The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 14 Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Sunday afternoon game.
| Buffalo | Rank | @ | Tampa Bay | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Spread | -3 | ||
| 24.8 | Implied Total | 27.8 | ||
| 28 | 5 | Points/Gm | 31.4 | 1 |
| 16.3 | 2 | Points All./Gm | 22.5 | 16 |
| 64.8 | 9 | Plays/Gm | 66.3 | 5 |
| 59.2 | 1 | Opp. Plays/Gm | 63.3 | 15 |
| 5.8 | 8 | Off. Yards/Play | 6.1 | 3 |
| 4.6 | 1 | Def. Yards/Play | 5.3 | 8 |
| 39.90% | 20 | Rush% | 33.08% | 32 |
| 60.10% | 13 | Pass% | 66.92% | 1 |
| 44.79% | 25 | Opp. Rush % | 32.81% | 1 |
| 55.21% | 8 | Opp. Pass % | 67.19% | 32 |
- The Buccaneers are the only offense in the league that is in the top-five in expected points added per pass attempt (0.28) and per rushing attempt (0.09).
- The Buccaneers are first in the NFL in points per drive (2.72) while the Bills are fourth (2.53).
- The Bills are second in the league in points allowed per drive (1.44) defensively.
- Buffalo leads the NFL in passing rate on first down plays outside of the fourth quarter (61%) while Tampa Bay is third (58%).
- 20.3% of the offensive plays run by Tampa Bay have come from inside of the red zone, first in the league.
- Buffalo is at 18.8%, third in the league.
- Tom Brady leads the league in fantasy points scored inside of the 10-yard line (81.9 points) while Josh Allen is second (77.5 points).
- Tampa Bay games are averaging a combined 53.9 points per game, the most in the league.
Trust = spike production for that player
Quarterback
Tom Brady: Brady bounced back after a small lull in output to throw for 368 yards and four touchdown passes on Sunday. It was his sixth games with four or more touchdown passes on the season while no other passer has more than two of those games this year.
Entering Week 13, Brady had thrown for fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in four of his previous five games. The Bills are tops in the league in just about every passing metric and have been all season, allowing a 2.2% touchdown rate, 5.7 yards per pass attempt, and a 57.8% completion rate, all first in the league.
Their schedule has been incredibly light so far, facing just one fantasy QB1 on the season in Patrick Mahomes, who we have seen have plenty of his own issues outside of the Buffalo game. This will be the largest test for the Bills this season, but we also have seen Brady have plenty of mortal moments over the second half of the season.
The Bills lead the league in pressure rate (30.0%), something that will be vital here. Brady has only been pressured on 19.9% of his dropbacks, the lowest rate in the league. When he has been pressured, however, Brady has a -2.0-yard difference per pass attempt (5.8 Y/A) from when kept clean (7.8 Y/A), which is 31st in the league.
This is the largest game total of the week and comes with a tight point spread, so there are potential fireworks to be had with Brady as a QB1 despite the unknown element of finding out just how good this Buffalo defense really is against a high-level offense.
