The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 1 San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears Sunday afternoon game.
| San Francisco | Rank | @ | Chicago | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -7 | Spread | 7 | ||
| 24.25 | Implied Total | 17.25 | ||
| 24 | 15 | Points/Gm | 18.3 | 27 |
| 20.6 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 23.9 | 21 |
| 60.6 | 28 | Plays/Gm | 63.2 | 14 |
| 61.6 | 10 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 59.4 | 1 |
| 6 | 2 | Off. Yards/Play | 4.9 | 27 |
| 5.1 | 4 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 15 |
| 48.39% | 4 | Rush% | 44.19% | 9 |
| 51.61% | 29 | Pass% | 55.81% | 24 |
| 41.31% | 14 | Opp. Rush % | 47.87% | 32 |
| 58.69% | 19 | Opp. Pass % | 52.13% | 1 |
- The 49ers scored a touchdown on 66.7% (36-of-54) of their red zone possessions, the highest rate in the league in 2021.
- The Bears scored on just 50% of their goal-to-go possessions in 2021, the lowest rate in the league.
- The 49ers averaged a league-high 7.7 yards per passing play in 2021. Chicago ranked 30th (5.3 yards).
- San Francisco averaged 6.4 yards per play on first downs in 2021, the most in the league.
- The 49ers allowed 4.8 yards per play on first down plays, second in the league.
- The Bears allowed a sack on a league-high 9.7% of dropbacks in 2021.
- 39.5% of the yardage gained against the Bears in 2021 came via rushing, the highest rate in the league.
Quarterback
Trey Lance: Lance entered the NFL with the most limited resume of any first-round quarterback while sitting out 2020 and playing in an FCS program. A tempered learning curve was always a potential outcome. As part of that process, Lance took just 86 dropbacks in 2021 and immediately handed the offense back to Jimmy Garoppolo without question from the staff anytime the veteran was able to play.
When we did see Lance play, he led all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback (0.75) on his limited sample due to his rushing ability. In his two starts, he scored 14.6 and 19.1 fantasy points while throwing just two fewer touchdown passes as a rookie than Justin Fields (on 199 fewer attempts) and four fewer than Zach Wilson (on 142 fewer passes).
Lance completed 11-of-16 passes for 141 yards (8.8 Y/A) with a score in the preseason, going a non-descript 7-of-11 for 49 yards in his final tune-up versus the Texans.
With the hire of Matt Eberflus, we can expect the Bears to shift to a team that is primarily zone-based defense that ramps up the amount of Cover 2 and Cover 3 they play. In the preseason, the Bears were in Cover 2 21.5% of the time, which was fifth in the league. They were in Cover 3 37.7% of the time (15th). In 2021, the Bears were in Cover 3 for 29.8% of their snaps (24th) and Cover 2 just 8.5% of their snaps (19th).
Lance was at his best against these coverages in a small sample as a rookie, completing 24-of-39 passes for 10.3 Y/A against those two looks. What gave Lance the most trouble was man coverages, where he was 7-of-15 (46.7%) for 8.3 Y/A. From 2018-2021, the Colts played man coverage on 11.4% of their snaps, which was 24th in the league.
Lance has the rushing ability to provide a high floor even if he struggles as a fringe QB1, but he also has the surrounding talent and coaching insulation to provide a runway for a ceiling should things come together.
