Rams vs. 49ers Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 5

The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 5 matchup between the Rams and 49ers on Thursday Night Football.

Find a breakdown of every Week 5 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.

Trust = spike production for that player

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford: Stafford had his best game of the early season on Sunday versus the Colts.

He completed 70.7% of his passes (29 of 41) for 375 yards (9.1 Y/A) with 3 touchdowns.

He ended the week as the QB2 (27.4 points), his first QB1 scoring week of the season.

Stafford continues to operate under center at the league’s highest rate (60.2%), which has opened up an increased rate of pre-snap motion and play action.

On his snaps under center, the Rams have used motion on 75% of those dropbacks and play action on 75.9%.

On those plays with motion and play action under center, Stafford has connected on 26 of 34 passes (76.5%) for 318 yards (9.4 Y/A) with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions.

Most importantly, Stafford is operating from a clean pocket.

When Stafford has not been pressured this season, he has completed 77.5% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

When pressured, Stafford has completed 48.9% of his passes (18th in the league when pressured).

Getting to the quarterback could prove challenging for the 49ers.

They are 21st in pressure rate (33.1%).

In their first game without Nick Bosa, the 49ers had a league-worst 16.1% pressure rate in Week 4.

Jacksonville’s quick passing game has limited the pass rush against everyone, so we will keep a close eye on things here.

However, going back to last year, the 49ers have the lowest pressure rate in the NFL with Bosa off the field (24.9%).

Reaching Stafford has been crucial in this matchup.

In eight games against the 49ers since joining the Rams, Stafford has averaged just 6.4 Y/A with 8 touchdowns and 9 interceptions.

The 49ers have pressured him on 34.5% of those dropbacks.

Under pressure in those games, Stafford has completed 44.4% of his passes for only 4.6 yards per pass attempt and 1 touchdown.

When kept clean in those games, Stafford has completed 73.1% of his passes for 7.1 Y/A.

I would still prefer to use Stafford as a floor-based QB2 with upside to become a QB1 when he runs hot in the touchdown department, as he did last week.

San Francisco has still been sturdy in bulk, allowing 11.9 passing points per game (9th), 5.6 Y/A (3rd), and a league-low 8.2 yards per completion.

This will be the best passing game they have faced, however, after opening the year up against Sam Darnold, Spencer Rattler, Kyler Murray, and Trevor Lawrence.

Brock Purdy: Purdy returned to the field on Sunday after missing two weeks due to turf toe.

He threw for 309 yards, 8.1 yards per pass attempt, and 2 touchdowns, but he also completed only 57.9% of his passes with a pair of interceptions.

His 15.8% inaccurate throw rate was 25th in the league in Week 4.

Most importantly, Purdy was said to have been experiencing pain in his toe on Monday morning.

We will follow his status on a short week and adjust accordingly if Purdy is unable to play on Thursday.

Purdy was also pressured on 40% of his dropbacks after a 43.6% pressure rate in Week 1.

The 49ers should have their hands full in that regard here.

The Rams have a 42.2% pressure rate (10th) and a 10.1% sack rate (2nd).

They pressured Purdy on 47.4% and 44.1% of his dropbacks in this matchup a year ago.

On top of the pass rush and his potentially ailing toe, Purdy could be down multiple playmakers here.

Ricky Pearsall is dealing with a knee injury.

If holding out for an optimal outcome, Purdy did have a 292-yard game with 3 touchdowns in this matchup a year ago despite missing multiple starters, including George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey.

That said, Purdy is someone I would handle with QB2 expectations, given everything working against him here, and take any upside outcome as a bonus.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey: McCaffrey handled another high workload again this past week, turning 23 touches into 141 yards and a touchdown.

The San Francisco rushing game was once again limited.

McCaffrey rushed 17 times for 49 yards (2.9 YPC).

CMC has now rushed for 3.3 yards per carry, which ranks 30th among 36 running backs with 30 or more rushes.

McCaffrey has a 29% success rate (34th) with a run of 10 or more yards on 7.2% of his runs (29th).

He is averaging 0.74 yards before contact per rush, which is 28th.

After contact, he is averaging 2.39 yards per rush, which is 28th, so it is not all on the offensive line.

While the running game has been next to non-existent here, McCaffrey has made up for it through the air.

His 29.3% target share not only leads all running backs but also ranks eighth overall.

Only Puka Nacua (50) has more targets than McCaffrey (43).

Only Nacua (42) and Jake Ferguson (34) have more receptions than McCaffrey (31).

He leads all running backs with 305 receiving yards, which is seventh overall.

You should not dump him to do it, but I still believe that McCaffrey is someone to shop around for when (if) this pass-catching role is no longer as necessary as it is right now, which could reveal a lower floor if the rushing efficiency never returns.

That said, McCaffrey is needed as a pass catcher again here, given the missing parts.

That keeps him in play as a front-end RB1, but I do have reservations about ceiling production.

The 49ers could alleviate his workload, given that it's a short week, but they have already been managing his rushing usage to a degree to keep him active as a receiver.

McCaffrey has 75.8% of the backfield rushes (RB11).

The Rams also provide a challenge, paired with San Francisco having a lower-end team total.

Running backs have only scored 19.6% of the fantasy points allowed by the Rams, the lowest share in the league.

They are coming off weeks facing Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor.

Where they have not been challenged is by a strong receiving back in the company of McCaffrey.

Running backs have just 46 receiving yards against the Rams so far through four games, a number CMC has eclipsed in every game.

Kyren Williams: Williams turned 16 touches into 94 yards on Sunday.

We have seen Williams increase his efficiency as a runner over the past two weeks, but we have also seen Blake Corum become more involved to start the season.

Williams handled 59.3% of the backfield touches on Sunday, his lowest rate in a game this season.

