options they have faced so far have been Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, who scored 20.2 and 23.0 fantasy points those weeks.
The last time these teams played, Robert Saleh was able to throw enough at Allen to hold him to a 53.3% completion rate, 5.3 Y/A, and 239 passing yards. In that game, Allen still threw a pair of touchdowns and ran for 63 yards, producing 23.9 fantasy points. Allen’s floor is too strong to handle him as anything other than a front-end fantasy QB.
