Since becoming the Packers’ full-time starter in 2008, Aaron Rodgers has finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback 11 times.
In addition to 12 seasons with 25+ touchdown passes, the veteran signal caller has thrown for 300 yards in 30.9% of his regular season starts.
After a legendary run with the Green Bay Packers, Rodgers has been traded to the Jets.
What is Aaron Rodgers’ Fantasy Football Value?
While Rodgers has been one of the best fantasy quarterbacks over the last 15 years, the 2022 season was not his best.
After registering 20 or more fantasy points in 21 games over the previous two seasons, Rodgers failed to hit 20 points in a game last season. He also had an interception rate of 2.2%, his highest since 2017.
A large reason for these struggles was the broken thumb he suffered on his throwing hand in Week 5.
A credit to Rodgers, he finished with the fifth-most passing touchdowns (26) and had an adjusted completion percentage of 75.8 even with the injury.
Among the 11 quarterbacks with 500+ pass attempts in 2022, Rodgers had the sixth-best touchdown rate (4.8%).
These numbers had the former Packer finishing 13th in fantasy points by a quarterback.
Beyond fantasy numbers, a reason to expect success for Rodgers is him reuniting with Jets OC Nathaniel Hackett.
In the three seasons Hackett was a coordinator in Green Bay, Rodgers threw 111 touchdowns.
One of the bigger indicators of a player’s fantasy value is where they are being drafted at their position.
Last season, Rodgers was projected as the 12th quarterback off the board with the final pick of the eighth round.
With players like Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow at the position along with Rodgers being on a new team and another year older, his ADP is likely to fall somewhere similar to where it was last season.
This is what makes Rodgers an exceptional value. Waiting to select a quarterback in the later rounds of a draft allows you the opportunity to load up on other positions.
If there is a cause for concern with Rodgers and his value, it is the Jets’ offensive line.
In 2022, the line finished 21st in pass blocking success rate (57%). This is a far cry from the Packers finishing fifth (66%).
Even with offensive line concerns, all signs point to Rodgers returning to his top-12 quarterback form.
How Will Aaron Rodgers Affect Garrett Wilson?
While Allen Lazard is also coming to the Jets from the Packers, the Rodgers trade will draw a lot of attention to second-year receiver Garrett Wilson.
Despite the Jets finishing 31st last season in passing touchdowns on a per-game basis, Wilson still managed to finish 19th in wide receiver scoring.
Targeted 147 times in his rookie season, Wilson finished 14th among wide receivers with 1,103 receiving yards and had three games with 20 or more fantasy points.
The insertion of Rodgers into the offense will undoubtedly pay dividends for Wilson.
In the 11 seasons that Rodgers finished as a top-12 quarterback, a wide receiver in his offense finished as a top-12 receiver nine times.
Look for the duo of Rodgers and Wilson to connect in the red zone as well.
In his rookie season, Wilson caught three of his four touchdowns inside the red zone.
Tending to lean on his favorite target, in the last two years he played with Davante Adams, Rodgers targeted his No. 1 receiver 55 times for 24 touchdowns in the red zone.
For those skeptical of Rodgers’ willingness to heavily target a younger wide receiver, look no further than this past season when 23-year-old Christian Watson was targeted 66 times in 11 games and connected on seven touchdowns.
How Does Rodgers Impact Other Jets Players?
Before Rodgers was finally traded to the Jets, the team signed Allen Lazard to a four-year, $44 million contract.
In his five seasons with Rodgers, Lazard scored 20 touchdowns and averaged 8.6 yards per target.
Last year in particular, Lazard finished 32nd in half-point formats with a career-high 788 yards receiving and six touchdowns.
In terms of a positive impact, Lazard’s chemistry with Rodgers immediately puts him ahead of most Jets pass catchers.
While Breece Hall is working his way back from an ACL tear, being in an offense with a quarterback like Rodgers will keep defenses from stacking the box.
This will provide more opportunities for Hall, who averaged 5.8 yards per carry last season.
Last season, the Jets’ wide receiver and running back positions finished in the bottom 12 in fantasy points scored. The inclusion of Rodgers will drastically improve New York’s skill position numbers.