Corum has picked up more work each week, handling 9.5%, 20.8%, 26.7%, and 40.7% of the backfield touches each week.

The best news for Williams was that Corum only managed 16 yards on his 11 touches Sunday, but we need to see Williams regain a 70-75% backfield share in the big picture.

The Rams still are not throwing to their running backs, so Williams needs volume to complement his touchdown equity.

Stafford has a 12% target rate to running backs, 30th in the league.

Through four weeks, Williams has only one RB1 scoring week.

Williams is a touchdown-based RB2 here.

Although Corum has been getting more work overall, Williams has still out snapped him 29-9 in the red zone.

The 49ers have allowed 4.1 YPC to running backs (15th) with a 60.9% success rate (17th) against those runs.

They are coming off allowing 154 total yards and a touchdown to the Jacksonville backfield last week, allowing 124 yards rushing to Travis Etienne.

Wide Receiver

Puka Nacua: Nacua reeled in 13 of 15 targets for a career-high 170 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.

We are running out of ridiculous things to say about Nacua.

Nacua leads the league in targets (50), receptions (42), and yards (503).

Those receptions are tied for the most ever through four games of any season.

Sean McVay even got him a red zone target on Sunday (which he cashed in for a touchdown), just his second of the season.

Nacua has been targeted on an absurd 41.7% of his routes, posting 4.19 yards per route.

He is playing a career-high 42% of his snaps from the slot.

We would think that Nacua has to slow down to some degree, but he is currently the best fantasy WR1.

He has only played two complete games against the 49ers, with games of 15-147-0 (on 20 targets) and 7-97-0 (on 8 targets).

The 49ers have been strong against receivers to open the year, but they have also not faced a wealth of good quarterback play or a wideout in Nacua’s stratosphere.

The 49ers have allowed 7.1 yards per target (14th), 10.8 yards per catch (5th), and a 3.2% touchdown rate (8th) to wide receivers.

Davante Adams: Adams pulled down 4 of 6 targets for 51 yards and a touchdown in Week 4.

Adams has only reached 60 yards receiving in one of the opening four games, but he has held onto the best usage near the end zone to make up ground.

Adams has a league-high 90% target share on end zone targets.

The Rams have thrown 10 passes into the end zone.

9 of those have gone to Adams.

In a perfect world, we will see Nacua share more targets outside of the red zone with Adams and vice versa, with Nacua getting more end zone opportunities.

Overall, Adams has a 26.3% target share (WR15) to go along with that touchdown upside.

Adams is a touchdown-based WR2.

Adams has played 83.6% of his snaps outside, where San Francisco has been at their best.

As noted above, apply grains of salt for opposing quarterback play to this point, but the 49ers have allowed the second-fewest points to outside receivers (13.1 per game).

Jauan Jennings: Jennings came into Week 4 nursing ankle and shoulder injuries that forced him to miss Week 3.

He has practiced only twice since Week 1.

Catching 2 of 5 targets for 16 yards on Sunday, Jennings picked up a rib injury to his list of ailments, taking a shot on a two-point conversion reception.

Jennings was not listed as a participant in practice on Monday, but it was not a typical practice day given the short week.

If we knew Jennings was 100% healthy, this would be an ideal situation to be bullish with him as the WR1 in this offense.

Ricky Pearsall feels like a long shot to play.

We will follow the status of Jennings leading into Thursday.

If he can log a full practice, that will add some confidence in using him as an upside WR2.

Without a full practice, there is a level of risk tolerance with Jennings as a WR2.

We have a 385-route sample of Jennings playing without Pearsall, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel going back to last year, with Jennings getting targeted on 26% of those routes with 2.08 yards per route run.

Everyone remembers his 175-yard, 3-touchdown game in Los Angeles a year ago.

We have not seen Jennings reach 100 yards in a game since then, but the cupboard is bare here.

The Rams have also had issues these past two weeks since losing Ahkello Witherspoon.

The past two weeks, the Rams have allowed 29 receptions (28th) for 356 yards to wide receivers (29th) with 3 touchdowns.

49ers WRs: San Francisco is entering Week 4 with question marks as to who will be available for them at wide receiver.

We need to keep an eye on the practice reports on Wednesday, as both Jennings and Pearsall are dealing with injuries.

Pearsall appears to have a PCL injury, which makes it less likely for him to be available. However, we will continue to monitor his progress.

Should Pearsall be inactive, then Kendrick Bourne and Demarcus Robinson will be set up for more opportunities.

After Pearsall exited Sunday, Bourne was on the field for 62.5% of the dropbacks, and Robinson was at 50%.

Both of those wideouts would not be viable options outside of the deepest formats, but would get a pulse in single-game DFS.

Tight End

Jake Tonges: Tonges caught 3 of 5 targets for 58 yards on Sunday, which included a 23-yard screen that he took into the end zone for his second touchdown of the year.

Tonges has had the edge on Luke Farrell, running a route on 69.1% of the dropbacks since George Kittle’s injury compared to a 36.9% rate for Farrell.

Tonges has been targeted on 15.5% of his routes with 1.21 yards per route.

We could see more target opportunities based on the state of the wide receiver room, but Tonges is a touchdown-dependent TE2 for gamers in need.

There is some matchup appeal here if chasing.

The Rams have allowed 7.9 yards per target (26th) and a 76% catch rate (20th) to tight ends.

Tyler Higbee: Higbee only has 6 catches for 62 yards on the season.

He has been on the field for a team-high 64.1% of the dropbacks, but the Rams are 28th in target rate to tight ends (15%).

Higbee is only an option as a dart throw as a touchdown-or-bust option in single-game DFS.

The 49ers are still a team that we are not aggressive with when it comes to tight ends.

San Francisco is allowing 5.2 yards per target (5th) to tight ends.

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