Bills vs Cardinals Fantasy Football Worksheet, Week 10

The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 10 Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals Sunday afternoon game.

Buffalo	Rank	@	Arizona	Rank
1.5		Spread	-1.5
27.25		Implied Total	28.75
26.9	14	Points/Gm	29.2	6
25.9	19	Points All./Gm	22.5	8
63.2	22	Plays/Gm	67.8	6
63.3	11	Opp. Plays/Gm	67.6	26
40.3%	18	Rush%	46.7%	7
59.8%	15	Pass%	53.3%	26
43.0%	19	Opp. Rush %	40.7%	14
57.0%	14	Opp. Pass %	59.3%	19

Kyler Murray is first in the league in fantasy points per drop back (.77) while Josh Allen is fourth (.64).
Murray’s 23 rushes of 10 or more yards trails only Dalvin Cook (25) on the season.
Buffalo has a league-high 18 offensive touchdowns scored inside of the opponent’s 5-yard line.
Allen has scored a league-high 71.4 fantasy points from inside of the 5-yard line. The next closest player (Russell Wilson) has scored 45.1.
47.9% of Allen’s pass attempts have come on first downs, the highest rate in the league.
On those first down passes, Allen leads the league in quarterback rating (119.7), completing 74.8% of his passes for 9.7 yards per pass attempt.
17.4% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps have come from inside the red zone, trailing only the Saints (18.8%).
Buffalo is averaging 3.2 red zone opportunities per game on the road (20th) as opposed to 5.2 per game at home (first).

Trust = spike production for that player
Bust = down-week production for that player’s standards

Quarterback

Kyler Murray (TRUST): Murray has been a top-10 scorer in every game and a top-five score in all but one. He now has the most fantasy points scored through eight games of any season for a quarterback. A big reason for the takeoff is that his passing stats are taking off. He has been a consistent rusher all season, leading the position with 12.8 rushing points per game, but Murray is averaging 19.6 passing points per game over his past five after a slow start 12.5 per game the first three weeks of the season. Matchups hardly matter for Murray at this stage, but the Bills have also allowed 18.4 points or more to seven straight quarterbacks.

Josh Allen: After four straight QB2 scoring weeks, Allen crushed his bounce back spot last week with a season-high 36.0 fantasy points, passing for 415 yards and tallying four touchdowns. Allen has been a touch matchup-sensitive, but Arizona is not a team to be scared of. Arizona pushes the pace of opponents and have allowed 18.5 fantasy points to every quarterback they have faced outside of Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Dwayne Haskins. Allen has been a touch worse against the blitz this season, averaging 7.3 Y/A and completing 62.9% of his passes when teams send heat as opposed to a 72.8% completion rate and 8.8 Y/A versus a normal pass rush this season. That may come into play as Arizona blitzes at the fifth-highest rate in the league (40.0%), but Arizona does not get home on par with their blitz rate, ranking 16th in pressure rate (22.6%). In another potential shootout, Allen is firmly a high-end QB1.

Running Back

Chase Edmonds: Edmonds did his best to actually fill in for Kenyan Drake last week, turning 28 touches into 88 yards as Arizona got away from using him in space as the feature back. On the positive end of things, Edmonds played a league-high 96% of the offensive snaps for running backs in Week 9 and handled 28-of-30 backfield touches. If Drake were to miss another week with his ankle injury, we at worst are walking back into a volume-based RB2 while the Bills are allowing 136.3 yards per game to backfields (18th).

*Drake is a game-time call, but did practice in some capacity every day this week. That is typically a signal that he will take the field in some capacity this Sunday, but we are likely look at an early-return time share in the Arizona backfield.

Bills RBs: Zack Moss has played more snaps than Devin Singletary in each of the past two weeks and last week was the first time that he out-touched Singletary in a game 11-to-5. In the six games the two have played together, Moss has handled six carries inside of the 5-yard line, which has helped Moss find his way to RB2 production since he still has managed a season-high of 81 total yards in a game this season with a game-high of 14 touches. Singletary has not been a top-24 scorer in any of the six games played with Moss while his two carries last week were a season-low. Moss is a touchdown-dependent RB3/FLEX while Singletary is a low-ceiling RB4 option.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs: Through nine games, Diggs has already matched the 63 receptions he had a year ago in Minnesota while he has just three fewer targets than he had all of last season. Leading the league in catches and yardage through the air, Diggs has 34% of the team’s targets and 41% of the team’s air yards over the past five games. Arizona is 23rd in points allowed per game to opposing WR1 options (16.2) and 23rd in receptions allowed per game to those options (5.8), giving Diggs another avenue to remain a volume-based WR1.

DeAndre Hopkins: Hopkins is coming off a season-low three targets after receiving seven or more looks in each of his first seven games of the season. He did draw multiple pass interference penalties, but sadly, we do not get anything from those. In two of the past three games, Hopkins has two and three catches. Since Week 4, Hopkins has alternated WR4 scoring weeks with top-10 ones. Hopkins has posted overall lines of 6-90-0 and 5-63-1 in two games involving Tre’Davious White, catching 6-of-7 targets for 97 yards in Whites coverage in those games. White also picked up an ankle injury to close last week. We will have to see the severity of that injury and his availability this week. Hopkins may not have a ceiling week if White checks out fine, but remains a WR1 option just as D.K. Metcalf did a week ago in a similar spot.

John Brown: Taking advantage of a stellar matchup, Brown turned in season-highs across the board last week, catching 8-of-11 targets for 99 yards against Seattle. Brown may run into another strong draw here as Arizona could be missing both Dre Kirkpatrick, who sat out last week with a thigh injury and Kevin Peterson, who is concussion protocol, on the back end this weekend as Brown returns to Arizona. Brown had five catches for 63 yards over his previous three games and played 87% of the snaps in those games, so he still carries low-floor potential, but Brown is an upside WR3 option in a potential shootout and the Arizona secondary potentially missing some bodies.

Christian Kirk: Kirk has been a top-30 scoring wideout in each of his past four games with at least seven targets in three of his past four. His 30.8% target share last week was a season-high. Kirk is the deep threat here for Arizona, leading the team with 13 targets on throws over 15 yards downfield. Buffalo is allowing a 55.3% completion rate on those targets, which is 30th in the league. Kirk has benefited from scoring six touchdowns over his past five games, but has moved into weekly WR3 with upside potential with his attachment to Murray.

Cole Beasley: Beasley has secured just five passes for 63 yards the past two weeks. In the six full games that Brown has played, Beasley has a 14.6% target share and is averaging 44.7 yards per game. In the other three weeks, he has games of 6-100-0, 6-53-0, and 11-112-0 on 20.5% of the team’s targets. Arizona has struggled with interior options such as Jamison Crowder and CeeDee Lamb, but that was also the case for the Seattle matchup a week ago, leaving Beasley as a floor-based WR4/FLEX.

More Week 10 Fantasy breakdowns from The Worksheet: