One of the biggest and least appreciated differences between best ball and DFS is the factor of uncertainty and how it plays into both making individual lineups but also our larger portfolio’s exposure on players.
In DFS, we have the certainty of knowing usage and roles, especially after a few weeks.
We have much more uncertainty in best ball, and the earlier in the offseason we draft, the more uncertainty we have.
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Uncertainty in Best Ball Drafts
The more uncertainty the more benefit there is in hedging on your early roster shares as there is not only uncertainty but more time for players to get injured.
One of the huge edges I have tried to explain throughout this series is that being good at reading the tea leaves along with taking bets on talented players who have uncertainty can reap great rewards.
Also, as we mix in stacks and correlations with Week 17, our exposure grows broader.
For all of these reasons, keeping exposure low before camp is a good idea.
As camp opens a couple of things happen.
This speeds up quickly once we actually have preseason games and get a larger hint at what teams think of players.
So now we have both more certainty and fewer values as the market is much more efficient the closer we get to the season.
So what do we do?
Draft Your Guys Close to the Season
Well, some of the players we really like might still be good values and this is the time to hit those players HARD and build up our exposures on our true conviction plays at ADP.
Also, there are other opportunities on players that come up as the public overreacts to information.
The perfect example of that last year was Josh Jacobs’ ADP dropping two rounds just because he played in the first preseason game.
We think we know why coaches do certain things, but the field is so desperate for an edge it often gets way too far out over its skis.
This is the time to hit volume, beef up exposures to your maximum comfort level, and put ourselves in the best position to win. With more information and more certainty comes fewer opportunities, so we should be hitting the opportunities we like best even harder down the stretch.
