The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 2 Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Sunday Night Football game.
| Chicago | Rank | @ | Green Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Spread | -10 | ||
| 16.5 | Implied Total | 26.5 | ||
| 19 | 22 | Points/Gm | 7 | 30 |
| 10 | 5 | Points All./Gm | 23 | 20 |
| 56 | 27 | Plays/Gm | 61 | 19 |
| 67 | 24 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 61 | 12 |
| 3.6 | 32 | Off. Yards/Play | 5.5 | 16 |
| 10 | 4.9 | Def. Yards/Play | 27 | 6.5 |
| 66.07% | 1 | Rush% | 29.51% | 27 |
| 33.93% | 32 | Pass% | 70.49% | 6 |
| 55.22% | 31 | Opp. Rush % | 45.90% | 24 |
| 44.78% | 2 | Opp. Pass % | 54.10% | 9 |
- The Packers are 6-0 straight up and against the spread against Chicago under Matt LaFleur.
- Aaron Rodgers-led teams are 23-5 all-time against the Bears.
- Rodgers averaged 2.5 air yards per completed pass in Week 1, the lowest in the league.
- Rodgers was 2-of-7 for 15 yards (2.1 Y/A) under pressure in Week 1 compared to 20-of-27 for 180 yards (6.7 Y/A) when kept clean.
- The Bears averaged a league-low 2.9 yards per play on first down.
- 47.1% of the Green Bay rushing attempts resulted in a first down or touchdown, the highest rate in Week 1. League average was 25.1%.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers: When Rodgers had a 75-yard touchdown pass dropped on his first possession, terrible things were set in motion. It only got worse from there as Rodgers closed the week as the QB32 (3.7 points) for fantasy. Rodgers was 27th in EPA per dropback, 28th in air yards per attempt (5.6 yards), and dead last in air yards per completion in Week 1. The potential early touchdown would have lifted all areas, but everything was still as bad as possible surrounding that play in a multiverse where Christian Watson catches that pass.
Rodgers and the Packers kicked off the 2021 season as poorly as Sunday, but we have a lot more questions surrounding this roster than the one from a year ago. Green Bay targeted their wide receivers 45.7% of the time (31st), which led to the paltry depth of target and completion for Rodgers. League rate was 59.1% while the Green Bay rate in 2021 was 63.9% (eighth).
Even expecting improvement over the low bar set in Week 1, the supporting cast for Rodgers still needs to make a massive jump.
The good news is that the Packers are still a large home favorite attached to a strong team total, an environment to provide an objective look at Rodgers as having a higher floor, but I still only view him as a fringe QB1 option similar to where his ADP was until we see these wideouts contribute.
The Bears have a young defense that we are expecting can still be exploited over what we had seen from them a week ago facing Trey Lance in heavy rain.
