The Worksheet, a fantasy football overview by Rich Hribar, breaking down everything you need to know for the Week 13 Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots Thursday Night Football game.

BuffaloRank@New EnglandRank
-4.5Spread4.5
24Implied Total19.5
28.12Points/Gm21.718
18.15Points All./Gm18.46
65.88Plays/Gm60.127
6316Opp. Plays/Gm61.911
6.32Off. Yards/Play5.417
5.29Def. Yards/Play57
39.23%21Rush%45.08%12
60.77%12Pass%54.92%21
39.54%6Opp. Rush %41.56%12
60.46%27Opp. Pass %58.44%21
  • Every Bills road game has gone under the game total (6-0 towards the under).
  • The Patriots have 42 completions of 20 or more yards, tied for third in the league.
  • Buffalo has 40 completions of 20 or more yards, sixth in the league.
  • New England has converted 38.7% (12-of-31) of their red zone possessions into touchdowns, ahead of only the Broncos (37.5%).
  • The Bills have scored a touchdown on 37.9% of their drives in the first half of games, second in the league.
  • New England has scored a touchdown on 12.1% of their drives in the first half, 29th in the league.
  • Since Week 8, Buffalo has scored a touchdown on 2-of-27 drives in the second half (7.4%), the lowest rate in the league.
  • Over the same span, New England has scored a touchdown on 2-of-26 (7.7%) drives in the second half, 31st in the league.
  • The Bills are allowing 37.6 yards per drive (30th) since Week 5 after allowing 23.6 yards per drive prior (second).
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Quarterback

Josh Allen: Allen was still not quite himself on Thanksgiving, but by notching another QB1 overall scoring performance it shows just much of an impact he can have for fantasy even when he is not at his best. At the end of the day, Allen still threw a pair of touchdown passes while rushing for 78 yards and a score, posting 29.9 fantasy points. 

Allen only completed 57.1% of his passes against Detroit, his third game with a completion rate below 60% over his past five outings. Allen threw for just 6.0 yards per pass attempt, his fourth game in a row below 8.0 yards per attempt after hitting that mark in five of his opening seven games. 

Where Allen particularly struggled last week and appeared most off was in the quick game. He threw for just 3.3 Y/A on throws under 10 yards from the line of scrimmage, ahead of only Marcus Mariota last week. 

Detroit gave Buffalo wideouts and Allen a headache in man coverage. Allen was 3-of-13 passing for 55 yards against man looks in Detroit while taking two sacks. The Patriots have played man coverage on 41.7% of opposing passing plays, the second-highest rate in the league.

New England is allowing just 12.2 passing points per game (ninth) on the year, but as we highlighted last week, they have arguably faced the worst quarterback schedule in the league from a passing stance. After coasting through a three-game run that saw them face Zach Wilson twice and Sam Ehlinger, they allowed 21.9 passing points to Kirk Cousins last week. 

Outside of the infamous “wind game” that these two teams played a year ago, Allen threw for 314 and 308 yards in the other two meetings with eight touchdowns and zero interceptions.  

He also rushed for 64 and 66 yards in the latter two meetings. The Patriots have had their hands full with mobile quarterbacks so far once again this season, allowing 107 yards and a score to Lamar Jackson and 82 yards and a score to Justin Fields on the ground. 

Something is still off with Allen and his elbow, but we know the Bills will remain aggressive and he has so much touchdown equity in the offense to get there through the air and on the ground as a front-end QB1 option.

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