The Worksheet, a comprehensive fantasy football preview by Rich Hribar, breaks down everything you need to know about the Week 1 matchup between the Seahawks and 49ers.
Find a breakdown of every Week 1 NFL game in our Worksheet Hub.
San Francisco | Rank | @ | Seattle | Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|
-2.5 | Spread | 2.5 | ||
23.0 | Implied Total | 20.5 | ||
22.9 | 14 | Points/Gm | 22.1 | 17 |
25.6 | 29 | Points All./Gm | 21.6 | 13 |
60.4 | 28 | Plays/Gm | 60.6 | 25 |
60.5 | 7 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 62.6 | 21 |
6.2 | 3 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 12 |
5.2 | 7 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 11 |
44.54% | 13 | Rush% | 37.18% | 28 |
55.46% | 20 | Pass% | 62.82% | 5 |
46.26% | 23 | Opp. Rush % | 42.35% | 12 |
53.74% | 10 | Opp. Pass % | 57.65% | 21 |
- San Francisco was 1-5 in division games in 2024, their worst record in those games since 2018.
- Seattle was 2-6-1 against the spread at home last season, tied for the second-worst record in the league.
- San Francisco was a league-worst 1-7 against the spread on the road last season.
- San Francisco led the NFL in pass plays of 20 or more yards in 2024 (66), but only four were for touchdowns (27th).
- Seattle allowed a touchdown on 19.1% of opponent possessions, fifth in the league.
- Seattle forced a three and out on 38.7% of opponent possessions, second in the league.
- The 49ers forced a three and out on 34.3% of opponent possessions, fifth in the league.
- The 49ers were 9th in the NFL in first-half point differential last season (+47), but ranked dead last in second-half point differential (-94).
- The 49ers allowed a 68.4% red zone touchdown rate in 2024, 31st in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Brock Purdy: Purdy experienced some natural regression last season, but he still had a strong year during which he demonstrated his ability to produce in this system, regardless of who was available each week.
Purdy ended his third season with 8.5 yards per pass attempt (third) and fifth in EPA per dropback (0.17).
He ranked fourth in success rate (49.8%).
That happened in a season in which the 49ers ran 57 total plays with Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle all on the field together.
And that's not even considering the offensive line injuries.
Trent Williams missed a career-high 7 games last season.
Despite all of that, Purdy still ranked QB10 in points per game (17.8).
With all the injuries to the San Francisco skill players, McCaffrey had the most significant impact.
Without McCaffrey for nearly the entire season, teams played more coverage than ever against the 49ers.
Only 49% of Purdy’s dropbacks came with the middle of the field closed (single high safeties) after 59.9% and 60.5% during his first two years in the league.
Despite that, Purdy was still one of the best downfield passers in the league.
He completed a league-high 57.9% of his passes on throws 10 or more yards downfield (the league rate was 48.5%).
Purdy also used his legs more in 2024.
He added 4.2 rushing points per game after averaging 1.7 points per game in 2023 and 0.8 points per game in 2022.
I am expecting Purdy to bounce back this season, but this is a spot that raises some trepidation, given the pursuit of a ceiling outcome.
I view him more as a floor-based fantasy option on the QB1 line in Week 1.
The San Francisco wide receiver room has been beaten up this summer.
Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings returning from his calf/hold-in can be a solid unit surrounding Kittle and McCaffrey, but they run into a tough Seattle secondary.
The Seahawks have a strong pass defense on paper.
In their first season under Mike Macdonald and Aden Durde, Seattle allowed 6.9 yards per pass attempt (10th) and ranked 13th in passing points allowed per attempt (0.407).
In Purdy’s two games against Seattle, he was the QB6 (24.1 points) and the QB15 (18.4 points).
Riq Woolen did not play in that first matchup.
Without Woolen on the field last season, Seattle allowed 7.5 Y/A (24th), a 5.9% touchdown rate (31st), and a 98.2 rating (26th).
With him on the field, they allowed 6.8 Y/A (7th), a 4.2% touchdown rate (12th), and an 89.0 rating (11th).
Sam Darnold: Seattle shook up their quarterback room this offseason, signing Darnold in free agency.
Darnold is coming off his best season in the NFL, finishing 16th among qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (0.06).
He had some strong efficiency metrics, posting 7.9 yards per pass attempt (6th) and a 6.4% touchdown rate (5th), but he was a boom-or-bust performer.
28.2% of his dropbacks earned 1.0 EPA or more (3rd in the league), but 17.7% also produced a loss of 1.0 EPA or worse (25th).
Darnold had an 8.1% sack rate (28th) and a 2.2% interception rate (19th).
His 3.7% turnover-worthy throw rate ranked 32nd.
Darnold’s best season also ended on a significant down note, as he completed just 53.1% of his passes for 5.1 Y/A with an interception and 11 sacks in the Week 18 game for the No. 1 seed in the NFC and the Wild Card loss to the Rams.
Darnold will reunite with Klint Kubiak, who was with the 49ers in 2023.
Kubiak runs a system that can coax out the best of what we saw from Darnold last season, and the coach got some of the best football from Derek Carr when he was with the New Orleans Saints.
Carr had career-high rates using play action and pre-snap motion last year.
Carr was fifth in the league in dropbacks with motion (60.7%) and 11th in use of play action (27.2%).
Darnold was at his best last year when using play-action.
His 130.2 rating was second in the NFL using play action. He completed 72.2% of his passes (8th) for 10.1 Y/A (5th) and a 10.1% touchdown rate (2nd).
Kubiak will primarily focus on keeping Darnold clean and calling games to insulate an offensive line full of questions.
Darnold’s negative plays were driven by pressure.
When pressured, he had a 3% interception rate (18th) and a 22.1% sack rate (23rd).
San Francisco was not strong at pressuring the quarterback in 2024, ranking 22nd in the league in pressure rate (32.9%).
While Darnold has strengths that align with the new system, his pass catchers require some scrutiny for fit and are not as strong as the group he worked with in Minnesota.
Even for all of San Francisco’s issues a year ago, they still only allowed 12.9 passing points per game (seventh) and 6.8 yards per pass attempt (fourth).
Kubiak is familiar with the 49ers and Robert Saleh, at least.
Saleh takes over as defensive coordinator for the 49ers, as the team has overhauled its defense through a youth movement around Fred Warner and Nick Bosa.
Warner is now the “oldest” starter for the 49ers on defense at 28 years old.
The 49ers are expected to start two rookies in the secondary this season, with fifth-round pick Marques Sigle at safety and third-rounder Upton Stout at nickelback.
First-rounder Mykel Williams is going to start at EDGE, while we will see fellow rookies C.J. West, Alfred Collins, and Nick Martin all get on the field.
They also added Bryce Huff via trade in hopes that he can reclaim the production he had under Saleh to open his career.
The Seattle offense and the San Francisco offense have several moving parts we will be feeling out in Week 1, leaving Darnold as a boom-or-bust QB2.
Running Back
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Dolphins @ Colts | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Raiders @ Patriots | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Cardinals @ Saints | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Steelers @ Jets | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Giants @ Commanders | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Panthers @ Jaguars | Sunday -- 1 p.m. ET |
Titans @ Broncos | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
49ers @ Seahawks | Sunday -- 4:05 p.m. ET |
Lions @ Packers | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Texans @ Rams | Sunday -- 4:25 p.m. ET |
Ravens @ Bills -- FREE | Sunday Night Football |
Vikings @ Bears -- FREE | Monday Night Football |