AFC Championship Game DFS Showdown Analysis: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

The Sunday night Showdown for the Conference Championship features a rematch between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas Chiefs. My thoughts for Showdown are below, and be sure to check out Rich Hribar’s Fantasy Football Worksheet for a full breakdown of Buffalo at Kansas City.

With two of the pass-heaviest teams in a projected shootout, the path to differentiation will be through going underweight on the QBs, at least at CPT, while being overweight on RBs and/or less-popular pass-catchers.

Josh Allen projects as the top play with ownership projections having him as the second most-owned player and CPT. Stefon Diggs has been elite and consistent, and the only argument against using him is that he will be a popular choice because his ceiling is monstrous. He’s one of my favorite plays, and including additional Buffalo receivers should help bring down cumulative ownership.

John Brown and Cole Beasley have a similar projection, but the latter is discounted coming off of a goose egg last week. Brown also posted a zero the week before that, so my lean is towards Beasley at the price discount, though his exposure is projected significantly higher. Gabriel Davis is expected out, making Isaiah McKenzie an awesome value. Dawson Knox has a low ceiling but is not ignored near the endzone, so a multi-TD game is possible though unlikely. He offers some leverage but at his price, I’m not interested.

Devin Singletary leads the backfield with Zack Moss still out. The problem is that the Bills are happy to pass on nearly every play, and Singletary loses some goal-line rushes to Allen. He’s projected for nearly 5% at CPT which seems a bit high given his lack of ceiling. Including him in line ups with Allen could be contrarian. T.J. Yeldon is the change of pace back and can be worked on as an MME dart-throw.

In spite of his injury issues, Patrick Mahomes Is projected as the most popular player and CPT, but I do think his ceiling is reduced due to his lower body injury. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce will both be right near Diggs’s exposure. I have a strong preference for Kelce here, given how Hill’s production has been limited in this matchup and the Bills’ weakness against TE’s.

The Chiefs are not expecting Sammy Watkins (Q) to play, but they will decide after warmups. He has been a beast in the playoffs with Mahomes, and if he is available it will heavily reduce the projections for Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson. Hardman and Robinson project closely, but the former had a better score last week and the latter is significantly cheaper.

There is uncertainty in the backfield, with Le’Veon Bell out and Clyde Edwards-Helaire expected to play but with his full status unknown. CEH is expected to play and share work with Darrell Williams. Projections vary wildly, ranging from Williams as slightly better to CEH projecting for over twice as many points. I would personally prefer Williams, who looked great last week and is fully healthy, at 18% projected ownership compared to 25% for CEH.

Ownership:

Mahomes (17% CPT / 76% Total) and Allen (14% / 70%) lead the way.
Kelce, Hill and Diggs are next, grouped between 10-12% CPT / 45-50% Total projected ownership. Any or all of these three high-ceiling options could be better options for CPT than their QB.
Beasley and Singletary are between 33-38%, with everyone else projected below 27%.
Darrell Williams ownership should shoot up near Singletary or higher if CEH is ruled out. Otherwise, I like Williams as a slight leverage play over CEH, who is my favorite fade.
Mixing in lower owned pass-catchers like John Brown, Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson and Isaiah McKenzie will help differentiate, especially if using one from each team. The kickers and DSTs will go under-owned as well.

DK Values: